What is Hamas getting out of the Gaza peace deal with Israel? | DW News

Key Concepts

• 20-point peace plan: A comprehensive proposal by President Trump aimed at resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• Disarmament: The act of giving up weapons and military capabilities.
• Leverage: Strategic advantage or power to influence an outcome.
• Modalities: The specific ways or methods in which something is done or carried out.
• Litigating: Debating or disputing a point, often in a political or legal context.

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Overview of the Ceasefire Agreement

Hamas has officially announced an agreement to end the war, stating it was reached after "responsible and serious negotiations" regarding President Trump's proposal in Sharm al-Shik. The agreement stipulates an "end to the war on Gaza, the Israeli occupation's withdrawal from it, and the entry of aid and a prisoner exchange." This initial phase of President Trump's 20-point peace plan aims to bring Israeli hostages home, ensure aid flows into the Gaza Strip, and end war conditions for Gazans for the first time in two years.

Skepticism Regarding Long-Term Implementation

Steven Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, expressed significant skepticism about the full implementation of the 20-point plan, despite acknowledging reason for hope in the immediate phase. He noted that while the first phase addresses immediate concerns like hostage release and aid, the subsequent 18 points face considerable obstacles. Cook highlighted that Hamas is already "litigating" its disarmament and its future political role in the Gaza Strip, which are critical components of the plan.

Hamas's Obligations and Resistance

Under President Trump's 20-point plan, Hamas is explicitly required to disarm and is not supposed to have a political role in the Gaza Strip after the war's end. Cook described the document as a "surrender document for Hamas," indicating that the group has no intention of fully surrendering or adhering to these specific terms. Hamas has indicated it will not disarm, at most suggesting it might "freeze" its armaments, and insists on maintaining some political role in Gaza. These points are expected to be major sticking points in future negotiations.

Hostage Release and Hamas's Leverage

Initially, the release of all Israeli hostages was a major sticking point. While Hamas has agreed to release 20 living hostages, there are still 28 dead Israeli hostages whose bodies the Israelis are desperate to retrieve. Hamas has stated that the bodies would be released "as field conditions permit," which Cook interprets as two things:

1. Difficulty in locating all 28 bodies.
2. A demand for Israel to withdraw beyond the line drawn in President Trump's 20-point plan map.

Cook emphasized that the 28 dead Israeli bodies represent the "only point of leverage that Hamas has at this point." This leverage is being used to secure a written guarantee from President Trump that Israel will not restart the war once all hostages are returned. While President Trump has offered a verbal guarantee, Hamas is demanding a written one, fearing that Israel might "reneg and continue the war" once its hostages are back. This concern explains why Hamas did not agree to a "once and for all exchange of hostages."

Main Obstacles to Full Plan Implementation

Beyond the immediate hostage situation, the primary obstacles to the full implementation of the 20-point plan include:

• Disarmament of Hamas: Hamas's clear indication that it will not disarm, at most freezing its armaments.
• Hamas's Political Role: Hamas's insistence on maintaining a political role in Gaza, directly contradicting the plan's stipulation.
• Trust Deficit: A significant lack of trust between both sides, exacerbated by two years of war. Hamas's demand for a written guarantee from President Trump underscores this deep mistrust.

Negotiating the Modalities and Long-Term Truce

The 20-point plan is currently a series of principles and notional agreements. The "devil is in the details," meaning the specific "modalities" of these points still need to be negotiated. This process is anticipated to be "long and very uncertain," as mechanisms for securing a long-term truce are not yet in place and require extensive negotiation.

Conclusion

The ceasefire agreement represents a crucial first step in President Trump's 20-point peace plan, bringing an immediate end to hostilities and facilitating the return of some Israeli hostages and aid to Gaza. However, the long-term success of the plan is highly uncertain due to deep-seated mistrust and fundamental disagreements. Hamas's resistance to disarmament and its insistence on a political role, coupled with its use of the remaining dead hostages as leverage to secure a written guarantee against renewed Israeli aggression, highlight the significant challenges ahead. The full implementation of the plan will require extensive and difficult negotiations on the specific details and modalities, making a lasting peace a distant and precarious prospect.