Middle East analyst: 'I don't think it is the end of Israel's war in Gaza'

Key Concepts

• Humanitarian Catastrophe: Widespread human suffering, loss of life, and destruction of infrastructure in Gaza.
• Ethnic Cleansing: The systematic forced removal of ethnic or religious groups from a given territory, as perceived by some in Gaza.
• Buffer Zone: A neutral area established to separate hostile forces or nations, proposed by Israel in Gaza.
• Palestinian Authority (PA): The interim self-government body intended to govern Palestinian territories.
• Self-determination: The right of a people to determine their own political status and form their own government without external interference.
• Reckoning Moment: A critical juncture where past actions or realities must be confronted and addressed.
• 21 Points (Trump's Plan): A proposed framework for peace, described as "littered with minefields" due to inherent complexities and disagreements.

---

Initial Reactions from Gaza: Joy and Relief Amidst Suffering

Residents in Gaza expressed overwhelming joy and relief upon hearing news of a potential agreement, describing it as a "joy to be recorded in history" and a "day of relief from God." They have endured two years of war, suffering, and displacement, with many having been displaced multiple times. The immediate sentiment is one of disbelief and happiness, coupled with an urgent desire for the news to be implemented to end the war, suffering, and perceived ethnic cleansing.

Expert Analysis: A Moment of Hope, Yet Complex and Dangerous

Favas Gerggas, a Professor of Middle Eastern Politics and International Relations at the London School of Economics, characterized this moment as one of hope and joy for 2.2 million Palestinians and the families of hostages held for over two years. He views it as "the beginning of the end of the humanitarian catastrophe" in Gaza, highlighting the "unbearable, unimaginable" human loss.

Specific Details of the Catastrophe:

• 90% of Gaza's infrastructure has been destroyed.
• 200,000 tons of explosives have been dropped by Israel on Gaza.
• 2,000 children have been killed.

Despite the immediate relief, Gerggas cautioned that "what comes next is extremely complex and extremely dangerous."

Skepticism Regarding the War's End and Sticking Points

Gerggas expressed skepticism that this agreement marks "the end of Israel's war in Gaza," but rather "the end of all out war," suggesting a next, more nuanced phase. He described President Trump's "21 points" plan as "littered with minefields."

Key Sticking Points and Disagreements:

• Israeli Troop Withdrawal: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated he will "never pull out all Israeli forces from Gaza" and intends to establish a buffer zone.
• Interpretation of the Agreement: Hamas believes the agreement "stipulates the end of the war," while the Americans and Israelis view it as "the first phase of the war."
• Hostage/Prisoner Exchange: The first phase involves the release of all 48 hostages in exchange for 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and captives.
• Hamas Disarmament: Gerggas doubts Hamas will disarm.
• Post-War Governance of Gaza: Hamas and other Palestinian groups advocate for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to be in charge. However, President Trump and Israel insist on a "board of peace" primarily composed of foreigners, sidelining the PA.

Gerggas noted that "the Middle East has been a graveyard for political optimism," and many things could go wrong, particularly questioning President Trump's "attention span" to follow through beyond the initial hostage exchange.

The Role of Regional Powers and Guarantees

The involvement of pivotal regional powers—Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and now the United States—is seen as a crucial development. This involvement provides guarantees, limiting Prime Minister Netanyahu's "wiggle room" to violate the ceasefire, despite potential pressure from his extremist coalition members. The Israeli cabinet meeting to approve the deal is considered very important.

Gerggas anticipates a "gradual phasing of the Israeli war and the beginning of a new authority," likely involving Arab states, the Palestinian Authority, and the Americans in the aftermath.

Pressure on Hamas and the Imperative of Palestinian Self-Determination

Hamas has faced "tremendous pressure" not only from American and Israeli military campaigns but also from Arab states like Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt. Hamas sought guarantees from Turkey and Qatar, which may have been received, as evidenced by the Qatari prime minister's statement that the first phase means the end of the war. Hamas has also suffered significant losses and is aware of the humanitarian catastrophe, with some Palestinians being critical of the group.

Gerggas emphasized that the Israeli government "will have to come to terms with Palestinian self-determination." Despite the overwhelming majority of Israeli politicians opposing a Palestinian state, the international reality is changing:

• 157 out of 193 United Nations member states have recognized Palestine as a state.

This creates a "reckoning moment" for Israel to recognize basic Palestinian rights, including the right to self-determination.

Conclusion: Path to Lasting Peace

Favas Gerggas concluded that regardless of immediate developments, "without recognizing the basic rights of the Palestinians, without allowing the Palestinians the right for self-determinations, without reconciliations, genuine reconciliation between Israel and Palestine, you'll never have lasting peace in the region." This, he asserted, is the fundamental lesson learned since 1947.