Trump set to give MBS lavish welcome during first US visit since Khashoggi killing • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Abraham Accords: A series of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations.
• Gaza Peace Plan: A proposed plan by Donald Trump for peace in the Gaza Strip.
• Two-State Solution: A proposed framework for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, involving the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
• F-35 Fighter Jets: Advanced stealth fighter aircraft.
• Saudi Investment Pledge: A commitment of significant financial investment from Saudi Arabia into the United States.

Muhammad bin Salman's Visit and the Gaza Peace Plan

This discussion focuses on the high-stakes visit of Muhammad bin Salman to the United States and its implications for the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, particularly in the context of Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan.

Abraham Accords and Saudi Arabia's Potential Involvement

• Objective: Donald Trump aims for Saudi Arabia to become the next signatory to the Abraham Accords, joining Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan.
• Context of Visit: This is Muhammad bin Salman's first visit to the US since 2018, following his designation by the FBI as responsible for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
• Challenges: Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords is currently considered a "long shot."
• Progress: Overnight progress was made with the UN General Assembly's vote to accept Donald Trump's peace plan for the Gaza Strip. This vote is seen as a potential catalyst to move Saudi Arabia closer to signing a peace deal with Israel.

The Gaza Peace Plan and the Two-State Solution

• US Strategy: The US is pushing the narrative that the peace plan addresses Saudi Arabia's desire for a two-state solution and provides proof that such a solution is achievable.
• UN Vote Details: Point 19 of Donald Trump's peace plan, which states that conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, was voted on and accepted by the UN General Assembly.
• Significance of the Vote: This UN vote is presented as a key point for Donald Trump to leverage, arguing for rapid progress and urging Saudi Arabia to sign the Abraham Accords.
• Current Status: The outcome of this push and Muhammad bin Salman's agreement remain uncertain.

Pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu and Shifting Regional Dynamics

• UN General Assembly Vote: The UN General Assembly vote on Trump's peace plan saw only Israel and Hamas opposing it, with China and Russia abstaining. This indicates increasing international pressure on Israel.
• Impact on Netanyahu's Policy: The US is reportedly forcing Benjamin Netanyahu towards a two-state solution and engagement in a political process, which is seen as undermining his foreign policy and potentially playing into the hands of the Saudis.
• F-35 Fighter Jets for Saudi Arabia: Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to supply F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia.
  • Implication: This move could unbalance the regional military dynamic, as Israel has historically been the primary recipient of US military support. A shift in favor of Saudi Arabia would increase pressure on Netanyahu.
• Regional Power Shift: The situation is described as "shifting plates" in the Middle East, with Donald Trump potentially having to choose between Netanyahu and Muhammad bin Salman. Given the visit and financial implications, Trump appears to be favoring Muhammad bin Salman currently.

Economic and Security Deal-Making

• Saudi Investment Pledge: A significant aspect of the visit is the $600 billion Saudi investment pledge for the United States, made in May when Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia.
  • Sectors: This investment covers technology, manufacturing, defense, artificial intelligence, and a civilian nuclear program, which Saudi Arabia is keen to develop.
• Business Delegation: Muhammad bin Salman is accompanied by a large delegation of business leaders and government officials to secure these deals.
• Evolving US-Saudi Relationship: The traditional dynamic of the US providing security in exchange for discounted oil from Saudi Arabia is seen as undermined.
  • Recent Events: The attack by Israel into Qatar to target Hamas leaders has reportedly "rattled the Saudis."
• New Deal Framework: The US is likely to offer F-35 fighter jets and secure favorable deals for Saudi Arabia in exchange for continued access to oil and significant investment.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

The visit of Muhammad bin Salman to the United States is a pivotal moment with far-reaching implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics and US foreign policy. The core of the discussions revolves around:

1. Normalization of Saudi-Israeli Relations: Driven by Donald Trump's efforts to expand the Abraham Accords.
2. Gaza Peace Plan: A US-backed initiative that has gained UN General Assembly support, putting pressure on Israel to engage in a two-state solution.
3. Shifting Regional Power Balance: The potential supply of F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia could alter the military landscape, impacting Israel's strategic advantage.
4. Economic Cooperation: A substantial Saudi investment pledge in the US, signaling a deepening economic partnership beyond traditional security and oil exchanges.

Ultimately, the current dynamics suggest that Donald Trump is prioritizing the economic and strategic interests associated with Saudi Arabia, potentially at the expense of Benjamin Netanyahu's immediate foreign policy objectives, particularly concerning the peace plan and regional military balance. Benjamin Netanyahu is identified as the key figure who may lose out in the short term due to the pressure exerted by Donald Trump and the evolving regional landscape.