Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Chan Chun Sing on rules and trust in changing security landscape

Key Concepts

• The Three Beyonds: A framework describing the evolution of conflict beyond geography, military power, and the immediate timeframe.
• Regulation Paradox: The dilemma of regulating emerging technologies—acting too early stifles innovation, while acting too late allows harmful norms to become entrenched.
• Lawfare: The use of legal systems and principles to achieve strategic or military objectives.
• Critical Underwater Infrastructure (CUI): Vital subsea cables and pipelines that underpin global connectivity.
• GUIDE (Guiding Principles for Underwater Infrastructure Defense Exchanges): A non-legally binding multilateral initiative to protect subsea infrastructure.
• Double Helix of Stability: The interdependent relationship between domestic cohesion and international cooperation.

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1. The Evolution of Conflict: "The Three Beyonds"

Minister Chan Chun Singh argues that conflict has fundamentally shifted in nature, requiring a departure from traditional security paradigms:

• Beyond Geography: Conflicts are no longer isolated. Hyperconnectivity means that regional disputes (e.g., Eastern Europe, Middle East) cause global disruptions in supply chains and production.
• Beyond Military Power: Modern conflict involves a multi-dimensional interplay of economic leverage, narrative warfare, and "lawfare" to reshape global norms.
• Beyond the Here and Now: Conflicts are increasingly about setting long-term frameworks for future contests, specifically regarding access to vital lifelines like energy grids, data systems, and water.

2. Strategic Responses: Principles, Partnerships, and Politics

To adapt to these changes, Singapore proposes a three-pronged approach:

A. Principles, Institutions, and Norms

• Argument: While the current international system is imperfect, it must be refreshed rather than discarded. Abandoning rules for transactional, "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies leads to a negative spiral that erodes business confidence and slows global growth.
• Case Study: The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is cited as essential for maintaining the right of transit passage. The Minister emphasizes that keeping sea lanes open is a matter of "enlightened self-interest" for all nations, citing the Strait of Hormuz as a reminder of the risks when maritime rights are challenged.

B. Partnerships

• Framework: The Minister describes international cooperation as a "lattice." Multilateral institutions (like the UN) serve as the "pillars" (providing legitimacy), while flexible, issue-based coalitions serve as the "connecting beams" (providing agility).
• Real-World Applications:
  • Cybersecurity: Singapore’s ADMM Cybersecurity and Information Centre of Excellence (ACIC) works to implement 11 UN norms on responsible state behavior in cyberspace.
  • AI Governance: Singapore collaborates with the Netherlands and South Korea to establish guardrails for military AI.
  • CUI Security: The launch of GUIDE, involving 17 countries, aims to build shared practices for protecting underwater infrastructure before crises occur.

C. Domestic Politics

• Perspective: Domestic cohesion is a prerequisite for international influence. A divided society limits a government's ability to negotiate abroad.
• Key Quote: "Domestic stability and external collaboration form a double helix that can and must reinforce each other in these rough seas."
• Argument: Populist, short-term solutions erode long-term resilience. True leadership requires the courage to address domestic challenges directly rather than blaming external actors.

3. Notable Quotes

• "Regulate too early and we risk stifling innovation. Regulate too late and norms have become entrenched and too difficult to reverse." (On the Regulation Paradox)
• "Our challenges will not define us. Our responses to our challenges will define us."
• "The stronger our trust at home, the more cohesive we are, the better place we are to work with others abroad."

4. Synthesis and Conclusion

The Minister concludes that while the current global environment is characterized by heightened instability, it also presents an opportunity to strengthen cooperation. By moving away from zero-sum competition and toward a model of "flexible, issue-based arrangements," nations can build the necessary trust to navigate emerging domains like AI and subsea infrastructure. The ultimate takeaway is that international security is not a static state but a continuous process of refreshing rules, building resilient domestic foundations, and fostering practical, multi-stakeholder partnerships.