Macro Measure - January 9, 2026

Market Rebellion Macro Measure & Sector Situation - January 9th, 2026

Key Concepts:

• Inverted Head and Shoulders/Ascending Triangle: Bullish chart patterns suggesting potential price increases.
• Momentum Trading: Focusing on stocks exhibiting strong price trends.
• Wall of Worry: The idea that market rallies can occur despite prevailing negative news.
• Charcoal Swans: Unforeseen, potentially impactful events not widely discussed.
• IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF): A benchmark for small-cap stocks, often indicating broader market health.
• XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund): An ETF tracking the materials sector, used as an economic indicator.
• Megas: Large-cap technology stocks (e.g., Apple, Microsoft) with significant market influence.
• Synchronous Easing: Coordinated monetary policy easing by global central banks.
• Uber DDA (Discipline Dictates Action): A trading philosophy emphasizing strict adherence to a trading plan.
• Delta (Options): A measure of an option's sensitivity to changes in the underlying asset's price.

I. Market Overview & Initial Sentiment (January 2026)

The market is starting 2026 with a positive trajectory, despite lingering concerns about potential geopolitical and domestic news events. While charts suggest bullish potential – specifically inverted head and shoulders and ascending triangle patterns – the speaker (Wayne) expresses caution due to an unpredictable news cycle. The fourth quarter of 2025 was described as “boring” in terms of trading, but the first full week of January shows improved momentum, particularly in momentum-based names. The Venezuelan news event passed without significant market disruption, reinforcing the potential for a continued rally.

II. Technical Analysis & Chart Patterns

Several technical indicators support a bullish outlook:

• Chart Patterns: Both inverted head and shoulders and ascending triangle patterns are present, projecting upward price movement.
• IWM & XLB: The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) are showing positive signs, potentially indicating broader market strength. XLB may have reached a new all-time high.
• Sector Performance: Most sectors are performing positively, with the exception of the “megas” (large-cap tech stocks).
• Advance-Decline Line: The advance-decline line and cumulative volume index are trending upwards, suggesting broad market participation.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) RSI is currently around 63, indicating the market isn't overbought and has room to run.

III. Concerns & Potential Risks ("Charcoal Swans")

Despite the positive technical picture, significant risks are identified:

• News Cycle: The primary concern is the potential for disruptive news events, both domestically and internationally.
• US Military Involvement: Potential US military intervention in Mexico against cartels, and potentially in Colombia and Cuba, is a major source of uncertainty.
• Unforeseen Events ("Charcoal Swans"): The speaker acknowledges the existence of other, less-publicized risks that could impact the market.
• Precious Metals Demand: The unusual and sustained demand for precious metals is seen as a potential warning sign of underlying economic or geopolitical anxieties.
• Mega-Cap Performance: The inconsistent performance of mega-cap technology stocks could derail the rally if they don't participate.

IV. Economic Factors & Supporting Data

Several economic factors are contributing to the positive outlook:

• Synchronous Easing: Expectations of coordinated monetary policy easing globally.
• Falling Rates: Mortgage rates are at a three-year low, historically a positive sign for the economy.
• GDP Growth: The Atlanta Fed is projecting strong GDP growth.
• Corporate Efficiency: Companies are reportedly leveraging technology to improve bottom lines after a period of lean years.
• Housing Market: Housing is considered a crucial component of the economy (approximately 70% dependent on it).

V. Trading Strategy & Recommendations

The speaker advocates a cautious yet opportunistic approach:

• Discipline (Uber DDA): Emphasizes the importance of strict discipline and adherence to a trading plan.
• Quick Profit Taking: Recommends rolling profits quickly, rather than waiting for maximum gains, due to the volatile environment.
• Momentum Focus: Continues to specialize in momentum trading, with Ryan handling more conservative, premium collection strategies.
• Alerts & Monitoring: Setting alerts for potential breakout stocks and monitoring news developments closely.
• Delta Management: Adjusting option positions (delta) based on market movements to lock in profits.
• Cautious Optimism: While bullish on the market's potential, the speaker remains wary of the news cycle and potential for a sudden reversal.

VI. Specific Stock Examples & Observations

• AS: A stock exhibiting strong momentum and positive price action.
• AMD: A bearish trade successfully executed based on technical analysis.
• Netflix (NFLX): A potential bottom-fishing opportunity due to significant call buying ahead of earnings.
• IWM: Breaking out to new all-time highs, signaling potential broader market strength.
• SPY: Showing positive momentum and a bullish chart pattern.

VII. Concluding Remarks & Outlook

The market is currently exhibiting positive momentum and strong technical indicators, but the potential for disruptive news events remains a significant concern. The speaker believes the market could continue to rally, particularly if mega-cap stocks join the upward trend. However, he stresses the importance of discipline, quick profit-taking, and constant vigilance. The second year of a presidential term is historically volatile, adding to the uncertainty. Overall, the outlook is cautiously optimistic, with a strong emphasis on risk management.

Notable Quote:

“I don't recall too many times where things look so awesome and yet there was so much pending news that could develop.” – Wayne, highlighting the current market dichotomy.