Ukraine allies push back on US 'peace plan' largely favoring Russia | DW News

Key Concepts

• US-Russia Negotiated Proposal: A 28-point plan presented by the US, largely favoring Russia, aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
• Deadline: US President Donald Trump has set a deadline of next Thursday for Ukraine to accept the proposal.
• Withdrawal of US Support: The White House has reportedly threatened to cease American support for Ukraine if the deadline is not met.
• G20 Leaders Summit: The summit in South Africa, initially intended to discuss aid for developing nations, is now overshadowed by the Ukraine peace plan.
• European Concerns: EU leaders were blindsided by the proposal and are holding emergency talks, emphasizing that the war can only end with Ukraine's consent.
• Territorial Surrender: A key European concern is the potential for Ukraine to surrender large parts of its territory as part of the proposal.
• NATO Membership Limitations: Europeans may be able to accept limitations on Ukraine's NATO membership.
• US as Go-Between: A paragraph in the proposal suggesting the US would act as an intermediary between NATO and Russia is a significant concern for Europe, implying a further US withdrawal and leaving Europe "home alone."
• Broken Security Guarantees: Historical precedent, such as Ukraine surrendering nuclear weapons for broken security guarantees from Russia, fuels European distrust.
• Lack of Expert Advice: The proposal is characterized as potentially hastily prepared without sufficient expert input.
• European Leverage: Europe is the primary provider of financial and military aid to Ukraine, giving it significant leverage.
• Geopolitical Actor: Europe is increasingly acting as a geopolitical actor, recognizing Russia's aggression as a direct threat to its security.
• Bipartisan Support for Ukraine: Ukraine enjoys strong bipartisan support in the US Congress, making a complete cutoff of US intelligence support unlikely.
• Kremlin's Circumstance: Russia's cautious reaction to the plan suggests they may view it as a non-starter or are strategizing for a more credible negotiating position.
• Battlefield Stalemate: Russia has faced a battlefield stalemate in eastern Ukraine for a couple of years.

US-Russia Negotiated Proposal and European Reaction

Western leaders have indicated that further work is required on a US-Russia negotiated proposal intended to end the war in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump has announced a deadline of next Thursday for Ukraine to accept a 28-point proposal, which is described as largely favoring Russia. Reports suggest the White House has threatened to withdraw American support for Ukraine if this deadline is not met.

Consultations are scheduled to take place in Switzerland involving the US, Germany, Britain, and France. The news of this US-Russian peace plan has overshadowed the G20 leaders summit, which is currently underway in South Africa. This G20 gathering, the first to be held in Africa, was originally intended to focus on assisting developing nations. However, the US proposal on Ukraine has reportedly blindsided EU leaders present, prompting them to scramble for responses and hold emergency talks on the sidelines of the summit.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated, "I want to make it very clear that the war can only end if Ukraine gives its unqualified agreement. Wars can't be ended by the big powers acting over the heads of the countries involved. The war can only end with the consent of Ukraine and of Europe as it's a war being fought on the continent of Europe."

European Efforts to Influence the Proposal

DW chief political editor Michella Kufner, reporting from Johannesburg, highlighted that Chancellor Scholz had a diplomatic success in getting President Trump on the phone before his departure for the summit. This led to Trump agreeing to negotiate the 28 points, which Trump's advisor Witkoff described as a "plan," while Marco Rubio characterized it as "more of a collection of ideas." This distinction provided Europeans with perceived room for maneuver.

Trump has agreed to send advisors to Geneva for these negotiations. The German Chancellor has dispatched his top foreign policy advisor, and European advisors will also be present, alongside Ukrainian representatives. A key objective for the Europeans, as discussed in an emergency meeting in Johannesburg, is to prevent a deal being forged "over the heads of Ukraine" and without European input. They have communicated their desired changes to Donald Trump.

The Europeans are attempting to steer the proposal in a different direction, and it remains uncertain whether they will succeed in producing a document that can be signed by the upcoming Thursday deadline.

European Concerns and Desired Outcomes

The Europeans aim to have specific passages removed from the current plan. A major point of contention is the potential requirement for Ukraine to surrender "large parts of territory." While limitations on NATO membership might be acceptable, the proposal's suggestion that the United States would act as a "go-between between NATO and Russia" is particularly concerning. This is interpreted as a sign of further US withdrawal, potentially leaving Europe "home alone" if Russia fails to adhere to security guarantees. The historical precedent of Russia breaking security guarantees after Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons contributes to this distrust.

Europeans expect the United States to offer a "completely different level of security guarantees." The document itself has not been leaked, a conscious decision to preserve room for maneuver in the upcoming Geneva talks.

Analysis of Washington's Objectives and Motivations

William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at the think tank RAND, characterized the 28-point US peace plan as Washington accepting Russia's position on "virtually every point," which he found puzzling. He noted that even the Kremlin has been circumspect in its description of the plan, with spokesman Peskov stating there had been "contacts" rather than "consultations," suggesting the Kremlin might view the plan as a "non-starter."

Courtney suggested that President Trump's primary motive is to end the fighting, a "noble goal." However, he pointed out that both Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev and White House negotiator Steve Witkoff lack extensive background in the Ukraine situation, implying the plan may have been prepared "hastily without expert advice." The White House may have been surprised by the joint statement from President Zelensky and three European leaders, indicating a potential erosion of confidence between the US and Ukraine, which is still strong between Ukraine and Europe.

Likelihood of Reduced US Support for Ukraine

Regarding the possibility of reduced US support, Courtney emphasized that Europe is currently the primary provider of financial and military aid to Ukraine. The US provides valuable intelligence for situational awareness and targeting, but otherwise, it sells arms to Europe for onward transfer to Ukraine. Therefore, Europe holds significantly more leverage. While Trump could potentially cut off intelligence cooperation, Courtney believes it is "fairly unlikely" due to strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the US Senate and House of Representatives.

Russia's Perspective and European Leverage

Courtney suggested that given the Kremlin's circumspect reaction, Russia may realize the current plan is unworkable, especially as it was negotiated by an "amateur Russian negotiator." He anticipates Russia is likely strategizing for an alternative, more credible negotiating position, as Ukraine and Europe possess greater leverage. Russia has faced a battlefield stalemate in eastern Ukraine for approximately two years.

Courtney affirmed that Europe is "on the right track" by providing substantial financial and military aid and increasingly recognizing Russia's aggression as a direct threat to European security. He believes Europe is acting as a geopolitical actor and will likely use its leverage to insist on full support for Ukraine.