Stock Market, SpaceX, Crypto Analysis 6/12/26

Key Concepts

• Anchored VWAP (AVWAP): A technical indicator that calculates the Volume Weighted Average Price starting from a specific, significant event (e.g., an IPO, a gap, or a market low).
• Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The average price a stock has traded at throughout the day, adjusted for volume.
• Moving Averages (5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 200-day): Used to determine trend direction and potential support/resistance levels.
• "Guilty until proven innocent": A trading philosophy where a stock in a downtrend (lower highs/lower lows) is assumed to be weak until it demonstrates a clear reversal of trend.
• Gap Trading: The strategy of waiting for a stock to stabilize after an initial price gap rather than chasing the opening move.

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1. Market Overview and Indices

The market experienced a strong recovery for the week ending June 12th.

• Semiconductors (Semis): Led the market with a ~9% rally.
• Biotech & Russell 2000: Both saw gains of approximately 4%.
• S&P 500: Currently testing the 20-day moving average. The speaker suggests an ideal scenario involves a pullback to the year-to-date (YTD) anchor, which aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
• Russell 2000: Noted for high volatility; the speaker avoids trading it directly but highlights that 2,000 stocks hitting new yearly highs indicates broad market participation.

2. IPO Analysis: SpaceX

The speaker applies principles from his book, Maximum Trading Gains with Anchored VWAP, to analyze the recent IPO:

• Volume Profile: The first minute of trading saw massive volume, representing the initial "opening print" where buy/sell orders were matched at a fixed price.
• VWAP Utility: The daily VWAP acted as a critical support level. When the stock broke below the daily VWAP, it served as an "early warning sign" of supply pressure.
• Strategy: The average purchaser at the end of the day was down $1, suggesting that chasing the initial IPO price is risky.

3. Cryptocurrency Trends

• Bitcoin: Finding supply at the anchor of its most recent drop. While the primary trend is lower, it is forming higher lows, suggesting a potential push higher.
• Ethereum: Viewed as weak, as it remains stuck below its February low.
• Solana: Showing relative strength by breaking through recent resistance, though the speaker remains cautious due to the overall bearish primary trend.

4. Sector and Individual Stock Analysis

• Semiconductors: The sector is showing strength but is currently extended. The speaker advises waiting for a pullback and sideways consolidation before buying strength.
• Financials: Highlighted as a breakout sector, showing a bullish "cup and handle" pattern on the weekly chart.
• "The Mags" (Magnificent Seven/Tech Giants):
  • Nvidia: Approaching the 50-day moving average and YTD anchor. The 5-day moving average is flattening, suggesting a potential bounce.
  • Apple: Struggling after a failed breakout to new all-time highs; currently heading toward the YTD anchor and 50-day moving average.
  • Microsoft & Palantir: Both are in downtrends (lower highs/lower lows). The speaker warns against "dip buying" here, as they are "guilty until proven innocent."
  • Meta: Described as "broken" after failing to hold support levels.

5. Trading Methodologies

• Don't Chase the Gap: The speaker emphasizes that when a stock gaps up significantly (e.g., the "Dave" stock example), chasing the move is dangerous. The only logical entry point is waiting for the stock to reclaim the daily VWAP.
• Support/Resistance: The speaker prioritizes Anchored VWAP over standard moving averages, noting that the anchor often provides more reliable support during pullbacks.
• Trend Confirmation: A stock is only considered a buy when it stops making lower highs and lower lows and begins to show strength above key moving averages.

6. Notable Quotes

• "If you bought the 20-day moving average, it had to experience a big pullback... this anchor is showing itself to be more important than the 20-day moving average."
• "They [dip buyers] don't gain control when we're showing lower highs and lower lows below a declining 5-day moving average. So, that remains guilty till proven innocent."

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Synthesis/Conclusion

The market is currently in a recovery phase, but the speaker maintains a disciplined, technical approach. The primary takeaway is to avoid "chasing" stocks that have already moved significantly and to wait for structural confirmation—such as a stock holding its Anchored VWAP or reversing a downtrend—before entering long positions. The speaker emphasizes that in a market with declining moving averages, it is safer to wait for a stock to prove its strength rather than attempting to catch a falling knife.