What role do Venezuela and President Maduro play in the international drug trade? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• War on drug cartels
• Narco-terrorism
• Regime change in Venezuela
• Cartel de los Soles
• War Powers Act
• International norms
• Transshipment point
• Hyperbolic rhetoric
• Domestic agenda
• Settling old scores
• Legitimate president
• Stolen elections

1. US Declares War on Drug Cartels and Strikes in the Caribbean

• President Trump declared the US is at war with drug cartels, designating them as terrorist organizations and claiming their actions constitute an attack against the United States. This was communicated in a notice sent to Congress.
• The US carried out four strikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela in recent weeks, alleging they were smuggling drugs. Three deadly military strikes occurred last month in international waters near Venezuela.
• The US has increased its naval forces in the area and dispatched 10 F-35 aircraft to Puerto Rico, marking the biggest military deployment in the Caribbean in decades.
• These actions have raised legal questions about the US military's authority to kill alleged cartel members under domestic and international law.

2. Legal Rationale and Justification

• The Trump administration aims to provide a legal rationale for its actions by declaring an armed conflict with the cartels.
• Christopher Sabatini argues this is an attempt to legitimize attacking civilians without due process, treating them as combatants in a war zone.
• Questions have been raised by both Republicans and Democrats regarding potential violations of the War Powers Act and international norms.
• Sabatini notes the connection between drugs and armed combatants is tenuous, and many US senators are skeptical.

3. Venezuela's Role in Drug Trafficking

• Venezuela is a transshipment point for cocaine leaving Colombia, but only about 5% of the cocaine consumed in the United States comes through Venezuelan airspace or maritime space.
• Most cocaine entering the US comes from the Pacific or through Central America and Mexico.
• Venezuela is not a producer of cocaine or fentanyl. Fentanyl entering the US often comes from Mexico, with precursors from China.

4. Regime Change Agenda and the Case of Nicolas Maduro

• The Trump administration's actions are seen as an attempt to engage in regime change and remove Nicolas Maduro from power.
• Maduro and his associates have been named as members of the Cartel de los Soles, which the US claims is a narco-terrorist organization.
• The bounty on Maduro's head has been doubled to $50 million, exceeding the bounty placed on Osama bin Laden.
• The existence of Cartel de los Soles as a hierarchical, organized cartel is questioned by UNODC and independent investigators.
• While Maduro is likely aware of narcotics trafficking through Venezuelan airspace, his direct involvement in an organized operational cartel is unclear.

5. Motivations Behind Trump's Opposition to Maduro

• Trump made the issue of Venezuelan criminals entering the US illegally a campaign issue, falsely claiming a Venezuelan criminal organization had taken over a town in Colorado.
• He also claimed Maduro was intentionally flooding the US with criminals and the criminally insane to subvert the United States.
• Marco Rubio, a Cuban American, has long sought regime change in Venezuela due to the Venezuelan government's close ties with the former Castro regime in Cuba.
• Trump's previous attempt to pursue regime change by recognizing Juan Guaido as the legitimate president failed and embarrassed him.

6. The Situation with Juan Guaido and Maria Corina Machado

• Juan Guaido is now living in exile in Miami after his government dissolved at the end of 2022.
• Trump reportedly resents Guaido for not delivering on his promises.
• Maria Corina Machado emerged as the opposition leader after open primaries, but the Maduro government prevented her from participating in the election.
• Machado threw her weight behind a stand-in, Edmundo Gonzalez, and is now seen as the real challenger to Maduro.
• The 2024 elections were stolen in favor of Maduro.
• While Machado is not officially recognized as the legitimate president, she is the figure Marco Rubio and others are supporting.

7. International Support for Maduro

• China, Russia, Cuba, Iran, and North Korea recognize Maduro's government.
• However, these countries are unlikely to sacrifice their relationship with the United States or put themselves at risk for Maduro.
• Many of these countries view Maduro's government as deeply broke, corrupt, and unreliable.

8. Conclusion

The US declaration of war on drug cartels and its actions in the Caribbean are driven by a combination of factors, including a desire to combat drug trafficking, a regime change agenda in Venezuela, and domestic political considerations. The legal justification for these actions is questionable, and the evidence supporting claims against Nicolas Maduro is disputed. While Maduro has some international support, it is unlikely that any major power will intervene on his behalf. The situation remains complex and volatile, with the future of Venezuela uncertain.