What does the PM's trip to China mean for Taiwan? | Insiders On Background

Key Concepts

• Stabilization of Australia-China relations: Aiming to manage disagreements and promote trade.
• China's strategic positioning: Presenting itself as a stable alternative to the perceived instability of the Trump administration.
• Assertive Chinese power: Expanding military presence and influence in the region, despite diplomatic outreach.
• US commitment to the region: Doubts in Australia, Japan, and South Korea about the US's long-term commitment, especially under a potential second Trump term.
• Increased defense spending: US pressure on allies like Australia and Japan to increase their defense spending.
• Diversification of Chinese trade: Shifting focus away from the US market towards ASEAN and the EU.
• Industrial subsidies and export controls: Concerns about China's industrial subsidies distorting global markets and the need for export controls.
• Taiwan's reunification: China's unwavering objective to bring Taiwan under its control, with various methods considered.
• Trump's unpredictability: A potential deterrent to China's actions on Taiwan due to the uncertainty of Trump's response.
• Multipolar world order: A potential shift away from a US-led world order, with the US possibly withdrawing from Asia.
• Pre-commitments on Taiwan: Debate about whether Australia and Japan should make pre-commitments to join a US conflict over Taiwan.

China's Strategic Goals and Approach

China is attempting to stabilize its relationship with Australia after a period of tension. This involves high-level meetings, such as those between Anthony Albanese and Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, and promoting closer trade ties. China is also trying to present itself as a stable and responsible partner in contrast to the perceived unpredictability of Donald Trump. This includes outreach to other US allies like Japan and South Korea, who have also had difficult relationships with China.

However, this diplomatic outreach does not negate China's expanding and assertive power in the region. Examples include the circumnavigation of Australia by Chinese military vessels, patrols around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands near Japan, and the erection of a Chinese rig in disputed waters with South Korea.

US Alliances and the Trump Factor

Japan and South Korea, like Australia, are struggling to deal with the potential return of Trump. While these countries are generally pro-US alliance, there are growing concerns about Trump's commitment to the region and his willingness to defend Taiwan. Japan, in particular, is bitter about the trade negotiations with Washington, which have resulted in heftier tariffs on its auto manufacturing industry.

There are doubts about whether Trump is committed to the region and whether he is committed to defending Taiwan.

The US is likely to demand that South Korea and Japan contribute more financially for the US military presence in their countries. Australia may also face pressure to increase its defense spending, potentially through increased contributions to AUKUS. The US ambassador to Tokyo has suggested Japan should increase defense spending to 3% of GDP.

China's Economic Strategy

China has been preparing for potential trade conflicts with the US by diversifying its trade relationships. ASEAN is now China's largest bilateral trading partner, followed by the EU. However, China's export-driven economy is causing issues for other countries, including those in the BRICS bloc, who are taking trade measures against China.

China may need to implement price controls on electric vehicles to prevent destructive price wars that harm both domestic and international industries. Industrial subsidies within China are distorting global markets, making it difficult for China to portray its trade practices as "win-win."

Taiwan and Xi Jinping's Perspective

China's objective to reunify with Taiwan remains a core goal of the Communist Party, regardless of who is in power. However, the method and timing of reunification are less predictable. China prefers to avoid war and may consider options like quarantine or blockade to force Taiwan to negotiate.

Xi Jinping's thinking on Taiwan is influenced by several factors. The people of Taiwan do not want to be governed by Beijing, and China's actions in Hong Kong have further alienated them. The turmoil within the Chinese military leadership, with several top officers removed due to corruption, adds another layer of uncertainty.

Trump's unpredictability may act as a deterrent to China. Trump's statement that China would not invade Taiwan because "he knows I'm effing crazy" may be a factor in China's calculations.

Implications for Australia

Australia needs to work to keep the US engaged in Asia and continue to strengthen relationships with allies like Japan, ASEAN countries, and the Philippines. Australia should also maintain its current defense posture, including patrols with Japan and the US in the Philippines and participation in exercises like Talisman Sabre.

Richard McGregor believes that Elbridge Colby does not speak for Trump on Taiwan.

Anthony Albanese's six-day visit to China was a success in that it invested in the relationship. However, it is important to be realistic about what the visit can achieve. It will not eliminate conflict with China, competition in the Pacific Islands, or the expansion of the Chinese Navy. The success of Australia's China strategy will depend on balancing engagement with China with engagement with the US, particularly under a potential second Trump administration.

Conclusion

The situation in the Asia-Pacific region is complex and dynamic, with multiple actors pursuing their own strategic goals. China is seeking to stabilize its relationships while expanding its influence. The US commitment to the region is uncertain, particularly under a potential second Trump administration. Australia needs to navigate these challenges by strengthening its alliances, increasing its defense capabilities, and pursuing a balanced approach to both China and the US.