U.S. peace plan for Russia-Ukraine war is "very pro-Russia," former ambassador to Ukraine says

Key Concepts

• 28-Point Plan: A proposed plan, reportedly drafted by the United States with limited Ukrainian consultation, aimed at ending the war between Ukraine and Russia.
• Pro-Russia Bias: The plan is described as heavily favoring Russia's interests, with concessions that benefit Moscow.
• Ukrainian Defense Capabilities: A central concern is the plan's potential to undermine Ukraine's ability to defend itself, including limitations on army size and equipment.
• Security Guarantees: The plan reportedly discusses security guarantees but excludes NATO membership, which is seen as the ultimate security guarantee for Ukraine.
• Territorial Concessions: The plan allegedly demands Ukraine cede territory currently under its control, which it has defended at significant cost.
• European Support: European leaders are expected to push for changes to the plan, emphasizing the need for negotiation and supporting Ukraine's defense.
• Trump's Leverage: Former Ambassador Taylor suggests that former President Trump possesses significant leverage over Putin, which he could use to negotiate a better deal for Ukraine.
• Sanctions: The effectiveness of sanctions on Russian oil companies is noted as a tool that could be expanded.

Summary

US-Drafted 28-Point Peace Plan for Ukraine-Russia War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reportedly "working" with the United States on a new plan to end the war initiated by Russia. This development follows a White House confirmation that President Biden has approved a 28-point plan. However, there is no indication that Ukraine fully endorses all, or even a significant portion, of these points as currently written.

Analysis of the 28-Point Plan

Former Ambassador to Ukraine, William Taylor, expressed significant concerns regarding the 28-point plan. He stated that the plan, as heard and seen in various versions, is "very lopsided" and "very pro-Russia," suggesting it reflects many of Russia's demands. Taylor speculated that this approach might be a negotiating tactic, akin to former President Trump's "art of the deal," where concessions are made upfront to potentially achieve a middle ground.

Key Concerns Regarding the Plan:

• Undermining Defense Capabilities: A major point of contention is the plan's potential to remove Ukraine's ability to defend itself. This includes proposed limitations on the size of the Ukrainian army and the equipment it can receive from other nations. Taylor emphasized that the ability to defend oneself is a "huge issue" and likely "non-negotiable."
• Territorial Concessions: The document reportedly demands that Ukraine withdraw from territories it currently controls, areas that Russia has been attempting to seize for over two years. This is seen as particularly egregious given the high cost, both in Russian and Ukrainian lives, that Ukraine has paid to defend these lands.
• Exclusion of NATO: While the plan may discuss security guarantees, it reportedly rules out NATO membership, which is considered the ultimate security guarantee for Ukraine.

Diplomatic Process and Ukrainian Response

Ambassador Taylor anticipates that President Zelenskyy will not simply accept the document as presented. Drawing a parallel to a past incident involving a minerals deal, Taylor expects Ukraine to review the plan with its legal and expert teams and then present a counter-proposal. This counter-proposal will be crucial in determining the seriousness and viability of the current 28 points.

European Perspective on the Plan

Taylor believes that European leaders, who have established relationships with former President Trump, will likely contact him to express their concerns. They are expected to make it clear that the document requires significant changes and negotiation. European nations have a vested interest in Ukraine's defense, as they see Ukraine as defending them as well. They have indicated that the current document is not favorable and is close to demanding Ukrainian capitulation, which they do not support.

Trump's Role and Leverage

There is a consensus among many parties, including Europeans and President Zelenskyy, that former President Trump uniquely possesses the ability to end the war. Taylor argues that Trump has leverage over Putin that he could utilize immediately. This includes the ability to push for the passage of sanctions bills and to impose sanctions directly, even without legislative action, which would provide him with political cover.

Taylor suggested that Trump could use his leverage to provide Ukraine with the necessary military capabilities for self-defense and to push Putin towards a more favorable agreement than what is outlined in the current 28-point plan. While Trump has imposed some sanctions on major Russian oil companies, which are having an effect on reducing revenue for the Russian treasury, Taylor believes he could do more.

Conclusion

The 28-point peace plan, reportedly drafted by the US with limited Ukrainian input, is viewed with significant skepticism due to its perceived pro-Russia bias and its potential to weaken Ukraine's defense capabilities and demand territorial concessions. While the US is presenting this plan, Ukraine is expected to respond with a counter-proposal. European nations are likely to advocate for a negotiated solution that supports Ukraine's defense. The role of former President Trump and his potential leverage over Russia are seen as critical factors in achieving a more equitable resolution to the conflict.