The highs and lows of the 2025 federal election campaign | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Cost of living relief
• Fuel excise cut
• Supermarket price gouging
• East Coast gas reservation
• Public service cuts
• Nuclear energy policy
• Medicare bulk billing incentive
• Tax deductions (mortgage interest, business lunches, electric vehicles)
• Migrant intake reduction
• Cost of living tax offset
• First home buyer deposit scheme
• Defense spending
• Scare campaigns (negative gearing, inheritance tax, Indigenous Voice)
• October Surprise

1. Policy Promises and Lack of Detail

• The coalition promised a fuel excise cut for 12 months, with a review to follow.
• Labor adopted the Green's policy to make supermarket price gouging illegal.
• The coalition's policies were often criticized for lacking detail, such as the East Coast gas reservation policy.

2. Coalition's Campaign Struggles

• The coalition was perceived as unprepared, with a lack of detailed policies and difficulty handling scrutiny.
• The campaign was dominated by the coalition's policy missteps rather than the government's actions or external factors like Donald Trump.
• The coalition faced backflips on policies like work from home arrangements for public servants and public service cuts.
  • The initial policy was to reduce the public service by 41,000 in CRA, but this was later clarified.

3. Nuclear Energy Policy

• The coalition's most expensive and politically risky pledge was nuclear energy.
• Peter Dutton was criticized for not visiting potential nuclear power plant sites.

4. Economic Messaging and Cost of Living

• The coalition tried to focus on the economy and cost of living concerns.
• A cut in interest rates and positive inflation news blunted the coalition's message.

5. Government's Focus on Medicare

• The government emphasized Medicare, promising to expand the bulk billing incentive.
• Doctors warned that the scheme might not be effective.

6. Greens' Ambitious Agenda

• The Greens proposed ambitious policies, including world-class public services like housing, health, education, and public transport, heavily subsidized or free.
• They advocated for 50-cent fares for buses, trains, ferries, and trams.

7. Abandoned or Confusing Policies

• The coalition faced confusion over tax breaks for electric vehicles and a refusal to outline how it would cut 100,000 migrant arrivals.
• A policy to make business lunches tax-deductible for small businesses seemed to disappear.

8. Vote Buying Spree and Campaign Launch Promises

• Both major parties engaged in a "vote buying spree" at their campaign launches.
• Coalition: One-off cost of living tax offset, deduct interest payments on the first $650,000 of a mortgage.
• Labor: $1,000 instant tax deduction, first home buyer scheme with a 5% deposit.

9. Campaign Trail Gaffes

• Peter Dutton was questioned about not supporting a candidate with housing.
• Dutton stated "I'm not a scientist" when asked about climate change.

10. Late Campaign Shifts and Scare Tactics

• Labor's primary vote started to rise, while the coalition's and Peter Dutton's approval declined.
• The coalition announced a $20 billion defense spending commitment two days before Anzac Day.
• The coalition was accused of running scare campaigns about secret labor plans on negative gearing, an inheritance tax, and for an Indigenous Voice.

11. "October Surprise" and the Voice Debate

• The "October Surprise" equivalent was the "One Nation wobble" and the "Voice wobble."
• Penny Wong's comments on the Voice led to suggestions of a secret plan to bring back legislation for it.
• This scare tactic resonated with voters feeling disconnected and disengaged.

12. Conclusion

The campaign was marked by the coalition's policy missteps, a lack of clear messaging, and late attempts to regain momentum through scare tactics. The government focused on Medicare and cost of living relief, while the Greens presented an ambitious vision for public services. The "October Surprise" centered on the Voice debate, highlighting voter concerns about being disconnected from the political process.