The Everything CRASH🥲‼️

Market Volatility, AMD Crash, and Potential Buying Opportunities – A Detailed Analysis

Key Concepts:

• Risk-On Assets: Investments like tech stocks, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, generally more volatile and sensitive to economic downturns.
• Capex (Capital Expenditure): Funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets such as property, plants, buildings, and equipment.
• Non-GAAP EPS: Earnings Per Share calculated using non-generally accepted accounting principles, often excluding one-time items.
• Market Correction/Crash: A significant decline in stock prices, typically 10% or more.
• Inference (AI): The process of using a trained AI model to make predictions or decisions based on new data.
• Depreciation: The accounting method of allocating the cost of a tangible asset over its useful life.

I. Market Overview & Correction/Crash Potential

The market is experiencing significant volatility, with several high-growth stocks experiencing substantial declines. The public count shows a $160,000 loss, with AMD being a major contributor (-$424.2%). Despite this, the S&P 500 is only down 2%, raising concerns about whether this is a localized pullback or a precursor to a broader market correction or crash.

Historical analysis of past crashes (Tech Bubble & 2008 Financial Crisis) reveals a pattern: risk-on assets often peak before the overall market. For example:

• Tech Bubble (1999-2000): Amazon, eBay, and Microsoft peaked months before the S&P 500.
• 2008 Financial Crisis: Homebuilders (Toll Brothers, KB Home) and banks peaked 2 years before the S&P 500.

This suggests current declines in risk-on assets could be an early warning sign. However, it's also possible this is simply a sector-specific pullback. Polaris stock, peaking in April 2021 and bottoming in Spring 2025, is presented as a potential indicator of a shifting economic cycle, suggesting a possible move away from a late-stage economy towards an improving one.

II. AMD Analysis & Strategy

AMD experienced a significant crash despite positive news (Google & Meta’s massive capex spending, strong earnings report, positive guidance from Lisa Su). The speaker attributes this to market overreaction and highlights the dynamic between AMD and Nvidia.

• Nvidia vs. AMD: Nvidia is positioned as the dominant player, while AMD is the value play. Nvidia’s high pricing is allowing AMD to command higher margins, potentially forcing Nvidia to lower prices and impacting their margins.
• OpenAI & AMD: OpenAI’s investment in AMD and potential acquisition of up to 10% of the company is seen as a positive development. Tension between OpenAI and Nvidia regarding chip performance further benefits AMD.
• Strategy: The speaker is holding their AMD shares despite the crash, citing the long-term potential and positive fundamentals. They detailed their AMD position in a previous video (posted 22 hours prior, viewed by 104,000 people).

III. Google (Alphabet) Earnings & Outlook

Google reported strong earnings (18% revenue growth, 30% EPS growth), but the announcement of a massive $180 billion capex plan for 2026 triggered a stock decline.

• Capex Concerns: The speaker expresses concern that this level of spending will negatively impact future earnings due to increased depreciation expenses and potential debt accumulation. They fear Google could transition from an asset-light to an asset-heavy model.
• Strategy: The speaker is considering selling their Google shares (up $78,000 from a purchase in April 2025) due to the capex concerns and the presence of other companies (Meta, Amazon) also engaging in massive spending. They believe Google’s future growth potential may be limited by these investments.

IV. ELF Beauty (ELF on the Shelf) Earnings & Outlook

ELF Beauty reported strong earnings, beating expectations on both revenue (38% YoY growth) and EPS. They also raised their full-year guidance.

• Key Metrics: Non-GAAP EPS of $1.24 (beat by $0.52), revenue of $380 million (beat by $27 million).
• Strategy: The speaker views ELF as a continued buy, even after potential price increases following the earnings report. They are up over 1000% on their ELF position.

V. Possible Buys Watch List

The speaker shared a comprehensive list of stocks they are monitoring for potential purchases:

• High-Conviction Buys: Fubo ($162), Meta, Amazon, ELF Beauty, American Express, Nike ($64), Adobe.
• Monitoring: Celsius (earnings upcoming), EO stock (earnings upcoming), RH, Service Now, Salesforce (199), Bath & Body Works, Whirlpool, Cheesecake Factory, Cav Stock (potential buy on earnings crash).

VI. General Market Strategy & Key Takeaways

• Don't Miss Opportunities: The speaker emphasizes the importance of not missing out on buying opportunities during market downturns, referencing past instances (2009, 2020, 2022) where significant gains were available.
• Long-Term Focus: Investors should focus on the long-term (3-5 years) potential of companies, rather than short-term market fluctuations.
• Risk Management: Be aware of the risks associated with high-growth stocks and the potential for market corrections.
• Continuous Learning: The speaker encourages viewers to stay informed and continue learning about the market.

Notable Quotes:

• “AMD just got some great news. Do you know what the news was? Google McDougall is going to absolutely spend like a drunken sailor.”
• “Nvidia is AMD’s best friend. AMD is Nvidia’s worst nightmare.”
• “Do not let 2026 buying opportunities pass you right by like people did in April of last year.”
• “The discounts you're getting now, and if we get even bigger discounts, don't let it pass you because this is what happens time and time again.”

Conclusion:

The market is currently facing significant volatility, with risk-on assets experiencing substantial declines. While a broader market correction or crash is possible, it's not certain. The speaker advocates for a cautious yet opportunistic approach, emphasizing the importance of long-term investing, continuous learning, and not missing out on potential buying opportunities. They are actively monitoring several stocks and adjusting their strategy based on market developments and company-specific news.