Rubio's diplomatic push in the Gulf: US secretary of state reassures GCC allies on Iran

Key Concepts

• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint for global oil and commercial shipping.
• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): A diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran regarding the Strait, which implicitly grants Iran significant authority.
• UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea): The international legal framework governing maritime waters, which neither the US nor Iran has ratified.
• Customary International Law: The basis upon which the US argues for freedom of navigation, despite not being a signatory to UNCLOS.
• Territorial Waters: The sovereign maritime zones of Iran and Oman that overlap across the Strait, complicating international transit claims.

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1. Geopolitical Power Dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz

Professor Sultan Barakat argues that the recent projectile attack on a commercial vessel is a manifestation of Iran asserting its newfound authority over the Strait. Under the terms of the US-Iran MOU, Iran has been granted the role of clearing obstacles and managing traffic.

• Strategic Enforcement: Iran is attempting to force commercial traffic into a specific central channel that they claim to have "cleared," while pushing vessels away from the southern lane (closer to Oman).
• The 30-Day Window: Barakat suggests that Iran is utilizing the initial 30-day period of the 60-day agreement to solidify its control before the US fulfills further obligations.

2. Legal Complexities and Sovereignty

The conflict over the Strait is exacerbated by a lack of formal legal commitment from the primary actors:

• Non-Ratification: Neither the US nor Iran has ratified UNCLOS. Consequently, both nations invoke the convention selectively while relying on "customary law" to support their respective positions.
• MOU Limitations: The MOU explicitly addresses "commercial traffic" but remains silent on military transit. Furthermore, the agreement acknowledges the sovereignty of Iran and Oman over their respective territorial waters, which, due to the geography of the Strait, effectively covers the entire passage.

3. US-Gulf State Relations

The US is currently attempting to reassure Gulf states regarding their security and the continued presence of US forces. However, Barakat notes:

• Implicit Withdrawal: The MOU includes language regarding the "removal of US forces from proximity" to Iran, which directly impacts the security architecture of the Gulf states.
• Gulf Disunity: A major obstacle for the Gulf states is their lack of a unified front.
  • Bahrain and the UAE: Aligned in their concerns.
  • Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait: Maintaining a different perspective.
  • Saudi Arabia: Remaining largely silent and detached from the current negotiations.
• Actionable Insight: Barakat emphasizes that unless the Gulf states coalesce into a single, unified bloc, they risk being sidelined by the diplomatic "train" moving forward, leaving them unable to influence the future arrangements of the Strait.

4. Economic and Security Implications

• Insurance and Shipping: The incident involving the cargo vessel is expected to heighten anxiety among international shipping and insurance companies, potentially disrupting the restoration of maritime traffic.
• The "Power Play": The current situation is described as a calculated power play. Iran is leveraging the ambiguity of the MOU to dictate the terms of navigation, effectively testing the limits of US influence in the region.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant shift in regional power dynamics. By securing an MOU that grants them authority over traffic management and acknowledges their territorial sovereignty, Iran is successfully asserting control over the waterway. The US is hampered by its own lack of UNCLOS ratification and the specific, limited language of the MOU, which prioritizes commercial traffic over military presence. The primary takeaway is that the Gulf states are currently vulnerable due to internal divisions; without a unified regional strategy, they are likely to lose their ability to shape the long-term security and operational arrangements of the Strait.