The UNTHINKABLE 🚨 is ALMOST Here for the SpaceX Stock Price ‼️

Key Concepts

• Share Lockup Expiration: A period following an IPO during which early investors and insiders are restricted from selling their shares. Once expired, the sudden increase in available supply often exerts downward pressure on the stock price.
• NASDAQ 100 Inclusion: The process of a company being added to a major stock index, which triggers mandatory buying from index-tracking ETFs.
• Supply and Demand Dynamics: The fundamental economic principle that increasing the supply of shares (via lockup expirations) without a proportional increase in demand leads to price depreciation.
• Inverse ETFs/Put Options: Financial instruments used to profit from or hedge against a decline in a stock's price.
• DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging): An investment strategy of investing a fixed dollar amount at regular intervals, regardless of share price, to mitigate the impact of volatility.

---

1. NASDAQ 100 Inclusion and Market Impact

The speaker highlights that SpaceX is scheduled for inclusion in the NASDAQ 100. While the official inclusion date is Tuesday, July 7th, the critical window for investors is the preceding Monday.

• Technical Detail: ETFs tracking the NASDAQ 100 are required to purchase shares at the market close on the day before official inclusion. This creates a concentrated buying event at 3:59:59 PM.
• Short-term Prediction: The speaker anticipates a 5% to 10% price increase leading up to the Monday close, similar to the pattern observed with Rocket Lab. However, he warns that this is likely a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, expecting significant downward pressure immediately following the inclusion.

2. The "Unthinkable": Share Lockup Expirations

The core argument of the video is that SpaceX investors face a series of "unthinkable" events regarding share lockup expirations that will create extreme downward pressure on the stock price.

• The Mechanism: Unlike a single 180-day lockup, SpaceX has a staggered release schedule.
• Key Dates and Percentages:
  • Post-Earnings: 20%–30% of shares may be unlocked depending on performance metrics (specifically if the stock trades 30% above the IPO price for five out of ten days leading into earnings).
  • August 20th: Automatic 7% release.
  • September 9th: Another 7% release.
  • Ongoing: The speaker notes that releases occur roughly every two weeks, effectively creating a recurring "mini-IPO" supply shock.
  • February 2027 – August 2027: Gradual release for significant early investors.
  • June 12, 2027: The 366-day lockup expiration for Elon Musk, potentially involving 6.4 billion shares.

3. Comparative Case Studies

The speaker uses historical data from other companies to support his bearish outlook on the immediate post-IPO/inclusion phase:

• Rocket Lab: Experienced a nearly 25% decline in the four days following its inclusion event.
• SoFi: Used as a long-term example. After its IPO, the stock saw significant volatility, dropping nearly 50% from its highs over a three-month period before entering a long phase of sideways consolidation.
• Statistical Context: The speaker cites that approximately 90% of major IPOs trade below their initial offering price one year after launch.

4. Strategic Recommendations

• Support Levels: The speaker identifies $147 as a critical support level. If the stock falls below this, he suggests "loading the boat" on the downward run using inverse ETFs or put options.
• Long-term Perspective: Despite the short-term bearishness, the speaker maintains a highly bullish long-term view of SpaceX, predicting it will become one of the largest companies in the world. He advises that the best time to enter is after the "pain" of the lockup expirations has passed and the stock has entered a period of sideways consolidation.
• Actionable Advice: He suggests waiting at least one year post-IPO before establishing a long-term position, utilizing Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) during the consolidation phase.

5. Notable Quotes

• "The price is going to be under extreme... pressure until these events are over."
• "When you increase the supply by seven times, you are absolutely going to have pressure on the price. And it's not upward, it's downward. That's basic economics 101."
• "I believe they're going to merge with Tesla in the next year or two... they will be all over the universe."

Synthesis and Conclusion

The video serves as a cautionary warning for investors to look past the hype of SpaceX’s NASDAQ inclusion. The speaker argues that the fundamental economic reality of massive, staggered share lockup expirations will inevitably lead to significant downward price pressure. While he remains fundamentally bullish on the company's long-term potential to revolutionize space and data, he emphasizes that investors should prioritize capital preservation by avoiding the "trap" of the initial post-IPO volatility and waiting for the supply-demand imbalance to stabilize through long-term consolidation.