'Democratic backsliding': Armenia's 'extreme polarisation, hate speech, stigmatization' mar election

Key Concepts

• Civil Contract Party: The ruling political party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
• Geopolitical Balancing: Armenia’s strategy of pivoting toward the European Union while managing dependencies on Russia.
• Democratic Backsliding: Concerns regarding the misuse of state resources, suppression of dissent, and the detention of political critics.
• Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: The central security issue involving the 2023 takeover of the region by Azerbaijan and the subsequent displacement of the Armenian population.
• Constitutional Majority: The threshold the ruling party sought to achieve to facilitate constitutional changes demanded by Azerbaijan as a precondition for a peace treaty.

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1. Election Overview and Results

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party secured victory in the recent parliamentary elections, garnering 49.81% of the vote. The election was characterized by a geopolitical narrative of Armenia shifting westward, though domestic issues remained equally critical to the electorate. The process was marred by allegations of irregularities, with the Armenian Investigative Committee opening 59 criminal cases related to electoral violations, including instances of multiple voting and vote-buying.

2. Geopolitical Strategy: The "Balanced" Approach

Narek Sukiasyan, a senior policy researcher, clarifies that while international observers view the election through a "geopolitical chessboard" lens, the reality is more nuanced:

• Diversification: The ruling party aims to diversify economic and trade relations to mitigate the impact of Russian sanctions on Armenian exports.
• Security Concerns: Security remains the primary concern for voters. Pashinyan’s platform emphasized "regional prosperity" and the institutionalization of peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
• The "Westward" Shift: The government is attempting to navigate a delicate path—getting closer to the EU without triggering a severe backlash from Russia.

3. Voter Demographics and Polarization

A notable finding discussed is the voting behavior of Armenia’s youth:

• Polarization: Youth politics in Armenia is highly polarized. Voting is often driven by "negative partisanship"—voting against a party one dislikes rather than for a party one supports.
• Generational Divide: Unlike in many other nations, the youth are not necessarily the primary drivers of pro-European sentiment; the elderly are often more staunchly pro-European, having experienced the "hybrid authoritarianism" of previous regimes.

4. Democratic Backsliding and Civil Liberties

The interview highlights concerns regarding the ruling party’s use of state resources and treatment of dissent:

• The Arthur Osipyan Case: The detention of Arthur Osipyan, a refugee from Karabakh who confronted the Prime Minister, has become a focal point for civil society. His 20-day hunger strike has mobilized activists and serves as a litmus test for the government’s commitment to democratic norms.
• Hate Speech: The campaign was noted for high levels of stigmatization and hate speech across the political spectrum.

5. The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and Peace Process

The war with Azerbaijan remains the defining backdrop of Armenian politics:

• Stability vs. Cost: Pashinyan’s leadership is framed as essential for peace, with the past year marking an unprecedented period without combat losses. However, this stability was achieved at the cost of the ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population from Karabakh.
• Unresolved Issues: Azerbaijan continues to hold detainees in Baku and occupies over 250 square kilometers of Armenian territory.
• Constitutional Deadlock: A final peace agreement, initialed in Washington, remains stalled because Azerbaijan demands changes to the Armenian Constitution. The ruling party’s failure to secure a "constitutional majority" in these elections complicates their ability to meet this specific precondition.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The election results confirm a mandate for Nikol Pashinyan to continue his "balanced" foreign policy and pursuit of peace with Azerbaijan. However, the victory is tempered by significant domestic challenges, including the failure to secure a constitutional majority, ongoing concerns regarding democratic backsliding, and the unresolved security threats posed by the continued occupation of Armenian territory. The path forward requires "creative solutions" to navigate the constitutional impasse with Azerbaijan while maintaining the fragile stability achieved over the last year.