Trump urges Israel to show restraint in the wake of the US–Iran deal | DW News

Key Concepts

• US-Iran Tentative Agreement: A nascent peace deal aimed at preventing Iranian nuclear weapon development and securing the Strait of Hormuz.
• "Mowing the Grass": A strategic term describing repeated, limited military operations intended to degrade an adversary's capabilities without achieving a decisive, long-term political resolution.
• Two-Level Game: A political framework where leaders negotiate with international opponents while simultaneously managing domestic political pressures and public opinion.
• Buffer/Security Zone: Israel’s military-controlled territory in southern Lebanon, which it refuses to vacate despite Iranian demands.
• Hebron Agreement: A three-decade-old accord regarding the administration of the West Bank city of Hebron, currently threatened by Israeli far-right ministers.
• Strategic vs. Tactical Success: The distinction between winning individual military engagements (tactical) versus achieving durable, long-term political objectives (strategic).

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1. The US-Iran Peace Framework

The United States and Iran are moving toward a tentative agreement, with formal negotiations scheduled in Switzerland.

• US Objectives: President Trump is focused on two primary goals: preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open for international shipping.
• Iranian Demands: Iran insists that any final agreement must include the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. They have explicitly stated that continued Israeli military presence or attacks in Lebanon will be viewed as a violation of the memorandum of understanding.
• Status of Negotiations: The deal appears to exclude Iran’s regional proxy network and missile programs, which were previously high-priority concerns for Israel.

2. The Israel-Lebanon Conflict

Despite the US-Iran diplomatic track, Israel remains committed to its military campaign in Lebanon.

• Netanyahu’s Stance: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected calls to withdraw from southern Lebanon, citing the necessity of maintaining a "security zone." He maintains that he has stood firm against pressure to retreat.
• US Criticism: President Trump has publicly distanced the US from Israel’s recent actions in Lebanon, describing a specific bombing as "vicious" and "too much," and urging Netanyahu to be more "responsible."
• Effectiveness: Experts argue that while Israel’s campaign is tactically successful in degrading Hezbollah’s immediate capabilities, it lacks a strategic exit plan. Gideon Rose notes that this is a classic "mowing the grass" operation—a cycle of fighting that returns the status quo to its original state without solving the underlying conflict.

3. Domestic Political Dynamics

• Coalition Pressures: Netanyahu is under intense pressure from far-right coalition partners, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. This has led to controversial moves, such as the threat to scrap the Hebron Agreement.
• "Selling the Soul": Analysts suggest that by abandoning the informal Israeli political tradition of excluding extremist parties from government, Netanyahu has become beholden to radical elements, limiting his ability to pursue moderate or diplomatic paths.
• The "Two-Level Game": Leaders are balancing international demands against domestic survival. Trump faces criticism from the American right for being too soft on Iran, while Netanyahu faces pressure from his public to maintain a hardline stance to avoid appearing as a "lackey" of the US.

4. The Role of Syria

The Trump administration has floated the idea that Syria could play a role in managing Hezbollah.

• Expert Consensus: Diplomats and analysts (including Barbara Leaf and Yossi Mekelberg) strongly reject this. They argue that Syria is currently in a fragile state of transition, lacks the financial and military resources to intervene, and that re-involving Damascus in Lebanese affairs would likely exacerbate sectarian tensions and repeat historical failures.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The emerging US-Iran agreement represents a significant diplomatic shift, yet it remains fragile due to the disconnect between the US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing conflict in Lebanon.

• Key Takeaway: The US is acting as the "dominant power" attempting to force a regional realignment, even if it means overriding the objections of its junior ally, Israel.
• Long-term Outlook: Experts remain skeptical that the current approach will lead to lasting stability. Without a comprehensive diplomatic horizon—specifically addressing the Palestinian issue and the long-term status of Lebanon—the region appears trapped in a cycle of recurring violence, where military force is used as a substitute for a sustainable political strategy.