What’s Next for AI and Innovation? How Microsoft Research Plans the Future

Key Concepts

• Inevitable Futures: A framework for future-oriented research that focuses on identifying aspects of the future that are certain to happen and then working backward to determine current research priorities.
• Microsoft Research's Role: The fundamental research arm of Microsoft, operating as an open lab with a global network of 14 laboratories and a strong emphasis on academic collaboration.
• Research Quadrants: A model for categorizing research efforts based on their time horizon (short-term vs. long-term) and problem definition (well-defined vs. open-ended). The quadrants are:
  • Blue Sky Research: Open-ended, long-term, pushing the limits of human knowledge.
  • Responsive Research: Short-term, well-defined problems brought by internal or external stakeholders.
  • Invention/Disruption Research: Long-term, open-ended, focused on creating surprising new experiences and technologies.
  • Sustaining Research: Short-term, well-defined, focused on continuous improvement of existing technologies.

Microsoft Research: Scope and Philosophy

Dr. Peter Lee, head of Microsoft Research, discusses the organization's approach to research and its role within Microsoft. Microsoft Research functions as the fundamental research arm, comprising 14 laboratories globally with approximately 1,200 researchers. Despite its size, it operates as an open lab, publishing extensively in academic journals and conferences, with 80% of its research conducted in collaboration with academic institutions worldwide. This collaborative model significantly amplifies its research capacity.

Navigating the Future: The "Inevitable Futures" Framework

Dr. Lee emphasizes that Microsoft Research does not aim for exact future predictions. Instead, their approach is to identify "inevitable futures." This involves recognizing trends and developments that are certain to occur and then deducing the implications for current research efforts.

Example in Healthcare:

• Inevitable Future: Over the next decade, advancements in cancer treatment will likely reduce it to a manageable chronic condition.
• Consequence of Demographics: Simultaneously, aging populations in North America, Europe, and Asia will lead to a significant rise in age-related neurological diseases.
• Research Shift: While current medical research funding heavily favors cancer, by 2035, there might be a reversal, with a greater focus on neurological diseases. This foresight guides Microsoft Research's current work in medical science.

This methodology grounds future-oriented research in real-world observations and certainties.

Strategic Domain Investment: The Research Quadrant Model

Addressing how Microsoft Research decides on its focus areas, Dr. Lee contrasts it with other tech companies that are often exclusively focused on Artificial Intelligence. Microsoft Research covers a broader spectrum, including cybersecurity, cognitive psychology, economics, pricing models, supply chain and logistics, and manufacturing.

To manage this diverse portfolio, Dr. Lee uses a two-dimensional quadrant diagram:

• X-axis: Time horizon (short-term to long-term).
• Y-axis: Problem definition (well-defined near the origin to open-ended and exploratory further away).

This creates four quadrants:

1. Upper Right (Blue Sky Research): Characterized by open-ended, long-term research aimed at pushing the boundaries of human knowledge.
2. Lower Left (Responsive Research): Focuses on solving immediate, well-defined problems brought by internal teams or external customers and partners. An example given is optimizing cabling for a new data center design within a month.
3. Upper Left (Invention/Disruption Research): Combines a long-term perspective with open-ended exploration to create novel experiences and technologies that may be surprising to the current landscape.
4. Lower Right (Sustaining Research): Involves continuous, deep research to improve existing technologies that are deployed daily. An example is the ongoing research to enhance the quality of language translation services, such as English to Japanese, even after initial deployment.

Dr. Lee's goal is to ensure Microsoft Research delivers impact across all four quadrants, balancing present needs with future innovation.

Conclusion

Microsoft Research operates with a pragmatic yet forward-thinking philosophy, focusing on "inevitable futures" to guide its research agenda. By employing a structured approach to domain investment, categorized by time horizon and problem definition, the organization aims to achieve impact across fundamental exploration, immediate problem-solving, disruptive innovation, and continuous improvement of existing technologies. This strategy allows Microsoft Research to contribute broadly to both Microsoft and the wider world.