Situation in Iran calmer, but fears of escalation remain: AJE correspondent

Key Concepts

• Nationwide Protests: Widespread demonstrations across Iran since December.
• Internet Blackout: Government-imposed restriction on internet access, particularly international connections.
• Pro-state Rallies: Demonstrations organized in support of the Iranian government.
• Anti-government Protests: Demonstrations against the Iranian government.
• Muharaba: A legal charge in the Iranian system meaning "status of war with the Islamic establishment," carrying severe penalties including the death penalty.
• Supreme National Security: A high-level governmental body responsible for national security.

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Current State of Protests and Funerals

Since December, Iran has experienced nationwide protests involving "tens of thousands of people." However, as of Monday morning, the situation has shifted, with a noticeable increase in pro-state rallies and demonstrations and a significant decrease, "if not at all," in anti-government protest gatherings across the country. Tuesday night was reported to be calm.

Funerals are being held for those who died during the unrest. Today, a funeral is taking place for "over 100 people," including both security forces and ordinary citizens, who lost their lives due to "escalations and violent confrontation" between security forces and some protesters in the capital and other cities. Similar funerals have been observed over the past two to three days. Overall, the anti-government protest situation has "cooled down" to a certain extent.

Allegations of Executions and Legal Framework

The US State Department has claimed that a 26-year-old man named Sultani, who participated in the protests, has been sentenced and is scheduled for execution today. However, Al Jazeera's Tohid Assadi, reporting from Tehran, stated that there is no confirmed information from official sources regarding any execution taking place today.

The head of the Iranian judiciary has indicated that trials for individuals involved in acts of violence against security forces and people, especially those "carrying guns," will be "very fast." A critical aspect of the Iranian legal system is the charge of Muharaba, which translates to "status of war with the Islamic establishment." If an individual is charged with Muharaba and the court rules accordingly, they could face "severe punishments such as death penalty."

International Relations and Rhetoric

US President Donald Trump has been vocal about the situation in Iran, repeatedly warning against executions. In a recent interview, he stated, "if they hang them, you're going to see some things," implying potential repercussions.

The Iranian government has responded strongly to these statements and accusations.

• Ali Larjani, the Secretary for the Supreme National Security of the country, directly addressed Trump's "threat of intervention." Larjani retorted by saying, "we announced the name of the main killers of Iranian people. Number one Trump and number two Netanyahu."
• The Iranian Foreign Minister has engaged in "several phone conversations with different counterparts across the globe," emphasizing Iran's "readiness for any scenario down the road." In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, the Foreign Minister asserted that Iran's capabilities have been strengthened "both qualitatively and quantitatively" compared to June, when "the Israelis and Americans decided to strike a to start a campaign of strikes against Iran."
• Despite the strong rhetoric, Tehran also states its readiness for "dialogue and conversation and negotiation with the US." The spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that "the lines of communication with the with Washington is open." However, a "cloud of mistrust" persists regarding the possibility of negotiations, stemming from the existing historical background between the two nations.

Internet Blackout and its Impact

An internet blackout has been in effect for approximately "five or six days." The Iranian government is currently "assessing the situation" to consider the possibility of restoring internet services. The shutdown was initiated specifically since "Thursday night when the unrest flared up into violence."

This blackout is significantly impacting "ordinary citizens" by disrupting their daily communications. While it has been possible to make calls to numbers outside the country since yesterday, international calls from outside Iran to inside Iran remain restricted. The internet shutdown continues, although domestic services, websites, and applications are still accessible and unaffected. The Iranian Prime Minister Basari (as stated in the transcript) reportedly said the internet would be restored "soon," but a specific timeline remains uncertain.

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Conclusion

The situation in Iran is characterized by a complex interplay of internal dynamics and international pressures. While anti-government protests appear to have subsided, replaced by pro-state rallies, the government is actively managing the aftermath, including holding funerals for those who died. The legal system is poised for swift trials for those involved in violence, with the severe charge of Muharaba looming. Internationally, Iran has adopted a defiant stance against US warnings, particularly from President Trump, while simultaneously expressing a willingness for dialogue, albeit under a cloud of historical mistrust. The ongoing internet blackout continues to be a significant challenge for citizens, with its restoration uncertain, highlighting the government's control over information flow during periods of unrest.