White House says the peace plan is 'good' for Ukraine and Russia | DW News

Key Concepts

• US-Russia Peace Plan: A proposed agreement negotiated between the United States and Russia, reportedly without direct Ukrainian input, aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
• Territorial Concessions: The plan reportedly requires Ukraine to cede territory, specifically the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, to Russia.
• NATO Membership Ban: Ukraine would be prohibited from joining NATO under the proposed plan.
• Military Size Reduction: Ukraine's army would be reduced by approximately one-third, to 600,000 personnel.
• European Union Distrust: The EU expresses skepticism towards the plan, citing Russia's past unfulfilled commitments and a belief that pressure should be on the aggressor, not the victim.
• Dual-Track Negotiation Strategy: The US is reportedly pursuing a strategy of negotiating with both Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.
• "Set of Ideas" Framework: US officials describe the plan as a flexible set of ideas, with elements subject to change.
• Russian Battlefield Gains: Russia's recent military advances are seen as potentially encouraging Moscow to make further demands.
• Ukrainian National Interests: The proposed plan is described as antithetical to Ukraine's core national interests.
• European Leverage: Europe's primary leverage over Russia is military, as the major military backer of Ukraine, while US leverage has diminished.
• Shadow Fleet: A fleet of unflaged, uninsured vessels used by Russia to circumvent sanctions and continue economic trade.
• Targeted Sanctions: The EU is focusing on targeted measures against specific aspects of Russia's economy rather than broad sanctions rounds.

Summary of US-Russia Peace Plan Proposal

Overview of the Proposed Peace Plan

A new peace plan, reportedly approved by US President Donald Trump and negotiated between Washington and Moscow, proposes significant concessions from Ukraine. The plan, described as a "draft" and a "set of ideas" with changeable elements, puts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky under pressure to make concessions amidst ongoing attacks. The US Army Secretary, Dan Driscoll, met with President Zelensky in Kiev to brief him on the 28-point plan, which was reportedly negotiated behind closed doors without Ukrainian or European involvement.

Key Provisions of the Proposed Plan

According to the news agency AFP, the proposed plan includes the following key points:

• Territorial Cessions: Ukraine would be required to give up the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, areas largely controlled by Russia.
• NATO Membership Ban: Ukraine would be prohibited from joining NATO.
• NATO Military Presence: NATO fighter jets would be based in Poland to protect Ukraine.
• Military Size Reduction: Ukraine's army would be reduced by approximately one-third, to 600,000 personnel.

The White House has not commented on the specific details but stated that President Trump supports the plan, believing it to be "good for both Russia and Ukraine" and "acceptable to both sides."

European Union's Stance and Doubts

The European Union has expressed doubts about the proposal, reiterating its distrust in the Kremlin. The EU's position, as articulated by officials like Kaja Kallas, is that Russia has repeatedly paid "lip service" to peace talks, and previous negotiations failed due to Russia's lack of real commitments. The EU emphasizes that "pressure must be on the aggressor, not on the victim," and that "rewarding aggression will only invite more of it." European ministers, while not reacting overtly to the announcement of the plan, maintain their stance that no Ukrainian territory should be ceded and that Ukraine must be involved in any peace plan.

US Negotiating Strategy and Rationale

The Trump administration appears to have shifted its negotiating strategy to a "dual-track" approach, engaging with both Russia and Ukraine simultaneously. This is evidenced by Special Envoy Kurt Volker's discussions with his Russian counterpart, Dmitri Peskov, and Secretary Driscoll's briefing of President Zelensky.

The timing of this proposal may be linked to previous US actions, such as President Trump's threat to send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if Russia did not return to negotiations. It is also suggested that the US may have been working quietly on this deal for the past month, presenting Russia with a "take it or leave it" proposition after previous attempts to negotiate terms for a US-Russia summit in Budapest were unsuccessful. Sheer impatience on the part of the Trump administration, which expected a quicker resolution, is also cited as a contributing factor.

Analysis of Russian Concessions and Motivations

Experts suggest that the plan, as understood, largely favors Russia, with the US gaining "peace" as the primary objective. There is a perception that the US has not applied significant pressure on Russia beyond existing sanctions. Russia, however, could still reject the plan and demand further concessions, such as harsher restrictions on the Ukrainian military or political changes in Kiev, which have been previous conditions.

The underlying Russian motivation, according to analysis, is a desire to destroy Ukraine as a country and its identity. Therefore, any deal they agree to would need to provide conditions for achieving this goal. Failing that, Russia is willing to continue the war or, if faced with sufficient Western pressure and stronger Ukrainian battlefield resistance, negotiate in earnest.

Ukrainian President Zelensky's Position and Vulnerabilities

President Zelensky is reportedly advised to politely reject the logic of the peace proposal, as it is "antithetical to Ukraine's core national interests," while striving not to alienate Washington or anger President Trump. His ability to navigate this situation depends on the manner of his rejection, drawing on lessons learned from past interactions with President Trump.

Domestically, President Zelensky faces pressure from a corruption scandal within his administration and potentially negative military news. However, he is not perceived as being in a completely weak position, with approximately 80% of Ukraine's territory under Ukrainian control and augmented military support from some European countries. Nevertheless, he is perceived as being in a weak position by both Washington and Moscow.

European Leverage and Sanctions Strategy

Europe's primary leverage over Russia is military, as the major backer of Ukraine. While the US provides intelligence and sells weapons, its direct military involvement has diminished, increasing Europe's leverage.

Regarding sanctions, the EU is exploring targeted measures against specific aspects of Russia's economy rather than relying solely on broad sanctions rounds, which are seen as less effective. Efforts to curb trade through Russia's "shadow fleet" have reportedly led to a 30% drop in trade. The EU is also aiming to end energy purchases from Russia entirely.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The proposed US-Russia peace plan presents a challenging scenario for Ukraine, requiring significant territorial and military concessions. While the US administration views it as a viable path to peace, the European Union remains skeptical due to past experiences with Russia. The plan's flexibility as a "set of ideas" offers some room for maneuver, but the fundamental divergence in objectives between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with domestic pressures on President Zelensky, suggests that a lasting peace deal remains a distant prospect. Europe's military backing of Ukraine is identified as its most significant leverage in the ongoing conflict.