🚨 Is a MAJOR CRASH Incoming?! 🚨 Stock Squad Livestream 7:00PM EST

Key Concepts

• The "Taco Trade": A term used by the panel to describe market volatility driven by Donald Trump’s rhetoric, specifically his tendency to make aggressive threats (e.g., regarding Iran) and then pivot or "chicken out" to negotiate.
• Strait of Hormuz: A critical global oil chokepoint. The panel identifies this as the primary catalyst for current market instability.
• Perpetual Bid: The constant inflow of capital into the stock market via 401(k)s and retirement accounts from government and institutional employees, which provides a structural floor for asset prices.
• Rangebound Market: A state where the market lacks a clear trend, trading between specific support and resistance levels (e.g., 645–675 on the SPY).
• Leap Options: Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities; options contracts with expiration dates one to three years out.
• Jawboning: The act of using verbal rhetoric (often by politicians or central bankers) to influence market expectations and behavior without necessarily taking immediate policy action.

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1. Market Outlook and Geopolitical Context

The "Stock Squad" (Mo, Larry Jones, Keenan Grace, and Josh) emphasizes that the current market is entirely dictated by geopolitical tensions, specifically the conflict with Iran.

• The Oil Binary: Citing Larry Fink (BlackRock), the panel argues there is no "middle ground" for oil prices: they will either drop to $40/barrel if the conflict is resolved or spike to $150/barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains compromised.
• The "Hog" Warning: Josh invokes the classic Wall Street adage: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered." He warns that if the U.S. continues to escalate the conflict unnecessarily, the economy risks a severe recession.
• Technical Levels: The panel identifies the 645–675 range on the SPY as the current "neutral" zone. A breakout above 675 is required for a bullish trend, while a drop below 645 could trigger a 20–30% market downturn.

2. Investment Strategies and Plays

The speakers advocate for a combination of long-term holding and tactical trading:

• Keenan Grace: Focuses on Microsoft (MSFT) as a "leap option" opportunity, noting it is trading below its 200-week EMA. He also suggests using the 15-minute chart at the market open to identify daily trends for 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options.
• Larry Jones: Emphasizes dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into ETFs (like QQQ) and cyclical stocks (Carnival, American Airlines, Delta, Norwegian) during red days. He uses profits from short-term options trading to fund these long-term positions.
• Josh: Highlights Amazon (AMZN) as a core holding and expresses a willingness to "time travel" by buying high-quality tech stocks at 2025 price levels if the market retests Monday’s lows.

3. Methodologies and Frameworks

• The Two-Candle Rule: Josh explains that for a trend reversal to be confirmed, the market needs one weekly candle to close above a resistance level, followed by a second candle that holds and breaks the wick of the first.
• Risk Management: Mo emphasizes that successful trading is defined by how one handles losses. He documents an 80% win rate by cutting losses quickly (e.g., $385 or $900) and "penny and diming" back to profitability.
• The "Perpetual Bid" Theory: Keenan explains that the market is structurally rigged to rise over the long term due to the $24.5 billion monthly inflow from retirement accounts, which acts as a constant buying pressure regardless of short-term volatility.

4. Notable Quotes

• Larry Jones: "America never literally never goes on to foreign soil and just leaves. We taking stuff... We leaving there with something."
• Josh: "Trump, if you feel like you've been winning, it's time to lock in that gain... Don't go from some war machine to hog machine."
• Keenan Grace: "I'm either going to have more money or more shares. That's all that's going to happen."

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The panel concludes that while the market is currently in a precarious, rangebound state due to the uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and oil prices, the long-term outlook remains supported by the "perpetual bid" of institutional and retail retirement investing. The consensus is to avoid "chasing" the market, maintain a disciplined strategy of buying high-quality assets on dips, and use technical analysis to navigate the current volatility. The next two weeks are viewed as a critical juncture that will determine whether the market reaches new all-time highs or enters a significant, painful correction.