China’s sham election: Why Beijing is propping up Myanmar’s brutal junta

Battle Lines: Global Health Security – Myanmar Election & Conflict (January 21, 2026)

Key Concepts:

• Sham Election (2025/26): The recent Myanmar election widely dismissed as illegitimate, used by the military junta to seek credibility.
• Military Junta (Tatmadaw): The ruling military government of Myanmar, responsible for the 2021 coup and ongoing repression.
• Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM): The widespread resistance to the military coup, including protests, strikes, and armed conflict.
• Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs): Various armed groups representing different ethnic minorities, some of whom are actively fighting against the military.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The severe deterioration of living conditions in Myanmar, including widespread displacement, food insecurity, and lack of access to healthcare.
• China’s Role: China’s strategic interest in Myanmar’s stability, its economic investments, and its support for the military junta.
• Scam Centers: Organized crime operations in Myanmar, often involving human trafficking and forced labor, with significant Chinese involvement.
• Forced Conscription: The military’s practice of forcibly recruiting citizens into the armed forces.
• Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations): Regional organization that Myanmar is a member of, and the junta’s desire to regain full participation.

1. The Political Landscape & The Election

The episode focuses on Myanmar’s recent election (held in phases from December 28th to January 25th, 2026) and its context within the ongoing civil conflict following the 2021 military coup. The election is widely considered a “sham” designed by the military junta (Tatmadaw) to legitimize its rule. Sarah Nui, having recently visited Yangon, describes a surface-level normalcy masking deep economic hardship and fear. Key observations include:

• Economic Collapse: The currency has deflated significantly (80% drop against the US dollar since 2020), leading to widespread economic struggles, with many young people forced to work instead of attending school and a shrinking middle class.
• Repression & Fear: A new election law severely restricts criticism, with penalties including up to 49 years in prison for minor offenses like distributing boycott stickers. People are afraid to speak to journalists, fearing repercussions for themselves and their families.
• Low Voter Turnout & Demographics: Polling stations saw a disproportionate number of older voters, potentially due to fear or a lack of interest among younger generations who have fled the country or joined the resistance.
• Visible Voting: The continued practice of dipping fingers in ink after voting makes it publicly visible who has participated, potentially leading to targeting of non-voters.
• Election Results: The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the military-backed party, claimed 80% of the votes with a reported 50% turnout – figures considered unreliable.

2. The Situation on the Ground: Yangon vs. Rebel Areas

Sarah Nui contrasts the situation in Yangon with rebel-held areas. While Yangon appears relatively calm on the surface, with a visible police presence but limited military presence, rebel areas experience frequent airstrikes, poverty, and hunger. The absence of young people is a striking feature in both areas, with many fleeing forced conscription or seeking work abroad. The military presence was more noticeable in Mandalay than in Yangon during her visit.

3. China’s Strategic Interests

Joe Freeman explains China’s significant interest in Myanmar, primarily driven by:

• Stability: China prioritizes stability along its 1,300-mile border with Myanmar.
• Economic Interests: Myanmar is crucial for China’s infrastructure projects, particularly the deep-sea port in Rakhine State.
• Arms Supply & Political Support: China has historically been a major arms supplier to the Myanmar military and provides diplomatic cover at the UN Security Council.
• Shifting Support: In 2025, China demonstrably increased its support for the military, reversing a previous more nuanced approach. This included tacit approval for rebel groups to initially attack the military (Operation 1027) but then pressuring them to relinquish gained territory.
• Credibility Laundering: China views the election as a way for the military to regain international legitimacy.

4. Russia’s Role & International Involvement

Russia is also a key backer of the Myanmar military, providing arms, fighter jets, and political support. Joe Freeman highlights Russia’s willingness to engage with the junta, including high-profile visits and military parades. The episode emphasizes a broader trend of international disengagement from Myanmar, with countries like the US reducing aid and even closing embassies, creating a vacuum that China is filling.

5. The Rise of Scam Centers & Organized Crime

Myanmar has become a hub for illicit activities, including human trafficking, scam centers, the drug trade, and illegal wildlife trade. China is increasingly concerned about these activities, particularly the scam centers involving Chinese nationals, and is pressuring Myanmar to crack down on them. While some operations have been disrupted, the problem is evolving, with scam centers becoming more decentralized.

6. The Status of the Conflict & Humanitarian Crisis

The conflict in Myanmar is escalating, with a 30% increase in airstrikes in 2025. The humanitarian situation is dire, with 3.5 million people displaced and an estimated 7-8 million children out of school. The military is regaining ground through force conscription and renewed support from China. The situation in Rakhine State is particularly critical, with large segments of the population facing famine due to a blockade.

7. The Future Outlook & Call for International Action

The episode concludes with a pessimistic outlook, predicting further offensives by the military and a continued deterioration of the humanitarian situation. Joe Freeman urges the international community to recommit to Myanmar, providing aid, advocating for the release of political prisoners, supporting international justice efforts (including the Rohingya genocide trial at the ICJ), and holding the military accountable for its actions. Despite the bleak situation, he acknowledges the resilience of the Myanmar people and their continued resistance.

Notable Quotes:

• Sarah Nui: “It was striking to me how much people were struggling and talking about fuel…young people, 12, 15 year olds who've now had to start working instead of going to school.”
• Sarah Nui: “If I vote, I feel like I'm betraying my own beliefs. If I don't vote, I worry that my name will be noted and I could be questioned later. Every decision feels dangerous.” (Quoted from The Telegraph article)
• Joe Freeman: “This election is a kind of human rights or credibility laundering.”
• Joe Freeman: “For civilians, for people of Myanmar, for the people who are in the resistance, the stakes are their lives.”

Technical Terms:

• Tatmadaw: The official name of the Myanmar military.
• Asean: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a regional intergovernmental organization.
• EAOs: Ethnic Armed Organizations, armed groups representing various ethnic minorities.
• ICJ: International Court of Justice, the principal judicial organ of the United Nations.
• Sham Election: An election that is not free or fair and is designed to legitimize an existing regime.

Logical Connections:

The episode logically progresses from describing the immediate context of the election to analyzing the underlying political dynamics, the role of external actors (China and Russia), the humanitarian crisis, and the future outlook. The discussion seamlessly connects the election to the broader civil conflict and the military junta’s efforts to consolidate power.

Data & Statistics:

• Currency deflation: 80% drop against the US dollar since 2020.
• Inflation rate: 30%.
• Displaced population: 3.5 million.
• Children out of school: 7-8 million.
• Increase in airstrikes: 30% in 2025.
• Election result claim: USDP claimed 80% of votes with 50% turnout.

Conclusion:

The Myanmar election is a facade designed to legitimize the military junta’s rule amidst a brutal civil conflict and a deepening humanitarian crisis. China’s increasing support for the military is a key factor in the junta’s resurgence, while international disengagement is exacerbating the situation. The future of Myanmar remains uncertain, but the resilience of the Myanmar people and renewed international engagement are crucial for achieving a peaceful and democratic resolution.