Questions over One Nation candidate in Farrer by-election | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Farrer By-election: A critical electoral contest for a long-standing Coalition stronghold seat in New South Wales.
• One Nation: A right-wing populist political party led by Pauline Hanson, seeking to secure its first lower house federal seat.
• Preference Swapping: A strategic electoral arrangement where parties direct their voters' secondary preferences to specific candidates to block rivals.
• Coalition: The political alliance between the Liberal Party and the National Party in Australia.
• Teal Independents: Independent candidates (represented here by Michelle Milthorp) who typically advocate for climate action and integrity in politics.
• Balance of Power: The position held by minor parties when they can determine the success or failure of government legislation.

1. The Farrer By-election Context

The Farrer by-election, triggered by the vacancy left by former Liberal leader Sussan Lee, has become a high-stakes battleground. The seat, which spans the New South Wales side of the Murray River, is traditionally a Coalition stronghold. However, the strong performance of independent candidate Michelle Milthorp in the previous federal election has created a genuine risk of an upset. This contest is viewed as a significant test for the new Liberal leader, Angus Taylor; a loss here would likely trigger internal party questioning regarding the leadership transition.

2. The David Farley Controversy

One Nation’s candidate for Farrer, David Farley—an agri-businessman and former National Party member—faced a major scandal just weeks before the election. Reports revealed that Farley had previously attempted to join the Labor Party and had donated to their campaign during the 2023 Aston by-election.

• Political Fallout: The revelation was described as "blindsiding" the One Nation leadership. Opponents have used this to argue that "a vote for One Nation is a vote for Labor," attempting to undermine the party's anti-establishment brand.
• Party Response: Pauline Hanson defended Farley, stating that the party focuses on a candidate's current philosophy rather than their past affiliations. She dismissed the significance of his previous political leanings, suggesting that voters and candidates are not "held to their position for eternity."

3. Strategic Alliances and Preference Deals

A pivotal development in the race is the agreement between the Liberal/National Coalition and One Nation to preference each other over the independent candidate, Michelle Milthorp.

• The Strategy: The Coalition aims to prevent "teal" policies from gaining a foothold in regional Australia.
• Significance: This marks a potential turning point where Coalition preferences could be the decisive factor in electing a One Nation candidate to the lower house for the first time. Barnaby Joyce has emphasized the importance of this deal, framing the rise of One Nation as a permanent shift in the Australian political landscape.

4. Future Implications: Balance of Power

The video highlights the broader implications of a potential One Nation victory in Farrer. If the party secures a seat in the lower house, it could gain significant momentum for the next federal election.

• Policy Demands: Pauline Hanson indicated that if One Nation were to hold the balance of power in a minority government, they would demand specific policy concessions in exchange for "supply and confidence."
• Specific Demands: Barnaby Joyce noted that these demands would likely include the abolition of the Department of Climate Change and the cessation of government support for wind and solar energy projects.

5. Notable Quotes

• Pauline Hanson: "We look at people with the philosophies they have now, not the philosophies they used to have."
• Barnaby Joyce: "The dynamics in Australian politics has changed... We're seeing that the rise of One Nation, it's not an aberration. It's real. People can either accept it or get run over by it."
• Unnamed Source (on the Liberal Party): "If they fail to win that seat, then I think a lot of people in the Liberal Party will think, 'What was the point in changing Sussan Lee for Angus Taylor?'"

Synthesis and Conclusion

The Farrer by-election serves as a microcosm of the shifting tensions in Australian politics. The race pits the traditional Coalition against both the rising influence of independent candidates and the populist surge of One Nation. While the controversy surrounding David Farley’s past ties to the Labor Party has created a narrative of inconsistency for One Nation, the strategic preference deal with the Coalition remains the most significant factor in the race. The outcome on May 9 will not only determine the representative for Farrer but will also signal whether the Coalition’s strategy to align with One Nation to block independents is a viable path for future electoral success.