Narcos, trade, and migration: how Mexico’s president navigates a hostile US | DW News Desk

Key Concepts:

• Mexico's economy and global ranking
• US-Mexico relations: trade, narcos, migration
• Claudia Sheinbaum's presidency: domestic and foreign policy
• USMCA (NAFTA 2.0)
• Mexico's relationship with China and the EU
• Mexico's internal challenges: corruption, economic growth, poverty
• "Plan Mexico" - diversification of trade partners
• "Cool heads" policy - Sheinbaum's approach to US relations

1. Introduction and Overview

• Newsesk hosts Melissa Chan and Bes Benji introduce a discussion on Mexico, highlighting its status as Latin America's second-largest and the world's 15th-largest economy.
• The focus is on how President Claudia Sheinbaum navigates relations with the US, addressing narcos, trade, and migration, as well as domestic challenges.
• Guests include Siraen Viamar, a Mexican policy analyst based in Berlin, and Alex Gonzalez Orme, publisher of the Mexico Political Economist. Jared Reed manages social media engagement and presents a poll.

2. Initial Comments and Poll Question

• Viewers' comments reflect diverse opinions on Sheinbaum's leadership, Mexico's challenges, and US-Mexico relations.
• The poll question asks viewers to identify Mexico's most pressing challenge: Donald Trump's trade policies, drugs and organized crime, corruption, or poverty reduction.

3. US-Mexico Relations and the "Invasion" Narrative

• Alex Gonzalez Orme emphasizes the importance of the US-Mexico bilateral relationship, noting that it often works seamlessly despite potential conflicts.
• The discussion addresses the narrative of a potential US invasion of Mexico, dismissing it as unlikely.
• Siraen Viamar uses the analogy of states as people, suggesting that aggressive rhetoric doesn't necessarily translate into action.
• Sheinbaum's quote: "Mexico is not subordinate to anyone. We are a free, sovereign, and independent nation... We are nobody's piñata," underscores Mexico's stance on equality and sovereignty.

4. Trade, Drugs, and Border Issues

• The US has raised concerns about trade imbalances, drug flow, and border security.
• Mexico also has grievances, particularly regarding the flow of weapons from the US to cartels.
• Mexico sued American arms companies to underscore the importance of this issue.
• Alex notes that the US government has recognized the co-responsibility in the drug issue, acknowledging the US role in providing the market and arms.
• Sheinbaum has arrested more drug cartel members than her predecessor, AMLO (Andrés Manuel López Obrador), indicating a shift in strategy.
• Alex explains that Sheinbaum's approach is intelligence-based, targeting sources of money and taking a holistic approach rather than solely focusing on violence.
• Siraen mentions that Mexico has extradited 55 criminals to the US this year, demonstrating cooperation.

5. Trump's Approach and Cooperation

• Trump's administration has combined all issues in negotiations, giving Mexico more leverage.
• Mexico's control of migration and cooperation on criminal extradition are valuable assets in negotiations.
• Trump's quote: "I spoke to the president of Mexico, wonderful woman, today... Also, we discussed drugs and they've been working much harder lately," reflects a more conciliatory tone.
• Alex suggests that Trump's pressure helps the Mexican government do politically sensitive things.

6. Border Security and Tariffs

• Mexico has deployed 10,000 National Guards to the border, partly due to US pressure.
• Alex notes that this is politically convenient for both Trump and Sheinbaum.
• The worst-case scenario for tariffs is that the US starts imposing or increasing them, which would have huge costs for both countries.
• Over 80% of Mexico's exports go to the US, while US exports to Mexico represent about 16% of all its exports.
• Mexico is the biggest single exporter to the United States, ahead of China.
• Alex explains that trade from Mexico to the US is complementary, making US industry competitive. Tariffs on Mexican goods would harm US industry.

7. Diversification and Canada-Mexico Relations

• A viewer asks if Mexico's priority should be to reduce export dependence on the US market.
• Siraen mentions "Plan Mexico," which aims to diversify trade partners and strengthen the internal market.
• Sheinbaum met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, signaling a potential strategy to mitigate instability from the US.
• Alex notes that Mexico invited Canada to join NAFTA to counterbalance the US.
• Mexico only exports about 3% of its exports to Canada, indicating a dependency on the US.
• The Canada-Mexico talks are about industrial policy and states driving trade flows in artificial ways to diversify.

8. Mexico and China

• China looms large in the imaginations of Americans, with theories about Mexico being a backdoor for Chinese drugs and goods.
• Alex argues that this is untrue for trade and a trilateral problem for drugs.
• Mexico has done well at staving off Chinese influence, given China's size.
• Mexico has slapped tariffs on clothes and shoes from China to protect its industry.
• Siraen adds that the global power shift between the US and China is a factor, with Mexico trying to play its cards carefully.
• Alex explains that China's internal growth has stalled, leading to the exportation of subsidized products, which is a disaster for local manufacturing.
• Mexico canceled a BYD factory because it would be an assembly factory with all parts imported from China, undercutting the auto industry.

9. Mexico and the EU

• Mexico has a free trade agreement with the EU, but trade is much smaller compared to the US.
• Germany is Mexico's main trade partner in the EU.
• Mexico has a surplus with the US but a deficit with Germany.
• Mexico and the EU have finished negotiations to update their free trade agreement.
• Siraen notes that there is a greater urgency from both sides to diversify their dependence away from the United States.
• Alex points out that even increased pork exports to the EU depend on feed imports from the US, highlighting the interconnectedness of the global economy.

10. Domestic Challenges and Sheinbaum's Approval Ratings

• The discussion shifts to Mexico's domestic challenges.
• Sheinbaum's approval ratings are very high, ranging from 70% to 79% in various polls.
• The biggest accomplishment seen during her presidency is social assistance to the poor and marginalized.
• Siraen believes that being the first female president has a huge impact.
• Alex argues that the focus on material issues, such as the cost of living crisis and poverty, is what keeps Sheinbaum high in the polls.
• The doubling of the minimum wage is a key factor.

11. Criticisms and Potential Mistakes

• Alex notes that the Morena government has a supermajority and no real opposition, leading to a lack of debate and sensible criticisms.
• He mentions the surveillance state as an example where the government may be sacrificing freedom for security.
• Karolina Vena asks if Sheinbaum is the female version of Duterte, which Melissa rejects.
• Siraen points out that Mexico's economic growth is a major issue, with the IMF projecting only 1% GDP growth this year.
• Alex explains that "Plan Mexico" includes import substitution and self-sustainability.
• The government has agreements to cap prices of oil and gas and is rolling in to start their own factories to assure that the private sector isn't the only option on the table.
• Alex believes that Sheinbaum's biggest mistake is making deals with terrible people to win elections, leading to corruption.
• Americans have blocked some Morina government officials from entering the US due to suspicions of working with drug cartels.
• Siraen adds that national political alliances at the municipal and state levels are problematic.

12. Poll Results and Final Thoughts

• The poll results show that the audience believes drugs and organized crime are Mexico's most pressing challenge, followed by a tie between Donald Trump's trade policies and corruption.
• Siraen encourages viewers to learn more about Mexico and discuss what is happening.
• Alex emphasizes the importance of understanding Mexican politics and the role it plays in the global economy.

13. Conclusion

• The discussion concludes with thanks to the guests and viewers, highlighting the informative and engaging nature of the conversation.
• The hosts announce that they will be back next week with a new theme.