What's more dangerous for the Israeli PM - angering Trump or his coalition partners? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Trump's 20-point plan
• Indirect peace talks (Charm el-Shake, Egypt)
• Hostage release
• Palestinian prisoner release
• Tactical withdrawal (Israel)
• Demilitarization of Gaza
• Disarmament of Hamas
• Logistical mediation talks
• Bargaining collateral
• Far-right coalition government (Israel)
• Third-party monitoring

Overview of Peace Talks and Current Situation

Negotiators from Israel and Hamas have commenced a new round of indirect peace talks in the Egyptian resort of Charm el-Shake. The central focus is US President Trump's 20-point plan, which he hopes to have in place by the end of the current week. Hamas has indicated acceptance of some points within this plan, notably the release of all hostages.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, Israel's offensive in Gaza City continues without cessation. The Hamas-controlled health authority reports that dozens of Palestinians have been killed in recent Israeli strikes, with at least 19 fatalities recorded on Sunday alone. The Israeli military claims to have eliminated several armed Hamas cells threatening its troops. This continued offensive directly defies explicit requests from US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to halt bombing the territory.

Displaced Palestinians, many of whom have been displaced twice from north to south, view the negotiations on the Trump plan with "cautious optimism." They express a shared global desire for an end to the war, a cessation of fighting, and the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state, seeing a "dim light at the end of the tunnel" but also fearing that a ceasefire may not materialize.

Trump's Optimism and the Plan's Structure

US President Trump maintains a positive outlook on the negotiations, stating, "We had some very good meetings. The countries of the world, a lot of the countries surrounding Israel, frankly, uh, Muslim, Arab, and many others have had great meetings with Hamas, and it looks like it's working. I think it's going to go very quickly."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attributes responsibility for finalizing a deal to Hamas, stating that until terms are finalized, there will be no ceasefire. He outlined the Trump plan as consisting of two main parts:

1. Part One: Releasing all hostages, followed by a tactical withdrawal of Israeli forces, who would remain in Gaza.
2. Part Two: Demilitarizing Gaza and disarming Hamas, which would be negotiated subsequently. Netanyahu expressed uncertainty about Hamas's agreement to this second part.

These negotiations offer renewed hope for an end to the war, coinciding with the eve of the second anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel.

Expert Analysis: Sanam Bakquil, Director of Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House

Sanam Bakquil views President Trump's "couple of days optimism" as crucial for generating "momentum" in the negotiations. She suggests this momentum, coupled with significant regional pressure, could expedite the process and "shorten the haggling over the details" that still need to be resolved.

Bakquil elaborates on the 20-point plan as a "framework" that can be broken down into "three baskets":

1. First Basket: Focuses on the hostage release, Palestinian prisoner release, and Israel's tactical withdrawal. This is the primary area for negotiation in Cairo in the immediate future.
2. Second Basket: Addresses the governance of Gaza, Hamas's disarmament, and the future management of the territory. These details are vital for securing Hamas's agreement and Israel's buy-in.

Regarding Israel's continued offensive despite US calls to stop, Bakquil explains that Israel is maintaining strikes to "keep pressure on Hamas" and to "reassure the hardliners in his coalition that concessions will indeed buy these concrete returns." Netanyahu is also "framing the pressure as bargaining collateral" to ensure maximal terms, particularly concerning hostages and withdrawal parameters. Domestically, Netanyahu faces protests and low public trust, making "projecting strength a political hedge."

The implementation of the first phase, involving a tactical withdrawal of IDF troops for a hostage-prisoner swap, is "much harder than it sounds." It requires:

• "Airtight lists" for who will be released.
• Locating all hostages not fully under Hamas's control.
• Establishing "medical triages."
• Setting up "synchronized movement corridors."
• Implementing "third-party monitoring."
• Monitoring Israel's "tactical pullback" to prevent breaches. These "logistical mediation talks in Cairo" are specifically designed to resolve these "friction points."

Expert Analysis: Amira Zshine, Senior Analyst on Israel at the International Crisis Group

Amira Zshine agrees that the Trump plan represents "the closest we've come to a ceasefire, a permanent ceasefire and end to the war," but she hesitates to label it a "peace plan." She describes Trump's proposal as "very obscure guiding principles with the input of Arab and Muslim countries with Netanyahu's signature on it."

Zshine does not share Trump's high optimism for a rapid resolution, citing past instances of imminent ceasefires that failed, including a broken ceasefire in January 2025. She emphasizes that the key challenge is not just achieving a ceasefire but "keep[ing] the ceasefire in place." She questions "how far is he [Trump] going to go to sustain the political pressure that he's currently putting on both sides." Despite her skepticism about the speed, Zshine acknowledges that Trump "seems to be on a mission to get this done quickly," driven by various interests such as a Nobel Peace Prize or normalization deals.

The families of Israeli hostages have shifted their appeals from their own government to President Trump (and previously President Biden), indicating a significant lack of trust in Netanyahu's leadership and his prioritization of hostage release.

Regarding Hamas's conditional acceptance, Zshine notes Hamas's consistent demands throughout the war: release of all hostages in exchange for a prisoner release, an end to the war, and a full Israeli withdrawal. Hamas is in a difficult position to refuse the deal, given its decimation, the destruction of Gaza, and the displacement of 90% of its population. However, Hamas requires "actual guarantee of end of war" if it releases all hostages. Notably, Hamas has also "agreed to remove itself from power in Gaza as a sovereign," a significant concession for an armed resistance movement. The primary "sticking point" remains whether Israel and the US will genuinely provide a "full permanent ceasefire and end of war." Zshine also highlights that the current Trump plan for a "day after" in Gaza "looks like it has no Palestinian mark on it and would be not good for the Palestinians," underscoring the need for Arab and Muslim states to pressure for a process where Palestinians in Gaza can have a say in their future.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The ongoing indirect peace talks in Egypt, driven by President Trump's 20-point plan, represent a critical juncture in the Israel-Hamas conflict. While Trump expresses strong optimism for a swift resolution, expert analyses reveal the immense logistical complexities and deep-seated political challenges. The plan's success hinges on navigating intricate details of hostage and prisoner exchanges, ensuring a verifiable tactical withdrawal, and addressing the future governance and demilitarization of Gaza.

The continued Israeli offensive, despite US calls for restraint, underscores the delicate balance Netanyahu must strike between international pressure and domestic political survival. Hamas, severely weakened but still demanding firm guarantees, has made significant concessions, including agreeing to relinquish sovereign power in Gaza. However, the ultimate success of the plan, particularly in establishing a lasting ceasefire and a post-war framework that genuinely includes Palestinian input, remains uncertain. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the profound lack of trust between the parties, and even between Israeli citizens and their leadership, highlight the urgent need for sustained political pressure and robust third-party monitoring to transform cautious optimism into a tangible end to the conflict.