White House pushes new 28-point peace plan with concessions Ukraine previously rejected

Key Concepts

• 28-Point Plan: A proposed framework drafted by the Trump administration aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Security Guarantees: Assurances of safety and defense for Ukraine.
• Territorial Concessions: Ukraine giving up portions of its territory.
• Military Size Cap: Limiting the size of Ukraine's armed forces.
• NATO Troop Ban: Preventing NATO from deploying troops to Ukraine.
• Demilitarization: The process of disarming or reducing military forces in a specific area.
• De Facto Recognition: Acknowledging a situation as if it were legally established, even without formal legal recognition.
• Sanctions Relief: The lifting of economic penalties imposed on Russia.
• Amnesty: A pardon for offenses committed.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Russian financial assets that have been seized and are inaccessible.
• Aggression vs. Victim: The principle of placing pressure on the aggressor rather than the party being attacked.
• Capitulation: Surrender.
• Poison Pills: Provisions in a plan or agreement that are designed to be unacceptable and thus prevent the plan from being adopted.

Trump Administration's 28-Point Plan for Ukraine

The "PBS News Hour" has obtained a 28-point plan developed by the Trump administration with the objective of ending the war in Ukraine. This document is central to an ongoing diplomatic visit to Kyiv by U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll.

Key Provisions of the Plan:

• Ukrainian Security Guarantees: The plan includes provisions for security guarantees for Ukraine, a demand that Ukraine has been making.
• Territorial Concessions: A significant demand is that Ukraine must cede territory. Specifically, Ukraine would have to give up the portion of the Donetsk region it currently controls. This territory would be internationally recognized as Russian but would be demilitarized.
• Military Size Cap: Ukraine would be required to limit the size of its military.
• NATO Restrictions: The plan explicitly blocks NATO from sending troops to Ukraine and proposes a change in NATO's language to preclude Ukraine's future admission.
• De Facto Recognition of Russian Control: The U.S. would recognize the Donbass, occupied Crimea, and the occupied portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as de facto Russian. This would grant Russia control over the entire Donbass region.
• Sanctions Relief: The U.S. would lift sanctions on Russia in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
• Amnesty: All parties involved would receive "full amnesty" for their actions during the conflict.
• Reconstruction Fund: $100 billion of frozen Russian assets would be allocated for Ukrainian reconstruction.

U.S. officials have emphasized that this is a "working document."

Diplomatic Visit and Reactions

U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is on an "unusual diplomatic mission" in Kyiv, presenting this new American framework to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

• Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Response: Zelenskyy stated that his teams would work on the proposals constructively, aiming for "clear and honest work" without making "sharp statements."
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt's Statement: Leavitt confirmed that the 28-point plan was quietly developed over the past month by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. She stated that the plan was designed to understand what both Russia and Ukraine would commit to for a "lasting and durable peace" and that the President supports it as a "good plan for both Russia and Ukraine." Leavitt also described the plan as crafted to "reflect the realities of the situation after five years of devastating war to find the best win-win scenario, where both parties gain more than they must give."
• Russian President Vladimir Putin's Stance: On a visit to the front line, Putin reiterated his view of Ukraine's government as illegitimate, calling it a "criminal group" holding power for "personal enrichment" and maintaining that the primary goal is to achieve the objectives of the "special military operation."
• European Reactions: European countries, which have collectively provided as many weapons to Ukraine as the U.S., have expressed reservations.
  • E.U. Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas: Kallas argued that "The pressure must be on the aggressor, not on the victim. Rewarding aggression will only invite more of it." She outlined the E.U.'s clear two-point plan: "first, weaken Russia, second, support Ukraine."
  • French Europe and Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noel Barrot: Barrot stated, "Peace cannot mean capitulation. We do not want Ukraine to surrender." He believes that Ukrainians, who have "heroically resisted Russia's uninhibited aggression for more than three years, will never accept any form of capitulation."

Analysis and Concerns Regarding the Plan

A senior European official, who wishes to aid Ukraine in resisting Russia, believes that Europe could help edit the plan to be more pro-Ukrainian. Analysts have raised concerns about several "poison pills" within the proposal:

1. Military Imbalance: The plan limits the size of the Ukrainian military without imposing similar limits on the Russian military. The language regarding nonaggression is described as "unenforceable," potentially leaving Ukraine not self-reliant in the future.
2. Lack of Accountability for War Crimes: Despite the mention of $100 billion for reconstruction from frozen assets, the plan appears to offer no punishment for Russia for widespread war crimes.
3. NATO Constitution Changes: The plan involves changes to NATO's constitution, which is considered a difficult undertaking.

Analysts who want the plan to succeed emphasize the need for a "concrete framework for Ukrainian security guarantees" for it to be viable.

Conclusion

The Trump administration's 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine proposes significant compromises from Ukraine, including territorial concessions and military limitations, in exchange for security guarantees and phased sanctions relief for Russia. While the U.S. administration views it as a balanced approach, European allies and analysts express strong concerns about its fairness, the lack of accountability for Russian aggression, and the potential for it to be perceived as rewarding the aggressor. The plan's viability hinges on addressing these critical issues and establishing robust security guarantees for Ukraine.