They're Lying to You About the Silver Peak

Key Concepts

• Secular Peak: A long-term, multi-decade high in price, often signaling the end of a major bull market.
• Medium-term/Intermediate-term Peak: A temporary, shorter-term high within a larger trend, followed by a correction before the trend resumes.
• Gold-Silver Ratio: The number of ounces of silver required to buy one ounce of gold, used to gauge relative value.
• Fibonacci Target: Price levels derived from the Fibonacci sequence, often used as support or resistance.
• Moving Averages (100-day, 200-day EMA): Technical indicators that smooth out price data to identify trends and potential support/resistance levels.
• Technical Damage: A state of a market or asset after a sharp decline, indicating broken trends and requiring time for repair and consolidation.
• GDX, GDXJ, SIJ: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) representing major gold miners (GDX), junior gold miners (GDXJ), and silver miners (SIJ).
• Allocation to Gold Stocks: The percentage of overall investment portfolios dedicated to gold mining companies, used as a sentiment indicator.
• New 52-Week Highs (20-day EMA): An indicator used to spot rising risk in a sector by tracking the smoothed number of stocks hitting new annual highs.

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Current State of Precious Metals: Not a Secular Peak

The video argues that claims of a "silver peak" or "silver crash" akin to 1980 or 2011 are misleading. Instead, the current situation represents a medium-term or, more likely, an intermediate-term peak within an ongoing precious metals bull market. This is not a long-term concern. The analysis is based on data as of Friday, January 31st, 2026.

Silver Analysis: Correction, Not Collapse

Debunking Secular Peak Claims:

• Silver vs. S&P 500: In 1980 and 2011, the S&P 500 was 28 times larger than silver. Currently, it's barely below 90 times, indicating silver has only moved "a little bit" in real terms, nowhere near a historical peak.
• Gold-Silver Ratio: Secular bottoms in the ratio typically occur around 15x-16x (below 20x). In 2011, it was in the 30s. After a recent rebound, the ratio is in the high 50s, far from secular low levels, suggesting no secular peak.

Current Intermediate-Term Peak and Expected Correction:

• Silver was "very extended" a week prior, with a trajectory "quite extended" compared to historical breakouts.
• The speaker had previously suggested a peak could be around $115-$127, with support levels at $90, $70-$80.
• The recent "smash" saw silver correct significantly. The expectation is for silver to correct "a little bit more in price, more so in time," likely bottoming out and basing for "some months" before another leg higher. This is "not the end of the breakout move" or the cyclical bull market.

Specific Silver Price Action and Support:

• A key support area identified in previous videos was $70 to $82, with a strong Fibonacci target at $79 and another strong support at $80 on the daily chart.
• On the day of the video, spot silver was down 27%, trading down to a low of $77 but closing at nearly $84-$85, indicating buying in that area.
• The speaker would be "really surprised" if silver goes below $70, suggesting this is a floor.
• Due to "technical damage" from the huge move down, silver is unlikely to shoot straight back up. Instead, a rally, then a move lower, followed by "chopping around" for "two or three months, maybe four or five months" is expected before bulls regain control.
• This scenario, if $70 holds as a floor and silver trends higher by late spring or summer, would be "really, really bullish for the silver stocks."
• Silver is still "quite a ways above all these moving averages," with the 100-day in blue and the 200-day at $48, implying time is needed for these gaps to close.

Gold Analysis: Healthy Correction Towards Key Support

Historical Analogues and Current Correction:

• Gold was "uncomfortably close" to the 1973 peak, which followed a 1971-1973 move where gold nearly tripled but then corrected 28% (intraday top to bottom).
• The current move has seen similar minimal corrections of -11% and -12% over the last two years.
• On the day of the video, gold corrected 16% intraday.
• The speaker had previously stated that to reach a $7,000 target in 14 months, a 20% correction in gold would likely be needed, mirroring the 1971-1973 and 2005 moves (the latter corrected 24% over 5 months).
• Big picture, gold remains "super bullish," but a short-to-medium term correction is expected.

Testing the 200-Day Moving Average:

• Historically, after major breakouts, gold tends to correct back and test its 200-day moving average (on a weekly chart). This pattern was observed in late 1973 and late 1978.
• Gold has gone a "long time" without testing the 200-day since its recent breakout, similar to the period from late 1970 to 1973, which culminated in a 28% correction and a test (and even breach) of the 200-day MA.
• The speaker projects that gold will likely test its 200-day moving average for its next low and a "big buy signal."

Specific Gold Price Action and Support:

• A support level of $4,400 to $4,500 was identified for gold, with a gap at $4,600. The weekly chart shows strong support slightly lower at $4,250 to $4,500.
• The 200-day moving average is projected to intersect with this support zone "sometime in the spring," possibly "early May" around $4,400.
• Similar to silver, gold has sustained "a lot of technical damage." While "not that much more downside in terms of price" is expected, it could "chop around for a couple months, couple months more than that," test the 200-day MA, and then rebound, marking the beginning of the next leg higher.

Gold's Breakout Against the S&P 500:

• Gold recently experienced a "huge breakout from a 12-year long base against the S&P 500."
• This breakout signifies an "acceleration of capital out of the S&P 500 and conventional stocks and into gold" over the next 12-18 months.
• In the short to medium term, this breakout could "soften," leading to a "little retest" before a bigger move higher into late 2026 and 2027.

Investment Strategy and Market Sentiment

Trimming Profits and Reallocation:

• A "flash update" was issued to subscribers, advising to "trim profits" as a peak in gold and silver seemed "imminent." This was based on gold moving "uncomfortably close to $6,000 an ounce" and the historical 28% correction from the 1971-1973 move.
• Positions were trimmed in four stocks, but the portfolio remains "heavily invested." The focus for reallocation will be discussed in an upcoming weekend update.
• This was a moment for "buy and holders" to "take a few chips off the table."

Focus on Fundamentally Strong Juniors:

• The "Daily Gold Premium" service focuses on analyzing and covering junior miners with "3x to 5x upside potential over the next two years" as the cyclical bull market continues.
• The emphasis is on owning "high-quality juniors that have the most upside" and are "fundamentally strong," capable of adding value regardless of gold price fluctuations (e.g., $6,000 or $4,000).
• Investors should avoid being "too reliant on metals prices driving gains" in their portfolios, as this is a "risky place to be."

Gold and Silver Stocks (Miners) Analysis

Breakout and Consolidation:

• Similar to gold's breakout against the S&P 500, gold stock ETFs (GDXJ, GDX) have also broken out against the broader stock market.
• More selling and consolidation for "a few months" are expected before these stocks move higher.
• The "setup here is clear": after this correction, "a lot more money" will flow into precious metals, including gold stocks and miners.

Low Allocation and Future Rotation:

• The allocation to gold stocks remains "really, really small." Most people don't own gold stocks or gold, or only a "tiny amount."
• A chart showing money in minor ETFs divided by money in all stock ETFs indicates that the rotation out of conventional stocks and into gold stocks has "only started in the last couple months."
• This ratio is currently below 0.5% (around 0.4%), whereas the peak was nearly 1.5%. This suggests the rotation has a "really, really long way to go," supporting a "super bullish" outlook for gold stocks over the next one to two years.

Risk Indicator and Support Levels for Miners:

• An indicator tracking the 20-day exponential moving average of new 52-week highs in GDX (which hit an "all-time high" of around 56% in October) was "uncomfortably high" a few days prior, signaling that "the time to trim was coming."
• Support levels for major miner ETFs:
  • GDX: Dumped to $94 (intraday below that), next strong support at $84-$85.
  • GDXJ: Traded down to $122 (closed $124), next strong support at $109-$110.
  • SIJ: Below $27 (call it $26), came down to nearly $3,100 (closed just below $3,200).
• Most of the "damage in terms of price has already been done," with these ETFs having corrected close to 20% (SIJ already 20%).
• While a price bottom might not be immediate, "damage to price will be limited moving forward." The correction will involve a "time component" where they "come down, test support, find a low, and then grind it out for a couple months before eventually moving higher again."

Conclusion

The current correction in silver and gold is a healthy, intermediate-term peak, not a secular top. Historical patterns and current market metrics (like the Gold-Silver Ratio and low allocation to gold stocks) strongly suggest that the precious metals bull market is far from over. While there's "technical damage" that requires a few months of consolidation and potential retesting of key moving averages (like the 200-day MA for gold), the downside in price is likely limited. This period is expected to create "great buying opportunities" for fundamentally strong precious metals companies, as capital continues to rotate out of conventional stocks and into the sector over the coming years.