One Nation support surges to 22 per cent in Newspoll

Key Concepts

• Political Polling Data: Analysis of recent polls regarding Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the One Nation party.
• One Nation Surge: Significant increase in support for the One Nation party, particularly following events related to Bondi.
• Primary Vote: The first preference vote received by a party in an election.
• Senate Representation: Potential for One Nation to significantly increase its representation in the Australian Senate.
• Susan Lee: Referenced as a point of comparison in public approval.

Australian Political Landscape: A Surge in Support for One Nation & Declining PM Approval

This analysis focuses on recent polling data revealing a significant decline in support for Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and a corresponding surge in support for the One Nation party. The data is presented with a focus on specific figures and trends.

Prime Minister Albanese’s Declining Approval

The presenter highlights a substantial drop in Prime Minister Albanese’s approval ratings, directly linking it to public reaction regarding events at Bondi. A graph illustrates this decline, showing Albanese (represented by the red line) losing 25 points in support in just a few weeks, returning to levels coinciding with previous cost of living concerns. This is contrasted with Susan Lee (blue line) whose approval remains comparatively stable. Specifically, 53% of people approved of Susan Lee’s handling of the Bondi situation, a figure roughly equivalent to the percentage of people who vote Labor.

The Rise of One Nation

The core narrative centers on the dramatic increase in support for One Nation. Initial skepticism regarding an opinion poll showing a tripling of support for the party has been confirmed by the News Poll primary vote. This poll reveals that the opposition is now trailing behind One Nation, with a result of 22% for One Nation against 21% for the opposition – a historically high figure for the party.

The presenter references a long history of covering One Nation, dating back to 2016 with Pauline Hanson’s Senate bid and subsequent coverage of the 2019, 2022, and upcoming 2025 elections. The presenter emphasizes that this support isn’t simply noise, but reflects genuine backing for One Nation’s “serious ideas.”

Detailed Polling Results & Potential Senate Impact

A Resolve poll (via Nine Newspapers) further confirms the surge, showing One Nation’s vote share more than doubling from 6% in the last federal election. A state-by-state breakdown reveals an even more compelling story. The presenter explains that the current polling numbers, if replicated in an election, would result in a doubling of One Nation’s Senate representation.

Specifically, this would likely translate to:

• An additional senator from New South Wales.
• Re-election of Pauline Hanson in Queensland.
• A new senator from Victoria.
• Potential for further gains in smaller states like Tasmania, where a smaller voter base means a lower vote threshold for securing a Senate seat.

Pauline Hanson’s Response

Pauline Hanson herself expressed gratitude for the public support, stating, “I want to thank the Australian people for their support and confidence. They are now advocating for One Nation.” She further noted the historical significance of the poll, stating, “This is the first poll in Australia's history that another party is polling higher than one of the major parties.”

Logical Connections & Synthesis

The presentation establishes a clear causal link between public dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister’s handling of events at Bondi and a shift in voter support towards One Nation. The data presented – polling numbers, graphs, and state-by-state breakdowns – consistently reinforces this narrative. The presenter’s historical context, referencing past coverage of One Nation, adds depth and credibility to the analysis.

The key takeaway is that One Nation is experiencing a significant and potentially transformative surge in popularity, positioning itself as a major force in Australian politics and potentially disrupting the traditional two-party system. The data suggests a real possibility of increased Senate representation, giving the party greater influence in the legislative process.