Ukraine targets the ships Russia uses to beat US sanctions on its oil | Project Force

Key Concepts

• Shadow Fleet: A network of aging oil tankers, often operating without transponders, used by Russia to circumvent sanctions and transport oil.
• Economic Warfare: Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russia’s oil industry to disrupt revenue streams funding the war.
• Long-Range Strikes: Ukraine’s increasing capability to hit targets within Russia and internationally using drones and missiles.
• Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles: A type of precision-guided missile used by Ukraine, carrying a 450 kg warhead.
• SBU (Sluzhba Bezpeky Ukrayiny): Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service.

Ukraine’s Targeting of Russia’s Oil Industry & Shadow Fleet

The conflict in Ukraine has expanded beyond direct territorial battles to include a significant economic dimension, specifically targeting Russia’s oil industry. While Russia continues its ground offensive in Ukraine, Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive focused on disrupting Russia’s financial resources, primarily through attacks on its oil infrastructure and, more recently, its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Escalation of Long-Range Warfare

The intensity of long-range warfare between Russia and Ukraine is increasing. Russia has inflicted substantial damage on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread blackouts and negatively impacting both civilian life and Ukraine’s industrial capacity, particularly its defense industry. In response, Ukraine has recognized the critical link between Russia’s oil and gas revenues and its ability to finance the war.

Systematic Attacks on Russian Oil Infrastructure

Ukraine has systematically targeted key components of Russia’s oil industry, including refineries, storage terminals, and port facilities. Estimates suggest that approximately 38% of Russia’s oil industry has been impacted by this campaign of economic warfare. These attacks utilize both domestically produced drones, which are increasing in range and payload capacity, and Western-supplied weaponry, such as Storm Shadow cruise missiles. A significant example is the December attack on a major refinery in southern Russia, which was hit by multiple Storm Shadow missiles, each carrying a 450 kg warhead.

Targeting the Shadow Fleet: Circumventing Sanctions

A crucial element of Russia’s ability to maintain oil revenue despite international sanctions is its “shadow fleet” – hundreds of aging oil tankers. These vessels frequently operate without transponders, making them difficult to track, and transport Russian oil to countries willing to bypass sanctions, including China and India. This allows Russia to continue generating revenue to fund its war effort.

Recent Strikes on Shadow Fleet Vessels

Until recently, the shadow fleet proved elusive, appearing briefly for loading and unloading before disappearing. However, Ukraine has demonstrably increased its ability to locate and strike these vessels. Recent attacks include:

• Black Sea: Three ships were hit by sea drones while en route to the Nova Rosisk oil terminal, Russia’s busiest port.
• Mediterranean Sea: The tanker Candal was struck over 1,900 km from Ukraine, sustaining severe damage. The SBU claimed responsibility for this attack.
• Off the Coast of Sagal: The Panameanian-flagged tanker Mercen, known for smuggling Russian oil, was damaged by “external explosions.” While no group claimed responsibility, it is widely attributed to Ukraine.

Strategic Implications & Dependence on Oil Revenue

These attacks demonstrate Ukraine’s growing capacity to project power further afield and highlight Russia’s significant dependence on oil revenue to sustain its war effort. By taking the war to the high seas and targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, Ukraine is attempting to choke off a vital source of funding for Russia’s military operations. The ability to strike vessels at such distances signifies a substantial advancement in Ukraine’s military capabilities and a shift in the strategic landscape of the conflict.