Parliamentary elections mark 'historical moment' for Armenia, expert says • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• "Real Armenia" (Realistic Armenia): A foreign policy doctrine championed by PM Nikol Pashinyan aimed at normalizing relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
• CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization): A Russia-led military alliance; Armenia’s membership is currently under scrutiny due to Russia's perceived failure to intervene in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
• "Georgian Scenario": A political risk where a country ostensibly pursues pro-European policies while remaining under the de facto influence of Russian-aligned oligarchs.
• Economic Dependency: Armenia’s reliance on Russia for energy (Gazprom), remittances from the Armenian diaspora in Russia, and export markets.

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1. The Stakes of the Armenian Election

Professor Ulrich Schmid characterizes the current election as a "historical moment" for Armenia. The central tension lies in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s attempt to pivot the nation toward a "Real Armenia" policy. This involves:

• Normalization: Seeking diplomatic breakthroughs with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
• The "Traps": Armenia is historically constrained by the "Turkish trap" (Turkey’s refusal to acknowledge the 1915 genocide) and the "Azerbaijan trap" (the 2023 expulsion of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh).
• Domestic Opposition: Pashinyan faces significant internal backlash, with critics labeling his concessions as treasonous.

2. Russian Interference and Economic Coercion

Schmid highlights that Russia is actively meddling in the election to undermine Pashinyan’s pro-Western shift.

• Direct Threats: Vladimir Putin has explicitly warned the Armenian population of "negative consequences" if they continue to support Pashinyan’s current trajectory.
• Trade Sanctions: Russia has implemented import bans on key Armenian goods, including fruit, vegetables, cognac, and mineral water, directly impacting the Armenian agricultural sector.
• Energy Leverage: Russia has threatened to triple the price of natural gas imports if Armenia does not align with Russian geopolitical interests.

3. The Pivot Away from Russia

The shift in Armenian foreign policy is driven by a widespread perception that Russia failed its obligations as a security guarantor.

• CSTO Failure: Despite Armenia being a member of the CSTO, Russia did not intervene during the armed conflict with Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh.
• Identity Shift: Many Armenians increasingly identify as a European nation, fueling the desire to move away from the Russian sphere of influence.

4. Economic Vulnerabilities

Armenia faces a precarious economic situation due to its deep integration with Russia:

• Remittances: A significant portion of the Armenian economy relies on money sent home by the large Armenian diaspora working in Russia. Russia could weaponize this by imposing adverse conditions on these workers.
• Energy Monopoly: Armenia’s energy infrastructure is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas provided by Gazprom.

5. Political Risks: The "Georgian Scenario"

A critical point of the discussion is the potential for a "Georgian scenario." If Pashinyan fails to secure a two-thirds majority to amend the constitution, the country could fall into a state of political "limbo."

• The Oligarch Factor: Schmid points to Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire, as a potential parallel to Bidzina Ivanishvili in Georgia.
• The Risk: There is a danger that Armenia could end up with a government that claims to be pro-European while secretly serving Russian geopolitical interests, effectively stalling Armenia's democratic and Western integration.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The Armenian election represents a pivotal struggle between maintaining traditional, albeit restrictive, ties with Russia and pursuing a risky but potentially transformative path toward Western integration and regional normalization. While Pashinyan is favored to win, his ability to execute his "Real Armenia" agenda is severely hampered by Russian economic coercion, the threat of energy price hikes, and the potential for internal political destabilization via oligarchic influence. The outcome will determine whether Armenia successfully pivots toward Europe or remains trapped in a Russian-dominated geopolitical orbit.