‘Sham is not even strong enough’: Former US envoy on Myanmar’s election

Key Concepts

• Honta: The State Administration Council, the military junta currently ruling Myanmar.
• USDP: Union Solidarity and Development Party, the military-backed political party.
• Five-Point Consensus: A plan proposed by ASEAN to resolve the Myanmar crisis, largely ignored by the military junta.
• Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs): Armed groups representing various ethnic minorities in Myanmar, often in conflict with the central government.
• Brain Drain: The emigration of highly trained or intelligent people from a particular country.
• Sham Election: An election that is not genuinely free or fair, and whose outcome is predetermined.

Political Landscape Following the Myanmar Election

The recent election in Myanmar, described by Ambassador Marciel as a “sham,” has not fundamentally altered the political situation on the ground. The military, through the Honta, exerted complete control over the electoral process, dissolving the largest political party, imprisoning pro-democracy leaders, and suppressing any criticism. The outcome – a landslide victory for the military-backed USDP – is essentially a rebranding exercise, with generals exchanging uniforms for civilian attire. As Marciel states, “this is really just uh going to be a bunch of generals and their allies and the USDP party um taking off their uniforms and putting on uh civilian clothes.”

The election’s primary purpose appears to be external legitimization, particularly aimed at securing support from countries like China. Marciel suggests the generals operate within a “bubble” and may underestimate the extent of their unpopularity domestically. He posits that China strongly pushed for the election as a potential “exit strategy” for the situation.

Resistance and Internal Dynamics

Despite losing momentum, the resistance to the Honta remains active. The turning point in the decline of resistance strength was China’s increased economic support to the junta, which bolstered the economy and allowed the military to regain some footing. However, the military still does not control significant portions of the country, and morale within its ranks remains low. The resistance faces challenges in fundraising and internal cohesion, a recurring issue in Myanmar’s political landscape.

Marciel highlights a significant “brain drain” from Myanmar, with those able to leave doing so, posing a long-term problem for the country’s development. He also notes the historical pattern of Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) accommodating pressure from China in the short term, only to revert to opposition against the military. “I would expect that will continue,” he states.

China’s Role and Regional Implications

China’s backing of the election does not create a path to long-term stability, according to Ambassador Marciel. He anticipates continued opposition to the military, both armed and civilian. China’s growing influence places pressure on ASEAN states to re-engage with Myanmar, even with doubts about the election’s legitimacy.

The ASEAN Five-Point Consensus, intended to resolve the crisis, has “failed utterly” due to the military’s unwillingness to compromise. This failure, coupled with China’s influence, may lead some ASEAN members to favor further engagement with Myanmar despite the election’s flawed nature.

US Policy and its Shift

Ambassador Marciel criticizes the current US administration’s approach to Myanmar, characterizing it as a departure from the long-standing US policy of supporting democracy and human rights. He attributes this to a broader shift under the Trump administration, describing it as “rather embarrassing as a former US diplomat.” He suggests that Myanmar is a low priority for the current US administration, resulting in “neglect” rather than active opposition.

Impact on the People of Myanmar

For ordinary people in Myanmar, particularly those in conflict-affected and minority regions, the election is unlikely to bring significant change. Marciel predicts a continuation of the current situation: “They will go from a military in uniform governing them badly and brutalizing them to, you know, generals and their and their allies in civilian clothes governing them badly and brutalizing them.” He emphasizes the “tremendous suffering” endured by millions of people in Myanmar and suggests that substantial change would require a new government to implement significant economic reforms and adopt a different approach.

Conclusion

The Myanmar election is a facade designed to secure external legitimacy, primarily from China, and consolidate the military’s power. While the resistance has lost momentum, it remains active, and the underlying issues of ethnic conflict, economic mismanagement, and widespread opposition to military rule persist. The situation is unlikely to improve without a fundamental shift in the military’s approach or significant external pressure, and the current US policy appears to offer little in the way of constructive engagement. The daily lives of ordinary Myanmar citizens will likely remain unchanged, marked by continued hardship and repression.