Macro Measure - January 23, 2026

Market Rebellion Macro Measure & Sector Situation – January 23rd, 2026 Summary

Key Concepts:

• Twixed In Between: The current market state – exhibiting conflicting signals, lacking a clear directional bias.
• Defcon Shields Up: A cautionary stance, advocating for risk management and hedging due to market uncertainty.
• Paper vs. Physical (Metals): Discrepancy between paper trading volume and actual physical metal availability, impacting silver and gold prices.
• Permabulls/Permabears: Extreme bullish or bearish market outlooks, contrasted with a flexible, flow-following approach.
• Breadth: The degree to which a market move is supported by participation across a wide range of stocks.
• Catalysts: Events or factors that can drive market movements (e.g., earnings reports, geopolitical events).

I. Market Overview & Initial Conditions

The market experienced a volatile week following initial weakness over the weekend. Early week selling, potentially triggered by the Greenland story (dismissed by the speaker as a cover), was followed by a rebound fueled by dip buying and the resolution of the Greenland issue. However, the market ultimately ended the week in a “twixed in between” state, with conflicting signals and a lack of clear direction. The speaker emphasizes the importance of maintaining “Defcon shields up” – a cautious approach to risk management – given the underlying uncertainties. The CME’s limited physical silver delivery capacity is highlighted as a potential driver of the extraordinary silver price surge, a phenomenon observed previously by Market Rebellion.

II. Technical Analysis – SPY & Key Levels

The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) is currently testing a critical level around 68970, which has acted as support and resistance in late October, December, and early January. The speaker notes a “failed breakout/breakdown” pattern, with the SPY unable to decisively clear this level. Volume analysis suggests a lack of conviction, with declining volume on the recent rally. This creates a neutral scenario where the market could move in either direction. The speaker advocates for waiting for a decisive break above or below this level before taking a strong position.

III. Macroeconomic Factors & Global Influences

Several macroeconomic factors are contributing to the market’s uncertainty:

• Japan & FX Markets: Rising interest rates in Japan and unusual activity in the FX markets (specifically the USD/JPY pair) are identified as potential sources of instability. A significant drop in the dollar is noted.
• Dollar Weakness: The speaker expresses concern about a weakening dollar, preferring a strong currency for purchasing power. The DXY index experienced a notable decline.
• Metals Surge (Gold & Silver): An unprecedented surge in silver and gold prices is occurring, potentially driven by the limited physical availability of silver and speculation about counterparty risk within the financial system. The Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index has more than doubled since mid-2025.
• Geopolitical Risks & Weather: Geopolitical tensions and an approaching storm are cited as potential catalysts for market volatility.

IV. Sector Performance & Rotation

• Defensive Sectors: Increased investment in defensive sectors (XLP – Consumer Staples) suggests growing risk aversion.
• Financials (XLF): Financial earnings were mixed, and credit card factors are emerging as a concern.
• Energy (XLE): Energy prices are rising due to geopolitical factors and potential winter fuel demand.
• Industrials (XLI): Industrials are showing signs of weakness.
• Technology (XLK & XLC): Technology sectors showed initial weakness but recovered, but lack strong leadership.
• Materials (XLB): Basic Materials are outperforming, benefiting from the metals surge and increased investment.

V. Mega-Cap Stock Analysis (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla)

The speaker analyzes the performance of key mega-cap stocks ahead of their earnings reports:

• Apple (AAPL): Showing signs of stabilization, potentially poised for a rally after a significant sell-off.
• Amazon (AMZN): Bouncing back strongly, with positive momentum.
• Google (GOOGL): Generally positive trend, but with some RSI divergence.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Rallying ahead of earnings, with a potential breakout setup.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Showing strong momentum and a potential breakout, supported by positive RSI readings.
• Tesla (TSLA): Back above all SMAs, poised for a potential rally.

VI. Market Breadth & Investor Sentiment

Market breadth is showing some improvement, with a rebound in advancing issues. Public investors engaged in significant dip buying. CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) are heavily long the market. The speaker cautions against complacency and emphasizes the need for flexibility.

VII. Trading Strategy & Conclusion

The speaker advocates for a flexible, flow-following trading approach, avoiding rigid bullish or bearish biases. Given the current “twixed in between” market state, the recommendation is to avoid forcing trades and wait for a decisive breakout or breakdown from key levels. The speaker emphasizes the importance of discipline and risk management, acknowledging the potential for unexpected events (particularly related to geopolitical factors and the Trump administration). The overall outlook is cautiously optimistic, with a slight tilt towards bullishness if the market can overcome current resistance levels. The speaker highlights the importance of monitoring catalysts like earnings reports and macroeconomic data.

Notable Quotes:

• “You’ve got to call it like you see it.” – Emphasizing the need for honest market assessment.
• “I’m not a permabull, nor am I a perma bear… I’m willing to go with whatever the flow is.” – Highlighting a flexible trading approach.
• “The market has the final say.” – Acknowledging the ultimate authority of market forces.
• “You just don’t know what’s really happening behind the scenes when people like those that attend the Davos stuff are involved.” – Expressing skepticism about hidden influences.

Technical Terms:

• Defcon Shields Up: A risk management strategy involving hedging or reducing exposure.
• SMAs (Simple Moving Averages): A technical indicator used to smooth out price data and identify trends.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): A momentum oscillator used to identify overbought or oversold conditions.
• Breadth: The number of stocks participating in a market move.
• Catalyst: An event that triggers a market reaction.
• Paper Silver/Gold: Trading of contracts representing silver or gold without physical delivery.
• DXY: The U.S. Dollar Index, measuring the dollar's value against a basket of currencies.
• CME: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a major derivatives marketplace.

This summary aims to provide a detailed and specific account of the video transcript, preserving the original language and technical precision.