Indirect talks between US and Iran over its nuclear program end. So what happens next? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Nuclear Negotiations: Indirect talks between the US and Iran regarding Iran’s nuclear program, aiming for a deal to limit its development in exchange for sanctions relief.
• Red Lines: Specific conditions set by the US (under Trump) that Iran must meet to avoid military action.
• Verification: Iran’s willingness to allow international inspection to confirm it is not developing nuclear weapons.
• Sanctions Relief: Iran’s demand for the lifting of economic sanctions as a condition for any nuclear deal.
• Military Buildup: Increased US military presence in the Middle East, including aircraft carrier strike groups, as a show of force and deterrent.
• Anti-Regime Protests: Ongoing demonstrations within Iran against the Islamic Republic, fueled by economic hardship and political repression.
• Diaspora Support: The role of Iranian expatriates in amplifying protests and advocating for change.
• Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD): A US think tank providing analysis on Iran’s policies and regional influence.
• IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency, responsible for verifying Iran’s compliance with nuclear agreements.

US-Iran Nuclear Talks & Regional Tensions

The latest round of indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Geneva were described by US Vice President JD Vance as “going well in some ways,” despite failing to produce an agreement. A key sticking point remains Iran’s refusal to acknowledge “red lines” established by President Trump, who has threatened military action if Iran does not agree to a nuclear deal. Iran’s President Masud Peshkan stated his government is open to verification of its non-proliferation intentions but insists on maintaining some level of nuclear capability.

Military Posturing & Deterrence

Both sides are demonstrating military strength. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards conducted naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz, perceived as a message to Washington. The US has responded by deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln to the coast of Oman, with another aircraft carrier strike group en route to the Middle East. Iran’s Supreme Leader warned that while warships are dangerous, “more dangerous than that is a weapon that can send a warship deep under the sea,” implicitly referencing Iran’s missile capabilities. This escalation is occurring concurrently with the nuclear negotiations, creating a tense environment.

Negotiation Progress & Obstacles

Despite the tensions, Iranian Foreign Minister indicated “good progress” in the negotiations, stating that a “clear picture” of necessary steps has emerged, guided by a set of “guiding principles.” However, significant differences remain, and both sides maintain positions that require further negotiation. Iran insists on “relief from crippling sanctions” as a prerequisite for any concessions regarding its nuclear program.

Domestic Unrest in Iran & Impact on Negotiations

The situation within Iran is complicated by widespread discontent and ongoing protests against the Islamic Republic. Ordinary Iranians express a desire to avoid war, but also harbor reservations about a deal that could strengthen the current regime. A significant majority of Iranians reportedly oppose a “dirty deal” that would provide sanctions relief to the government, fearing it would be used to reinforce its power and regional influence. Protests continue, marked by 40-day mourning periods for those killed during earlier crackdowns, with demonstrations occurring even amidst security force presence. Videos circulating on social media show gatherings and anti-regime slogans like “Data Kam” (meaning “death to the oppressor”).

Expert Analysis: Benam Ben Taliblau (FDD)

Benam Ben Taliblau, Senior Director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, highlighted the potential for continued protests, noting that mourning ceremonies provide opportunities for dissent. He emphasized the divide between the state and society in Iran, with protesters referring to the deceased as “eternal names” (ja nams) rather than “martyrs.” Taliblau also underscored the critical role of the Iranian diaspora in amplifying the voices of those inside Iran and advocating for international support. He believes the regime is attempting to use negotiations with the US to discourage further protests, referencing President Trump’s previous promises of support to the Iranian people. He characterized the regime’s actions as a “war against society” citing reports of brutality during the crackdown on protests, including killings in hospitals and summary executions.

Broader Regional Context & Israel’s Position

William Alberg, a former NATO official, suggested that some progress may be occurring in the talks, citing Iran’s discussion of verification with the IAEA. However, he also noted Iran’s continued development of its nuclear program, including potentially a new enrichment facility. Alberg believes the US holds a stronger position, having demonstrated its ability to penetrate Iranian defenses in a previous strike. He suggested that Israel’s recent meeting with President Trump may have been to establish conditions for a potential military response if negotiations fail. He emphasized that a long-term solution requires addressing the underlying causes of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, including its regional ambitions and support for non-state actors. He believes a nuclear program halt is a good first step, but broader regional peace is ultimately necessary.

Notable Quotes

• JD Vance (US Vice President): “The latest round of indirect nuclear talks with Iran…went well in some ways even though they ended without agreement.”
• Masud Peshkan (Iran’s President): “My government is open to verification that [we are] not seeking to develop a nuclear weapon, but…it will never completely abandon its nuclear program.”
• Benam Ben Taliblau (FDD): “The regime is at war with society inside Iran.”
• William Alberg (Former NATO Official): “Iran is the one that really has to make a deal if it doesn't want to see another attack.”

Technical Terms

• Downblending: The process of reducing the concentration of fissile material (like highly enriched uranium) to make it unsuitable for weapons production.
• Centrifuge: A device used to enrich uranium by separating uranium-235 from uranium-238.
• IAEA Safeguards Agreement: An agreement between a state and the IAEA to verify the peaceful use of nuclear materials.
• Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU): Uranium enriched to a level of 20% or more uranium-235, suitable for use in nuclear weapons.
• Low Enriched Uranium (LEU): Uranium enriched to a level of less than 20% uranium-235, typically used in nuclear power plants.

Synthesis & Conclusion

The situation surrounding Iran’s nuclear program remains highly volatile. While indirect negotiations are ongoing, significant obstacles persist, including Iran’s insistence on sanctions relief and its unwillingness to fully abandon its nuclear ambitions. The escalating military posturing by both sides, coupled with domestic unrest within Iran, adds to the complexity. The US appears to be in a stronger position, but a lasting solution requires addressing the broader regional context and addressing the underlying causes of Iran’s insecurity. The outcome of these negotiations will have profound implications for regional stability and global security. The internal dynamics within Iran, particularly the ongoing protests and the diaspora’s influence, are increasingly important factors that could shape the trajectory of the talks.