Stock Market, Bitcoin, Oil, Gold Analysis for Week Ending March 13, 2026

Key Concepts

• Anchored VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): A technical indicator that calculates the average price of an asset weighted by volume, starting from a specific significant event (e.g., all-time high, year-to-date low, or "liberation day" lows).
• Market Structure: The analysis of price trends, specifically identifying "lower highs and lower lows" as a bearish signal.
• Moving Averages (MA): Specifically the 5-day (short-term trend), 20-day, 50-day (intermediate trend), and 200-day (long-term trend) moving averages used to determine market health.
• Distribution: A market phase where institutional investors are selling their positions, often characterized by price weakness despite occasional rallies.
• Bearish Environment: A market condition where the trend is negative, and buying the dip is discouraged.

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Market Analysis and Trends

Brian Shannon provides a bearish outlook on the current market, emphasizing that the environment is "guilty until proven innocent."

• S&P 500 (SPY) & NASDAQ: Both indices are at their lowest closes for the year. They are trading below declining 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Shannon notes that rallies should not be trusted when the 5-day moving average is declining. The focus is on a potential test of the 200-day moving average and the "liberation day" lows.
• Oil: Up 47–50% month-to-date. It remains a source of pressure on the broader equity markets. Buyers remain in control as the price stays above the anchored VWAP from the all-time high.
• Gold: Losing ground, having broken below the year-to-date anchor and the week-to-date anchor.
• Bitcoin: Remains a "mess." It has been repeatedly rejected at the year-to-date high anchor and is hindered by a declining 50-day moving average.
• Semiconductors: Once a market leader, they are showing signs of a "head and shoulders" pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating potential further weakness.

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Methodologies and Frameworks

• The "Don't Trust" Rule: Shannon explicitly warns against trusting rallies when the 5-day moving average is declining.
• Trend Definition: A healthy trend requires higher highs following an established higher low. The current market is exhibiting the opposite (lower highs and lower lows), signaling a bearish environment.
• Exit Strategy: Shannon outlines a disciplined exit strategy for long-term holdings: selling in thirds based on the violation of moving averages (5, 10, and 20-day).
• Institutional Traps: He highlights how markets often break a previous high to "trap" breakout buyers and short sellers before reversing, emphasizing the importance of waiting for confirmation rather than chasing breakouts.

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Notable Quotes

• "Don't trust rallies with a declining 5-day moving average. I say it all the time... If you're buying because you're getting excited, calm down."
• "Look at this market as guilty till proven innocent."
• "If they don't scare you out, they'll wear you out."
• "Only the liars will get out at the highs." (Regarding the difficulty of timing market tops).

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Specific Stock Observations

• Nvidia: Weakening since earnings; rejected at the 50-day moving average and year-to-date anchor.
• Apple: Trending toward a test of the 200-day moving average.
• Microsoft: Failing, trading back below the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages.
• Tesla: Exhibiting lower highs and lower lows; potential to drop toward the 365–370 level (anchored to tariff lows).
• Biotech: Sellers are becoming more aggressive, taking control at lower prices, which increases the likelihood of a breakdown.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The primary takeaway is that the market is in a clear bearish phase characterized by distribution and negative technical structures. Shannon advises against "buying the dip" or using bull-market strategies in this environment. Investors are urged to monitor key technical levels—specifically the 200-day moving average and anchored VWAPs from significant historical lows—and to remain disciplined by adhering to trend-following exit strategies rather than succumbing to emotional trading during temporary rallies. The overarching advice is to avoid complacency and recognize that the current market structure favors sellers.