URGENT 🚨 SPACEX IPO IT'S DONE ‼️ SPCX PRICE PREDICTION DAY 1

Key Concepts

• IPO (Initial Public Offering): The process of offering shares of a private corporation to the public in a new stock issuance.
• IOI (Indication of Interest): A non-binding expression of interest from an investor to purchase shares in an IPO.
• Retail Pool: The portion of IPO shares allocated to individual (retail) investors rather than institutional investors.
• Allocation: The process by which underwriters distribute shares to investors who have placed orders.
• Flipping: The practice of selling IPO shares immediately after they begin trading on the secondary market for a quick profit.
• Perpetuals: Financial derivatives used here as a proxy to gauge market sentiment and potential price discovery for the SpaceX stock.
• Lock-up Period/Unlocking: The period during which early shareholders are restricted from selling their shares; "unlocking" refers to the expiration of these restrictions.

---

1. Status of the SpaceX IPO

The window for submitting an Indication of Interest (IOI) for the SpaceX IPO officially closed on Wednesday at 4:00 PM. Investors who missed this deadline can no longer participate in the initial offering.

2. Post-Submission Requirements

Even for those who submitted an IOI, the process is not complete. Investors must adhere to the following steps to secure their shares:

• Reaffirmation: Once the SEC declares the registration statement effective and the final price is set (expected Thursday evening), brokers will send an urgent alert.
• The Window: Investors typically have a short window (often between 8:00 PM and midnight on Thursday) to log into their brokerage accounts (Fidelity, Schwab, Robin Hood, etc.) and manually reconfirm their IOI.
• Consequence of Inaction: Failure to manually confirm the final terms will result in the automatic cancellation of the request, meaning the investor will receive zero shares.

3. Allocation and Trading Expectations

• Oversubscription: Demand for the IPO is estimated at nearly $300 billion against a retail pool of roughly $75–$77 billion. Due to this heavy oversubscription, investors should expect "scaling back," where they receive only a fraction of the shares requested.
• Brokerage Methods:
  • Fidelity/Schwab: Likely to utilize a lottery system or partial fill.
  • Robin Hood/SoFi: Often employ a first-come, first-served or tiered allocation system.
• Notification: Official allocation results are expected to appear in brokerage accounts between 6:00 AM and 7:00 AM on Friday. Successful participants will see their cash balance debited and the "SpaceX" ticker appear in their portfolio.

4. Market Outlook and Volatility

• Valuation: The speaker anticipates the company will settle at a valuation between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion.
• Volatility Factors: Only 4.2% of outstanding shares are being unlocked for the initial offering. The speaker warns that while the stock may see upward pressure initially due to high demand, significant volatility is expected.
• Future Pressure: A major "unlocking" event is expected in August, where 20–30% more shares will be released. This could create substantial downward pressure on the stock price later in the year.

5. Alternative Exposure

For investors who missed the IPO or wish to hedge their position, the speaker suggests:

• Echoar: Holds a significant position in SpaceX.
• Alphabet (Google): Owns approximately 5% of SpaceX, providing indirect exposure to the company’s growth in AI, data centers, and Starlink.

6. Notable Quotes

• "If you do not hit confirm, folks, during this late night window, your request is automatically cancelled and you won't get a single share."
• "They're only selling 4.2% of the outstanding shares... as they become unlocked, I am expecting a ton of volatility."
• "If we have any weakness at all on Friday, expect August to be an absolute horrible situation because you're going to have a lot of these new investors... wanting to lock up some of their gains."

Synthesis/Conclusion

The SpaceX IPO represents a high-demand, high-volatility event. While the initial application phase is closed, the critical "reaffirmation" step on Thursday night is mandatory for all participants. Investors should prepare for significant allocation cuts due to massive oversubscription and remain cautious regarding the long-term price impact of the share unlocking scheduled for August. The speaker emphasizes that while the potential for growth is massive, the immediate post-IPO period will likely be characterized by intense market fluctuations.