Putin and Trump agree to another summit: Here's what to expect | DW News

Key Concepts

• Trump's Peacemaker Persona: Donald Trump's self-perception as a peacemaker, often citing his role in ending eight wars and brokering a Gaza ceasefire.
• Ukraine War Summit: Upcoming meetings between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, followed by a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Budapest, aimed at discussing an end to the war in Ukraine.
• Russian Stalling Tactics: The perception that Russia, particularly Putin, is using these meetings as a tactic to delay progress and prevent Western aid to Ukraine.
• Tomahawk Missiles: Long-range cruise missiles that Ukraine is requesting from the US, and Russia's opposition to their supply.
• Budapest Memorandum (1994): An agreement where the US, Russia, and UK committed to respecting Ukraine's independence and sovereignty.
• Hungarian Neutrality: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's positioning of Hungary as a neutral mediator, despite his policies aligning with Russia.
• Ukraine's Drone Prowess: Ukraine's advanced capabilities in drone production and strategy.
• Nobel Peace Prize Motivation: The suggestion that Trump's urgency to end the Ukraine war is driven by a desire for a Nobel Peace Prize.
• Pressure as a Diplomatic Tool: The argument that increased pressure on Putin, through sanctions and military aid, is necessary to bring him to the negotiating table.

Trump's Diplomatic Initiatives and the Ukraine War

Donald Trump has positioned himself as a peacemaker, frequently referencing his perceived success in ending eight wars and his role in brokering a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict. He has now set his sights on resolving the war in Ukraine, announcing plans to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington and subsequently with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest within the next two weeks. This initiative follows a phone call with Putin, which Trump described as "very productive."

Summit Details and Expert Skepticism

The planned summit with Putin in Budapest, Hungary, is set to be preceded by talks between top advisors from both the US and Russia. However, experts express low expectations for significant outcomes. Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, views the meeting with skepticism, questioning why Trump is willing to meet Putin again after the perceived failure of their previous summit in Alaska. Boot suggests that Putin is not offering anything new, such as a ceasefire or a meeting with Zelenskyy, and that the summit appears to be a "Russian stalling tactic" that Trump is amenable to.

Russian Motivations and Tactics

From the Russian perspective, the Kremlin's aim in agreeing to another summit is seen as an attempt to prevent the US from providing further assistance to Ukraine. This mirrors a pattern observed in August, where Putin's call to Trump reportedly delayed US sanctions on Russia. Now, Putin is perceived as being nervous about the potential supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and is using the summit to stall and sweet-talk Trump.

Ivana Strradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggests that Trump's initial openness to supplying Tomahawks, followed by a backtrack after his call with Putin, is a "negotiation move." She believes Trump is attempting to bring Putin back to the negotiation table, but argues that this tactic will not alter Putin's behavior or his ultimate goal of subjugating Ukraine. Strradner characterizes Putin's threats regarding escalation as a "pure bluff."

The Ukrainian Perspective and Concerns

The meeting is not considered good news for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Max Boot notes that Trump tends to echo the last person he speaks with. After speaking with Zelenskyy, Trump sounded pro-Ukraine, but after speaking with Putin, he appeared sympathetic to the Russian viewpoint. This dynamic led European leaders to intervene after the Alaska summit to "deprogram Trump" from falling for Russian propaganda. A similar intervention might be necessary this time.

Trump's Urgency and Motivations

Trump's urgency to end the war is attributed to his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize. He is proud of his perceived successes in ending wars and wants to take credit for resolving the Ukraine conflict, contrasting it with the Biden administration.

Conditions for Diplomatic Progress

For diplomatic solutions to be viable, Putin must be serious about ending the war. As long as he believes he can achieve his objectives through force and that Russia can win on the ground, he will not negotiate in good faith. The argument is that increased pressure on Putin is necessary to compel him to negotiate. This pressure can come from Ukraine's deep strikes on Russian economic targets, European financial support for Ukraine (including loans financed by frozen Russian assets), and the expansion of Ukraine's arms industry. Crucially, increased US pressure, such as imposing sanctions and supplying Tomahawk missiles, could be a turning point.

However, there is doubt about whether this understanding exists within the White House and a willingness to ramp up pressure. While many within the administration may understand Putin's tactics, Trump's belief that Putin wants peace, despite a lack of evidence, seems to override other opinions.

The Significance of Tomahawk Missiles and Ukraine's Drone Capabilities

The Debate Over Tomahawk Missiles

The supply of long-range missiles, specifically Tomahawks, to Ukraine is a critical point of discussion. While the US possesses a limited number of land-based Tomahawk launchers, the debate holds significant symbolic importance. Sending these missiles is seen as crucial not only for Ukraine's potential to strike inside Russia but also to put Putin on the defensive and raise the stakes in negotiations.

Ivana Strradner emphasizes the importance of delivering weapons like Tomahawks or ATACMS to put Putin on the defensive and raise negotiation stakes. She believes Putin will only stop if he is stopped and if the stakes are raised.

Ukraine's Drone Expertise

Ukraine has demonstrated mastery in drone strategy and production. There is potential for significant gains from Ukraine's knowledge and drone technology. While the feasibility of exchanging Ukrainian drones for US Tomahawks is uncertain, leveraging Ukraine's expertise in drones is considered important in the long run.

The Budapest Summit Venue and Historical Context

The choice of Budapest as the summit location holds significance, referencing the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where the US, Russia, and UK pledged to respect Ukraine's independence and sovereignty. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's positioning as a "neutral" leader, despite his policies aligning with Russia, also plays a role.

However, Strradner is not optimistic about the Budapest meeting, believing Putin will use it to stall, reposition his military, and continue his objective of subjugating Ukraine and demonstrating the West as a "paper tiger." She warns against trusting the Kremlin.

Key Takeaways from the White House Meeting

Benjamin Alvarez, reporting from Washington, highlights the cordial tone of the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy. Trump described Zelenskyy as a strong leader, and Zelenskyy congratulated Trump on his work towards the Israel-Hamas truce.

Key points from the meeting include:

• Trump acknowledging the possibility that Putin might be stalling for time.
• Uncertainty regarding Zelenskyy's participation in the meeting with Putin in Hungary, with no timeline yet established.
• Trump suggesting the talks would likely be a "double meeting" with Zelenskyy remaining in close contact.

The timing of this meeting is significant, occurring amidst concerns that the recent Trump-Putin phone call might have reversed progress made by Ukraine and the US. While Trump believes Putin wants to end the war, Zelenskyy maintains that Putin is not prepared to do so. However, Zelenskyy remains confident that progress can be achieved with US support.

No Commitment on Tomahawk Missiles

Despite Zelenskyy's emphasis on Ukraine's technological warfare and his proposal for an exchange of Ukrainian drones for Tomahawk missiles, there has been no commitment from the US side to supply these weapons. The question of whether Ukraine would be allowed to strike deep into Russian territory with these missiles is still under discussion, but no concrete decision has been made.