Israeli military strikes series of targets across Gaza | DW News

Key Concepts

• Fragile Ceasefire: A temporary suspension of hostilities that is easily broken.
• Truce Violations: Actions that break the terms of an agreed-upon ceasefire.
• Hostage Exchange: The trading of captured individuals between opposing sides.
• Prisoner Exchange: The trading of incarcerated individuals between opposing sides.
• Counter Extremism Project: An organization focused on combating extremist ideologies and groups.
• Hamas: A Palestinian Islamist fundamentalist organization that governs the Gaza Strip.
• IDF (Israel Defense Forces): The military forces of Israel.
• Rafa: A city in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Jabalia: A Palestinian refugee camp and town in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Clan-based Militias: Armed groups organized around family or tribal affiliations.
• Criminal Organizations: Groups involved in illegal activities.
• Mediation: The process of facilitating negotiations between disputing parties.
• Leverage: The ability to influence or control a situation.
• Terrorist Infrastructure: Facilities and systems used by terrorist organizations.
• Tunnel Shafts: Vertical openings into underground tunnels.
• Ceasefire Deal: An agreement to stop fighting.
• Far-right National Security Minister: A government official with extreme right-wing political views responsible for national security.

Ceasefire Under Pressure Amidst Accusations of Violations

The current ceasefire in Gaza is facing significant strain, with Israel accusing Hamas of breaching the truce. Israeli media reports indicate a halt to all aid deliveries into Gaza until further notice. The Israeli military has confirmed conducting numerous strikes across the territory, stating these actions are in response to attacks by Hamas militants on Israeli troops. Hamas, however, denies any involvement in clashes with Israeli soldiers. Health officials in Gaza report at least 19 fatalities resulting from Israeli airstrikes, which have impacted areas from Rafa in the south to Jabalia in the north.

Analysis of the Ceasefire Strategy and Hamas's Tactics

Hans Jakob Schindler, a Middle East analyst and senior director of the Counter Extremism Project, discussed the precarious nature of the ceasefire, which is approximately a week old. He characterized the situation as a "very difficult process" where the strategy involved agreeing on broad strokes initially, with detailed negotiations to follow in stages. The primary objective of the first stage was the exchange of hostages for prisoners.

Schindler highlighted Hamas's efforts to maintain power in Gaza, regardless of future developments. He stated that clashes and ceasefire violations from either side were an inherent risk that had to be accepted for the process to commence. This approach contrasts with previous detailed negotiations that failed or never materialized. The current strategy prioritizes broad agreements first, followed by detailed negotiations for subsequent stages.

Regarding the suspension of aid deliveries, Schindler suggested that if it is temporary, the impact might be minimal, given the substantial aid flow in recent days. However, a prolonged suspension could lead to renewed food shortages in Gaza.

Schindler also addressed the conflicting information surrounding strikes in Rafa. He deemed it "very, very, very unlikely" that groups other than Hamas were responsible for attacking IDF troops. He argued that smaller, less organized groups would not possess the resources or motivation to attack the IDF, especially since they are also targeted by Hamas. Schindler believes Hamas's denial is a propaganda tactic to portray themselves as victims and reverse the roles of aggressor and victim.

Internal Power Consolidation by Hamas

Schindler elaborated on the multiplicity of groups operating in Gaza beyond Hamas. He mentioned several smaller militias, including clan-based groups, some of which had reportedly received weapons from Israel to counter Hamas. However, these groups are not strong enough to resist Hamas. Additionally, criminal organizations have historically operated in Gaza. Schindler explained that Hamas views any armed entity other than itself as a potential threat. Consequently, Hamas is actively eliminating its opponents, including clans, families, and smaller militias, through public executions. This action aims to solidify Hamas's sole authority in Gaza, excluding the IDF, and to establish its dominance over any future administration in the territory.

Diplomatic Efforts and Future Negotiations

The arrival of US special envoy Steve Whit and Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law, in Israel is noted as an effort to mediate the return of Israeli hostage remains. Schindler acknowledged the significant leverage the US holds with Israel but suggested limited influence over Hamas. He emphasized the crucial role of Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey in influencing Hamas, particularly due to their financial ties.

Schindler reiterated the necessity of continuous negotiation for the subsequent stages of the process. He clarified that the current phase was not the beginning of the entire process but rather the commencement of the second stage, following the initial hostage exchange. He pointed out that even in this early stage, Hamas engaged in "games" by not releasing all the bodies it possessed.

Conflicting Reports on Rafa Incident and US Administration's Stance

Emily Gordin, an INTW correspondent in Jerusalem, provided further details on the incident in Rafa. Israeli authorities reported that militants fired an anti-tank missile and gunfire at IDF troops operating in the area to dismantle "terrorist infrastructure." In response, Israel initiated strikes in the area to dismantle tunnel shafts and military structures. However, questions remain about the identity of the militant group involved, whether it was Hamas or another faction, and whether the incident was a planned attack or a result of militants being trapped during tunnel dismantling.

Hamas has denied involvement and stated it lost contact with previous operational units in the area since the war resumed in March. Hamas alleges that Israel is using this incident as a pretext to restart the war.

Israel has labeled the incident a "blatant violation" of the ceasefire deal. Islam Beng, the far-right national security minister, has called for the resumption of the war, a stance consistent with his opposition to the ceasefire from the outset. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed a forceful response from the IDF.

The upcoming visit of US Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Whitkoff is intended to discuss these allegations and ensure the continuation of the deal. Despite the fragile nature of the ceasefire, the US administration appears committed to advancing the process. Donald Trump's promise of a "20-point plan" for Middle East peace is mentioned, though its details remain vague and require further negotiation between the parties. The incident in Rafa underscores the precariousness of achieving the next phase of the deal.