Russia-Ukraine war: Macron and Starmer co-chair "Coalition of the Willing" meeting on Ukraine

Key Concepts

• Coalition of the willing: A group of countries (including European states, Canada, Australia, and Japan) offering security guarantees and support to Ukraine.
• Security guarantees: Commitments from various nations to help protect Ukraine from future aggression.
• Potential Putin-Zelensky summit: A proposed meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents, potentially hosted in Geneva.
• Demilitarization of Ukraine: Russia's stated goal of reducing the size and strength of the Ukrainian army.
• U.S. security guarantees: Promises from the U.S. to help secure Ukraine, but without U.S. boots on the ground.
• ICC warrant: The International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, which complicates the choice of venue for any potential summit.
• Legitimacy of Zelensky: Past questioning by Russia of Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy as the Ukrainian president.

Coalition of the Willing and Security Guarantees

• A virtual meeting of the "coalition of the willing" was held, following a meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelensky.
• The coalition, co-chaired by French President Macron and British Prime Minister, discussed a framework for security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Discussions focused on the specific contributions of each member state, including potential deployment of naval ships (UK), troops (France), and support along Ukraine's borders (e.g., Poland).
• The coalition is considering whether to support an increase in the size of the Ukrainian army, in contrast to Putin's demand for demilitarization.
• The coalition includes European states, Canada, Australia, and Japan.

Potential Putin-Zelensky Summit

• Arrangements are being made for a potential summit between Presidents Putin and Zelensky.
• President Macron has suggested Geneva as a possible host city.
• The Swiss government stated that they would not arrest Putin under the ICC warrant if he attends a peace conference in Switzerland.
• Donald Trump stated he hopes the meeting will be good, but it's possible Putin doesn't want to make a deal.

U.S. Involvement and Trump's Perspective

• Trump wants to be seen as a peacemaker and is pushing to make the summit happen.
• Trump is willing to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, despite past opposition from his base.
• Trump clarified that there would be no U.S. boots on the ground in Ukraine.
• Trump's approach is different from the Biden administration, which focused on isolating Putin. Trump is aiming for direct engagement.
• Trump said that he will find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks.

Russian Perspective and Preconditions

• The Kremlin stated that Presidents Putin and Trump agreed that direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow should continue.
• The possibility of increasing the level of delegates in talks was discussed, potentially leading to a leader's summit.
• Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that any high-level meetings must be very well prepared.
• Russia seeks lasting peace in Ukraine and security guarantees for itself.
• Russia has rejected the possibility of NATO troops being deployed to Ukraine.
• Dasha Genish noted that in Ukraine itself, there is a ban on negotiating with Russia, creating preconditions for any summit.

Challenges and Uncertainties

• The willingness of all parties to participate in future talks remains a question.
• Putin's intentions are uncertain, and he may not want to make a deal.
• The choice of venue for a potential summit is complicated by the ICC warrant for Putin.
• Many details and formalities need to be worked out before any summit can take place.

Conclusion

The situation surrounding potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remains fragile, despite recent momentum. The "coalition of the willing" is actively discussing security guarantees for Ukraine, while efforts are underway to arrange a summit between Presidents Putin and Zelensky. However, significant challenges remain, including uncertainty about Putin's willingness to negotiate, preconditions set by both sides, and logistical hurdles related to the ICC warrant. Trump's willingness to engage directly with Putin and offer security guarantees to Ukraine represents a shift in U.S. policy, but the ultimate success of these efforts remains to be seen.