Nvidia, Rates, and Tariffs! Tom's Top 10 Predictions Get Graded by AI | Numbers Scream Ep. 4

2025 Predictions Review: A Performance Report

Key Concepts: S&P 500, Nvidia, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL), Mortgage Rates, Inflation, Tariffs, AI Agents, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), Data Centers, Energy Demand, Tracking Stock.

Introduction

Tom Ellsworth reviews his 10 predictions for 2025, assessing their accuracy based on objective data and evaluations from Gemini and ChatGPT. The review covers a range of economic and technological forecasts, providing detailed analysis of each prediction’s outcome.

1. Elon Musk & TikTok Acquisition

• Prediction: Elon Musk would acquire or gain control of TikTok due to US government concerns regarding data security and potential regulation related to Chinese ownership.
• Outcome: The acquisition did not occur. While Musk expressed interest and engaged in talks, Oracle emerged as a potential contender, though no deal was finalized.
• Grade: B- (self-assessment: C/C-). Gemini and ChatGPT noted Musk’s interest but the lack of a completed acquisition.
• Connection: This prediction stemmed from geopolitical concerns and the potential for Musk to expand his “free speech platform” (X).

2. S&P 500 Performance

• Prediction: The S&P 500 would reach 6,600, anticipating headwinds from interest rates, labor market conditions, and the sustainability of gains among the “Magnificent 7” stocks.
• Outcome: The S&P 500 closed at 6,580 on the first trading day of 2026.
• Grade: A+ (Gemini & ChatGPT).
• Data: The S&P 500 reached 6,580 on January 1st, 2026.
• Connection: This prediction demonstrated Ellsworth’s understanding of market dynamics and potential limiting factors to continued growth.

3. Nvidia’s Stock Performance

• Prediction: Nvidia’s stock would increase by 25%, acknowledging its recent run but anticipating a need to “grow into its profits” and PE ratio.
• Outcome: Nvidia’s stock increased by 25%, experiencing a mid-year dip followed by a recovery.
• Grade: A+ (Gemini & ChatGPT).
• Connection: This prediction highlighted a realistic assessment of Nvidia’s growth trajectory, anticipating a correction before continued gains.

4. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Defaults

• Prediction: BNPL defaults would rise due to increased consumer debt and the accessibility of credit for those already maxed out on credit cards. Credit card balances would exceed $1 trillion.
• Outcome: BNPL defaults rose, prompting warning notices and Congressional involvement, including scrutiny from Elizabeth Warren regarding credit reporting. Credit card balances reached $1.1 trillion.
• Grade: A (Gemini & ChatGPT).
• Data: Consumer credit card balances reached $1.1 trillion in 2025.
• Technical Term: BNPL – “Buy Now, Pay Later” – a short-term financing option allowing consumers to make purchases and pay them off in installments.
• Connection: This prediction focused on the risks associated with expanding credit access to already indebted consumers.

5. Mortgage Rates

• Prediction: Mortgage rates would remain above 6.25%, despite expectations of rate cuts.
• Outcome: Mortgage rates stayed above 6.25%, with only two rate cuts occurring late in the year. Rates averaged around 6.125-6.25% for qualified borrowers.
• Grade: A (Gemini & ChatGPT).
• Connection: This prediction reflected a belief that political factors (tension between Powell and Trump) would hinder significant rate reductions.

6. Inflation Rate

• Prediction: Inflation would not fall to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, remaining stubborn.
• Outcome: Inflation remained at 2.8%, fluctuating slightly but not reaching 2%.
• Grade: A (Gemini & ChatGPT).
• Connection: This prediction anticipated the challenges of achieving the Fed’s inflation target, considering political pressures and economic factors.

7. Tariffs as Tactics

• Prediction: Tariffs would be used as negotiating tactics rather than permanent taxes, leveraging trade deals with Canada and Mexico.
• Outcome: The Trump administration utilized tariff threats to secure favorable trade agreements.
• Grade: A (Gemini & ChatGPT).
• Technical Term: Tariffs – Taxes imposed on imported or exported goods.
• Connection: This prediction demonstrated an understanding of the Trump administration’s trade strategy.

8. Rise of AI Tools

• Prediction: The market would shift from general AI hype to specific enterprise tools for legal, medical, and accounting applications, alongside the emergence of “AI agents.”
• Outcome: The market shifted towards specialized AI tools for enterprise applications, with the rise of AI agents.
• Grade: A- (Gemini & ChatGPT).
• Technical Term: AI Agent – An AI-powered tool designed to perform specific tasks autonomously.
• Connection: This prediction anticipated the practical application of AI beyond general-purpose chatbots.

9. Media Company Sales (MSNBC/CNN)

• Prediction: MSNBC or CNN would be sold due to the decline of traditional cable television.
• Outcome: Neither network was sold outright, but both were spun off into tracking stocks as parent companies sought to sell content libraries.
• Grade: B+ (self-assessment: C+/B-).
• Technical Term: Tracking Stock – A type of stock that represents the performance of a specific division or asset of a company.
• Connection: This prediction reflected the disruption of the media landscape by streaming services.

10. Nuclear Energy Boom

• Prediction: Small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) would experience a resurgence due to increasing energy demands from AI data centers and electric vehicles.
• Outcome: Significant investments were made in SMRs by companies like Amazon and Google, with permits sought for construction near data centers.
• Grade: A+ (Gemini & ChatGPT).
• Technical Term: SMR – “Small Modular Reactor” – a nuclear reactor designed to be smaller, safer, and more efficient than traditional reactors.
• Data: Increased energy demand, with a 6% rise in per capita energy consumption in the US.
• Connection: This prediction highlighted the growing need for reliable and sustainable energy sources to power the expanding digital infrastructure.

Conclusion

Ellsworth’s 2025 predictions demonstrated a strong understanding of economic trends, technological advancements, and geopolitical factors. With six A-level grades and overall positive assessments from Gemini and ChatGPT, the review highlights his ability to accurately forecast future developments. The analysis provides valuable insights into the key drivers shaping the current landscape and offers a foundation for informed decision-making in 2026. He concludes by promoting his upcoming 2026 predictions and consulting services.