What are the international expectations ahead of the Trump-Putin talks in Alaska? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• US-Russia Summit in Alaska: High-stakes meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to discuss the war in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Sovereignty: Ukraine's right to make its own decisions regarding its army, alliances, and future.
• Territorial Concessions: The potential for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia as part of a peace deal.
• Security Guarantees: Assurances of protection for Ukraine from external threats, particularly from Russia.
• Ceasefire: An immediate cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.
• De Facto vs. Legal Recognition: The distinction between acknowledging Russia's control over occupied territories in practice versus formally recognizing it under international law.
• War of Attrition: A prolonged conflict where each side attempts to gradually wear down the other through sustained losses.
• Red Lines: Non-negotiable conditions for Ukraine in any peace agreement.

1. Context of the US-Russia Summit

• A high-stakes summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to take place in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine.
• The meeting occurs amidst pro-Ukraine protests in Anchorage, with demonstrators expressing anger over Alaska hosting Putin, who faces an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.
• Critics also voice concerns about Ukraine's exclusion from the negotiations.

2. Local Perspectives in Anchorage

• Some Anchorage residents express optimism about the summit, viewing it as an "unprecedented" opportunity.
• Others voice concerns about Russia's true intentions and criticize the lack of Ukrainian representation in the talks.
• Some Americans feel safer with the meeting occurring on US soil, while others view it as an "affront" to democracy, both American and Ukrainian.

3. Analysis from Nikolai Petro (Political Scientist)

• The sudden decision to hold the summit suggests a prior agreement between Trump and Putin.
• Trump may aim to demonstrate his effectiveness as a peacemaker, but the true impact on the war remains uncertain.
• Petro believes that Russia, under Putin, will not cease its confrontation with the West, even if the war in Ukraine de-escalates.
• He suggests that Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition against Russia without significant and sustained American military assistance.
• Petro estimates that Putin can sustain the war in its current form for about a year without facing major domestic issues.
• Russian public opinion, while generally in favor of negotiations, supports Putin's conditions for ending the war.

4. European Perspective from Anchal Vora (DW Correspondent)

• European leaders, though excluded from the Alaska talks, have attempted to influence Trump's negotiating position.
• They believe they have secured assurances from Trump to prioritize a ceasefire and potentially offer some form of security guarantee to Ukraine.
• Europeans are considering a "coalition of the willing" to send troops to Ukraine to monitor a peace deal, contingent on American air cover.
• While European allies maintain that territorial concessions are Ukraine's decision, they acknowledge the risk of Russia continuing its aggression even after a potential agreement.
• NATO chief suggests de facto recognition of Russian-occupied territories as a way to freeze the conflict.

5. Ukrainian Perspective from Alexi Gonchareno (Ukrainian MP)

• Gonchareno expresses mixed feelings of hope and fear regarding the summit.
• He believes Russia's ultimate goal is to occupy all of Ukraine and then move on to the Baltic states.
• Gonchareno emphasizes the importance of the US as a reliable partner for Ukraine.
• He suggests that Trump can push Putin towards negotiations if he remains strong and avoids being manipulated.
• Gonchareno outlines Ukraine's "red lines" for any peace deal:
  • Non-recognition of Ukrainian territories as Russian.
  • No limitations on Ukrainian sovereignty.
  • Security guarantees from American and European allies.
• He suggests a potential "swap" where Russia returns control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to Ukraine.

6. Perspectives from Lisa Louie (DW Correspondent in Russia) and Nimisha Jaiswal (DW Correspondent in Kyiv)

• Louie suggests that Russia views the summit as a victory, re-establishing Russia on the world stage.
• She notes that Russian media portray Ukraine and Europe as meddling in the peace talks.
• Jaiswal highlights the exhaustion and anxiety among Ukrainians due to the ongoing war.
• She notes the skepticism about Russian intentions and the fear that concessions will only encourage further aggression.
• Both correspondents are hesitant to predict the outcome of the summit.
• Louie believes Putin will use the meeting to showcase his ability to engage with world leaders, but a ceasefire is unlikely in the immediate future.
• Jaiswal fears that Trump may concede too much and pressure Ukraine to comply.

7. Trump's Optimism and Potential Future Meeting

• Trump expresses optimism about the summit and suggests a possible future meeting with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine.
• He believes that both Putin and Zelensky will make peace.

8. Conclusion

The US-Russia summit in Alaska is a complex event with multiple perspectives and potential outcomes. While Trump expresses optimism about achieving peace, significant challenges remain, including Russia's long-term goals, Ukraine's red lines, and the need for credible security guarantees. The summit's impact on the war in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape remains to be seen.