Ukraine not only gets military aid from its supporters, but produces its own weapons, too | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Iris-T air defense system
• Long Neptune cruise missile
• US Patriot system
• Ukrainian UAV capabilities
• Strategic defense and deterrence
• Energy ceasefire
• Indigenous missile production

1. Iris-T Air Defense System

• Germany has provided Ukraine with Iris-T air defense systems to protect critical infrastructure from Russian drone and cruise missile attacks.
• The Iris-T is a mobile system consisting of launchers, radars, and a command post.
• It can detect and engage multiple missiles or aircraft simultaneously with a range of up to 40 km.
• The system has demonstrated 100% accuracy in intercepting missiles.
• Example: The video shows an Iris-T launcher in western Ukraine, protecting vital infrastructure like power plants and gas storage facilities.
• Quote: Commander Slayer states, "We must destroy everything and not miss a single target that could hit either a civilian house or a protected object."

2. Long Neptune Cruise Missile

• Ukraine has successfully deployed the Long Neptune, a long-range guided cruise missile, expanding its ability to strike deep into Russia.
• The Long Neptune is the third iteration of the Neptune missile family, with a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers.
• The first iteration was an anti-ship missile used in 2022 to destroy the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Muskva.
• Analysts suggest it may have been used to strike a Russian oil refinery recently.
• Quote: Mykola Bielieskov states it's a "huge achievement for Ukraine."

3. Strategic Implications and Russian Response

• The deployment of the Long Neptune and other long-range strike capabilities, including UAVs with a range above 800 km, has contributed to Russia's readiness to consider an "energy ceasefire."
• The development of indigenous strike capabilities is seen as a factor influencing Russia's willingness to negotiate.
• Mykola Bielieskov believes the combat debut of the Long Neptune and the energy ceasefire are a "pure coincidence."

4. US Support and Potential Alternatives

• Ukraine relies on the US Patriot system for defense against ballistic missiles, but US support is uncertain.
• The Long Neptune, if provided in major quantity (hundreds of missiles), could contribute to Ukraine's strategic defensive and deterrence capabilities.
• However, it should not be seen as a "silver bullet," and overblown expectations should be avoided.
• Indigenous missile production, supported by European partners, is a potential substitute if US support decreases.

5. Ukrainian UAV Capabilities

• Ukraine also utilizes UAVs like the Pepcollo missile drone, which has a range of approximately 500 km.
• The Pepcollo drone targets Russian groupings of forces, focusing on generation, maintenance, and regrouping efforts.
• Each missile or UAV capability has its own niche and strategic purpose.

6. Trump's Approach to Ceasefire

• President Trump's logic is to "first agree with something and then we broaden the scope."
• Ukraine is following this logic, provided that its concerns are taken into account.
• Ukraine is not ready to accept any unilateral suspension of Western aid during a comprehensive ceasefire.

7. Conclusion

• Ukraine is developing its own long-range strike capabilities, including the Long Neptune cruise missile and various UAVs, which are influencing the conflict's dynamics and Russia's willingness to negotiate. While US support remains crucial, Ukraine is exploring alternative solutions through indigenous production and European partnerships to bolster its defense capabilities. The combination of air defense systems like Iris-T and offensive capabilities provides a multi-layered approach to protecting critical infrastructure and deterring further aggression.