Morning Markets for Monday, November 18, 2025

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript, maintaining the original language and technical precision:

Key Concepts

• Activist Investing: Hedge funds or investors taking significant stakes in companies to influence management and drive changes.
• Strategic Review: A process undertaken by a company to explore various options, including potential sale or restructuring.
• Earnings Guidance: A company's forecast of its future financial performance.
• Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples: Sectors representing non-essential goods/services versus essential goods/services, respectively.
• Risk-Off Stance: An investment approach characterized by a preference for safer assets and a reduction in exposure to riskier investments.
• Momentum Trade: An investment strategy that involves buying assets that have been performing well and selling those that have been performing poorly.
• Valuation: The process of determining the current worth of an asset or company.
• Productivity: The efficiency with which an economy produces goods and services.
• Multiplier Effect: The concept that an initial injection of spending into an economy leads to a larger overall increase in economic activity.
• Energy Sovereignty: A nation's ability to control its own energy resources and supply.
• Float: In insurance, the money an insurance company receives from premiums that it holds before paying out claims.
• Holding Company: A company that owns a controlling interest in the securities of other companies.
• Technical Analysis: A trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunities by analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume.
• No Buy Zone: A period where an investment strategy dictates refraining from initiating new positions.

Market Movers and Company Updates

Barrick Mining

• Main Topic: Elliott Management reportedly building a stake in Barrick Mining.
• Key Points:
  • The Financial Times reported Elliott Management has built a stake valued at at least $700 million USD.
  • Elliott Management is an American hedge fund and activist investor known for forcing major changes.
  • Barrick Mining has struggled to capitalize on the recent gold rally, attributed to issues at its international assets.
  • Barrick's CEO, Mark Bristow, stepped down in September due to disagreements over the company's direction.
  • Gold production has declined: 3.9 million ounces in 2020 compared to 5.4 million ounces in 2019.
  • Elliott's stake would place it among Barrick's top ten largest investors.
  • There are reports Barrick is considering splitting into two entities: one in North America and another in Africa and Asia.
  • Barrick discovered the Four Mile project in Nevada, considered one of the most significant gold discoveries of the century, potentially yielding 750,000 ounces of gold per year and is 100% owned by Barrick.
  • Barrick stock has surged 138% year-to-date, likely due to the Nevada discovery.
• Market Reaction: Barrick shares were up 0.6% at the time of reporting. The news had not significantly moved the needle due to lack of confirmation. Barrick provided a "no comment."

MTY Food Group

• Main Topic: MTY Food Group initiating a strategic review.
• Key Points:
  • The restaurant franchisor and operator is exploring options, including a partial or entire sale of the company.
  • There is no assurance a transaction will occur.
  • MTY owns brands such as Mr. Sub, Baton Rouge, Extreme Pizza, and Thai Express.
• Market Reaction: Shares were down 4.44%.

Home Depot

• Main Topic: Home Depot cutting full-year earnings guidance and reporting disappointing results.
• Key Points:
  • The home improvement retailer cut its full-year earnings guidance.
  • Cited ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure on the housing sector impacting demand.
  • Reported lower than expected profit and sales, specifically a lack of demand for big-ticket items like roofing and generators.
  • The company expects EPS declines of about 6% for the full year 2026, higher than previously anticipated.
• Market Reaction: Shares were trading lower, down about 4.3%. This news also weighed on other retailers.

NVIDIA

• Main Topic: Expectations for NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report.
• Key Points:
  • Analyst Angelo Zino expects at least $1 billion more than the street is expecting in revenue, forecasting $55.8 billion.
  • Earnings are expected to be $1.29 per share versus the street's $1.25.
  • Good guidance is expected for the January quarter, with potential revenues of at least $61 billion and earnings of $1.42 per share.
  • Positive tone expected from CEO Jensen Huang, referencing recent hyperscaler comments and a $500 billion backlog cited at the recent GTC.
• Argument/Perspective: Strong NVIDIA earnings could provide support for the tech sector's slide.
• Data: Expected revenue of $55.8 billion (street $54.8 billion), EPS $1.29 (street $1.25). January quarter: revenue $61 billion, EPS $1.42.

Walmart

• Main Topic: Expectations for Walmart's earnings report.
• Key Points:
  • Walmart is in the consumer staples category.
  • Positive movement in earnings is expected, up about 4% year-on-year.
  • Forecasted earnings of $0.60 per share versus $0.58 last year.
• Argument/Perspective: Solid numbers from staples like Walmart could offer guidance to investors rotating into defensive areas.

Freeport-McMoRan

• Main Topic: Update on operations following a mudslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
• Key Points:
  • The company plans a phased restart of operations starting in the second quarter of 2026.
  • Updated production guidance for gold and copper from the mine.
  • Production guidance for 2027-2029 is expected to be about a 5% reduction in copper production compared to pre-incident expectations.
  • The 2026 guidance came in slightly lower than expected.
• Argument/Perspective: Analysts see this as positive, providing certainty and de-risking. The reduction in production might help global copper prices due to supply constraints.
• Market Reaction: Shares were up.

Murphy Oil

• Main Topic: Recommendation cut and outlook for gas stocks.
• Key Points:
  • Recommendation cut to Neutral rating by Piper Sandler.
  • Gas stocks have seen recovery since US tariffs were imposed in April, but Piper Sandler warns they may have gone too far.
  • Concerns about gas supply constraints have pushed the market and gas prices.
  • Analysts anticipate gas storage normalizing into winter 2026 and 2027, potentially reducing company returns.
  • Murphy Oil has outperformed peers but has not returned as much to shareholders as expected and faces higher exploration costs next year.
• Market Reaction: Recommendation cut.

Cloudflare

• Main Topic: Global network outage impacting websites.
• Key Points:
  • The software company experienced a global network outage.
  • The issue has been fully resolved and was caused by a crash in a software system.
  • Websites including ChatGPT, Spotify, and X (formerly Twitter) were affected.
  • Cloudflare stated there is no evidence of an attack or malicious activity.
• Market Reaction: Shares saw a decline of about 1.86%.

Denison Mining and Skyharbour Resources

• Main Topic: Denison Mining's acquisition of Skyharbour Resources for its uranium project.
• Key Points:
  • Denison is acquiring an interest in newly created joint ventures (JVs) with Skyharbour, stemming from the Russell Lake property.
  • Skyharbour recently consolidated full ownership of Russell Lake from Rio Tinto.
  • There will be four different JVs with Skyharbour.
  • Denison is purchasing an initial interest and has an option to deploy significant exploration spending on two of the JVs to increase its interest up to 70%.
  • The Russell Lake JVs are adjacent to Denison's flagship Wheeler River property.
  • Denison is close to federal and provincial permits for its Phoenix Project and expects an investment decision in early 2026, aiming to be one of Canada's newest mines.
• Argument/Perspective: The acquisition fits Denison's long-term strategy beyond its immediate development project. The JV structure aims to maximize attention and discovery potential across the large land package.
• Uranium Sector Outlook: Sentiment is highly positive due to global nuclear energy deployment, driven by clean energy and energy sovereignty. Supply is vulnerable due to a long period of low prices, with few top-tier projects in the pipeline. Denison's Phoenix Project has the potential to be one of the lowest-cost uranium mines globally.

Prem Watsa and Fairfax Financial

• Main Topic: The business philosophy and success of Prem Watsa and Fairfax Financial.
• Key Points:
  • Fairfax Financial celebrated its 40th year as a public company.
  • Achieved a 21% compound annual return by the end of December, compared to 11% for the S&P and 8% for the Canadian market.
  • Watsa is described as a combination of Warren Buffett and Howard Hughes.
  • Fairfax operates as a decentralized holding company, with insurance companies as a core engine, leveraging "float" for investment.
  • Watsa's model is global, unlike Buffett's historical US focus.
  • Fairfax experienced a period of controversy in the late 1990s and 2000s due to acquiring underperforming companies and underestimating the "long tail" of liabilities (e.g., asbestos).
  • Watsa's philosophy emphasizes fixing and polishing assets rather than writing them off or laying off staff.
  • Fairfax made outstanding bearish calls, notably profiting from The Big Short and the Great Financial Crisis.
  • The company lost billions over years on hedges and shorts, leading to a shift towards investing in itself.
  • Watsa is noted for owning his mistakes, with detailed explanations of what went wrong in his letters to shareholders.
• Argument/Perspective: Watsa's long-term vision, disciplined approach to risk management, and willingness to admit errors have been crucial to Fairfax's success.

Market Analysis and Investor Sentiment

Sam Stovall (CFRA Research)

• Main Topic: Market outlook and reasons for confidence.
• Key Points:
  • Current market movements are considered short-term.
  • A 11.5% advance over a four-month period following a 19% decline is typical post-recovery behavior.
  • A potential 5% decline is not seen as a major concern and could serve as a "jumping board" into December.
  • Reason for Confidence:
    • Anticipates employment data on Thursday will indicate the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December.
    • NVIDIA's earnings report is expected to be stronger than anticipated.
  • Historical Data:
    • November is the best month of the year, and December is the third best.
    • A negative November typically improves the performance of follow-up months in terms of price change and frequency of advance.
• Argument/Perspective: The market is experiencing a healthy correction, and upcoming economic data and corporate earnings (especially NVIDIA) could provide a catalyst for a rebound.

Leslie Marks (Mackenzie Investments)

• Main Topic: Cracks in momentum trades (AI, Gold) and investor sentiment.
• Key Points:
  • The negative sentiment around AI has emerged quickly after a period of strong upward movement.
  • The current pullback is considered healthy and a correction.
  • The S&P 500 is only down 3.5%, but many "darling" AI stocks are down more than 10% or 20%.
  • This is attributed to the narrowness of price appreciation in equities, driven by a few key themes.
  • Gold has traded similarly to stocks leveraged to AI and Bitcoin, indicating a narrowness in market themes.
  • The common thread has been retail interest, which has declined, taking the "froth" out of these markets.
  • Expects stocks and commodities to eventually trade on fundamentals rather than momentum.
  • Investment Advisors/Planners: Many clients are asking why their portfolios aren't matching the NASDAQ's performance. Chasing big returns has led to a detachment of valuation from fundamentals.
  • Focus on Goals: Investors and advisors should focus on achieving portfolio goals rather than maximizing returns.
• Argument/Perspective: The market is undergoing a necessary correction driven by a shift away from speculative momentum trades towards fundamentals.

Canadian Economy and Bank of Canada

• Main Topic: Government budget and Bank of Canada's impact.
• Key Points:
  • The Canadian budget is seen as not decisive, with limited spending cuts but spending on infrastructure.
  • The intention is to focus on capital and infrastructure spending to drive the multiplier effect.
  • This aims to offset a shrinking government and improve productivity, which has been a sore spot for Canada due to a lack of investment.
  • The Bank of Canada's decisions are more important for the average Canadian's housing market than for overall sentiment.
  • High short-term interest rates have led to low activity and pain in the housing market.
  • Stability in the housing market is crucial for the average Canadian.
  • More housing transactions are being seen, but prices are still on a downtrend.
• Argument/Perspective: Infrastructure spending is the right focus, but action is needed. The Bank of Canada's role in stabilizing the housing market is critical.

Diana Avigdor (Barometer Capital Management)

• Main Topic: Market tantrum, debt in tech, and risk management.
• Key Points:
  • The market is having a "tantrum" with a "pile on of negativity."
  • Breadth has been deteriorating, leading to a "no buy zone" for their tactical active strategy.
  • Tech companies are raising debt, with demand for it being multiple times covered (e.g., Amazon).
  • AI capital expenditures are projected to soar towards $3 trillion USD over the next five years.
  • Concerns about a potential "cockroach" effect from a sour investment reported by JP Morgan.
  • Japanese bond yields moving up are a trigger for fear, potentially sucking money out of North American markets, though US Treasury buying is also occurring.
  • The firm is coming into the day with about 20% cash due to deteriorating breadth.
  • They have taken profits in gold and Celestica, managing positions based on market pricing.
  • Risk management is paramount over return in the current environment.
  • NVIDIA earnings are a key event; if they legitimize AI fears, the firm will re-engage.
  • Recent economic data (ADP, jobless claims, Canadian unemployment at 2.2%) has been benign, suggesting a healthy check back.
• Argument/Perspective: The current market downturn is a healthy correction driven by a combination of factors, and a disciplined risk-off approach is warranted for short-term traders. Long-term investors should maintain their strategies.

Colin Cieszynski (SIA Wealth Management)

• Main Topic: Market overview and technical analysis.
• Key Points:
  • The TSX is down, having fallen below 30,000 after hitting record highs.
  • Winners: Whitecap Resources, Superior Plus.
  • Losers: Telus, Capstone Copper.
  • US markets are also experiencing a difficult day, with disappointing earnings from Home Depot and Lowe's.
  • Home Depot is up 3.45% despite reporting disappointing earnings.
  • Lowe's is down 1.29%.
  • Cap is up 2.52% on good news.
• Market Reaction: Another red day for the TSX and US markets.

Conclusion/Synthesis

The market is currently experiencing a period of correction and increased volatility, driven by concerns over AI valuations, consumer uncertainty, and a shift away from momentum-driven trades. While some sectors like technology and consumer discretionary are facing pressure, defensive sectors and commodities like gold are being watched. Upcoming economic data and corporate earnings, particularly from NVIDIA, are expected to be key catalysts. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and long-term goals, with a cautious approach to initiating new positions in the short term. The Canadian economy's focus on infrastructure spending and the Bank of Canada's role in stabilizing the housing market are also significant factors. The uranium sector, however, shows strong optimism due to global demand for nuclear energy. The transcript also highlights the enduring success of companies like Fairfax Financial, built on disciplined investment strategies and a willingness to adapt.