LIVE: Macron and Starmer chair 'Coalition of the Willing' conference

Discussion on Support for Ukraine - Coalition of the Willing Meeting

Key Concepts:

• Air Defense: Critical need for Ukraine, specifically Patriot systems (Patriot 3 & 2).
• Sanctions: Continued and strengthened sanctions against Russia, focusing on the shadow fleet.
• 90 Billion Euro Package: EU financial aid package for Ukraine, facing implementation challenges.
• Negotiations: Importance of European involvement in any peace talks, skepticism about Russian willingness for genuine peace.
• Security Guarantees: Development of robust, long-term security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Shadow Fleet: Network of tankers used to circumvent sanctions on Russian oil.
• Defense Industrial Cooperation: Strengthening collaboration to increase military support for Ukraine.

I. Opening Remarks & Urgent Needs (Volodymyr)

Volodymyr expressed gratitude for the ongoing support from the coalition of willing, highlighting the historical significance of the current challenge. He emphasized Russia’s targeting of Ukrainian civilians and energy infrastructure, particularly during the recent winter. The primary immediate need is for air defense systems – specifically Patriot 3 and 2 from the United States – to protect against Russian attacks. He acknowledged the recent air defense package but indicated it may not be sufficient, noting that half of it arrived two days prior. He also stressed the importance of continued sanctions, particularly targeting the Russian shadow fleet of tankers, and the swift disbursement of the 90 billion Euro aid package. Finally, he underscored the need for European involvement in any future negotiations with Russia, while also preparing for potential continued challenges from the Russian side.

II. Continued Support & Sanctions (Emanuel)

Emanuel reaffirmed the coalition’s unwavering support for Ukraine, acknowledging the skepticism surrounding short-term peace prospects due to a perceived lack of willingness from Russia to engage in genuine peace negotiations. He outlined three key priorities: continued support for Ukraine (including the delivery of the 90 billion Euro package, with Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Guterres expected to provide updates), increased pressure on Russia through sanctions (specifically targeting the shadow fleet), and finalizing security guarantees for Ukraine. He highlighted recent successful operations against the shadow fleet, particularly by Denmark, noting the increasing costs (insurance and penalties) are crippling the business model. He emphasized the need to follow up on ideas from the NB8 (Baltic states) to further disrupt these activities. He also stressed the importance of finalizing the security guarantee framework, urging colleagues to lift caveats to facilitate the process and potentially accelerate key pillars.

Notable Quote: "Let's be lucid there is no willingness on the Russian side to… to have a peace and by the way to have a rob and solid peace as we see fitted uh at this very moment." - Emanuel

III. German Commitment & Pressure on Russia (Friedrich Mertz - Video Message)

Friedrich Mertz, via a pre-recorded video message due to a state funeral, reiterated Germany’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine, stating it is currently Ukraine’s strongest supporter. He announced an increase in German military support to 11.5 billion Euro for 2026 and a deepening of defense industrial cooperation. He confirmed efforts to operationalize the 90 billion Euro loan, aiming for initial disbursements in April. He emphasized the need to increase pressure on Russia to dry up its war funding through the 20th package of sanctions. He asserted that Russia is not winning the war and that a lasting peace requires Russia to realize it cannot win, without rewarding aggression through territorial concessions. He stressed that European security is inseparable from Ukrainian security and that any peace negotiations must include European participation.

Notable Quote: “This war will only end when Putin realizes that he cannot win.” - Friedrich Mertz

IV. NATO Perspective (Mark)

Mark was introduced to provide the NATO perspective, but his contribution was cut short at the end of the transcript.

V. Data & Statistics Mentioned:

• 90 Billion Euro: EU financial aid package for Ukraine.
• 11.5 Billion Euro: Germany’s military support commitment for 2026.
• Shadow Fleet: Operations are increasing insurance costs and penalties, disrupting the business model. (Specific figures on disruption were not provided, but the impact was described as significant).
• 20th Package of Sanctions: EU is preparing a 20th package of sanctions against Russia.

VI. Logical Connections & Frameworks:

The discussion followed a logical progression: identifying immediate needs (air defense, financial aid), outlining strategies for continued support (sanctions, security guarantees), and emphasizing the long-term goal of a sustainable peace. The speakers presented a unified front, reinforcing the commitment of the coalition to Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. The discussion highlighted a multi-faceted approach, combining military aid, economic pressure, and diplomatic efforts.

VII. Technical Terms & Concepts:

• Patriot (3 & 2): Advanced, long-range, all-weather air defense systems.
• Shadow Fleet: A network of tankers used to circumvent international sanctions on Russian oil exports, often employing deceptive shipping practices.
• VTC: Video Teleconference.
• NB8: The Nordic-Baltic Eight – a regional cooperation forum consisting of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden.
• Caveats: Conditions or reservations attached to agreements or commitments.

Conclusion:

The meeting underscored the unwavering commitment of the coalition of willing to support Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression. The focus remains on providing immediate assistance (air defense, financial aid), intensifying pressure on Russia through sanctions, and establishing robust long-term security guarantees for Ukraine. While acknowledging the challenges and skepticism surrounding peace negotiations, the coalition remains united in its determination to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and security, and to hold Russia accountable for its actions. The emphasis on European involvement in negotiations and the need to disrupt the Russian shadow fleet highlight key strategic priorities for the coming months.