Strait of Hormuz: 'Iran has made it very clear that there are new rules', analyst says • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): A 14-point agreement signed on June 17th between the US and Iran intended to serve as a framework for peace, including uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint currently at the center of geopolitical tension, where Iran seeks to assert control over vessel traffic.
• Deconfliction: Mechanisms intended to prevent accidental military escalation between opposing forces.
• Frozen Assets: Billions of dollars in Iranian funds held abroad that Tehran is seeking to recover as part of negotiation incentives.
• Proxy/Regional Conflict: The broader instability involving Israel, Lebanon, and regional US bases (Kuwait/Bahrain) that complicates the US-Iran bilateral ceasefire.

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1. Current Status of US-Iran Relations

Following a weekend of exchanged fire, the US and Iran have entered a fragile ceasefire. While both nations have agreed to halt direct attacks to allow for the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation remains volatile.

• Diplomatic Friction: Washington announced that envoys Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner were heading to Doha for talks. While Tehran initially denied these plans, reports later confirmed that an expert delegation is indeed heading to Qatar.
• Ceasefire Fragility: The June 17th MOU is under strain. Both sides have accused the other of violations, specifically citing an Iranian projectile strike on a cargo ship and subsequent US retaliatory strikes on bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

2. Strategic Objectives and Motivations

• United States: The Trump administration is motivated by a desire to avoid a failed war and prevent gasoline price spikes ahead of midterm elections. The US seeks to restore "old rules of the road" regarding freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran: Tehran aims to assert "new rules" where it maintains oversight of maritime traffic. Economically, Iran is focused on recouping financial losses, accessing frozen assets, and securing the long-term sale of oil in US dollars.
• Regional Linkages: Iran has explicitly tied the stability of the ceasefire to the cessation of Israeli hostilities in Lebanon.

3. The Role of International Intermediaries

• France and Oman: Recent discussions between France and Oman regarding de-mining the Strait of Hormuz have been met with hostility from Tehran. Iran views these efforts as a "provocation," insisting that only Iran has the authority to manage the waterway.
• China: Barbara Slavin (Stimson Center) identifies China as the "relative winner" in this conflict. By positioning itself as a responsible international player that condemns aggression and facilitates mediation (notably supporting Pakistani-led efforts), China has enhanced its global standing while the US and Iran suffer the consequences of a war that experts argue was unnecessary.

4. Expert Analysis: Barbara Slavin

Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, provided the following insights:

• On the MOU: She characterizes the agreement as a "hastily" constructed document designed to provide the Trump administration an exit strategy from an unsuccessful military campaign.
• On "Less Fire" vs. "Peace": Citing UN Secretary-General Guterres, Slavin notes that the current state is not peace, but rather a reduction in intensity ("less fire"). She expects the situation to "bumble along" in an imperfect state, similar to ceasefires seen in Lebanon.
• On Humanitarian Impact: Slavin emphasizes that the primary losers are populations in developing nations, who are facing increased costs for oil and fertilizer, leading to widespread hunger and poverty.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The US-Iran conflict has reached a precarious stalemate. The 14-point MOU, while intended to de-escalate tensions, is currently failing to provide a stable foundation for peace due to mutual distrust and conflicting regional agendas. While both nations are engaging in talks in Doha, the fundamental disagreements—specifically regarding maritime control, sanctions, and regional proxy conflicts—remain unresolved. The situation is characterized by a shift from open warfare to a volatile, low-level confrontation, with China emerging as the primary geopolitical beneficiary of the instability.