Iranian regime will not “go down without a fight,” expert says

Key Concepts

• Bazaris: Iranian merchants and shop owners historically supportive of the regime, now leading protests.
• Women, Life, Freedom Movement (2022): Previous large-scale protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini.
• Iranian Ethnic Minorities: Kurds and Baloch people advocating for greater rights and representation.
• Reza Pahlavi: The last Shah of Iran’s heir, advocating for regime change and non-violent protest.
• Regime Collapse Scenarios: Potential political and security implications following the failure of the current Iranian leadership.
• External Intervention: Potential roles and risks associated with US and Israeli involvement.

Iran Protests: A Deep Dive into the Current Unrest

Current Situation & Scale of Protests

Protests in Iran have entered their third week, driven by the country’s deteriorating economic situation. The unrest is significant, with reports indicating at least 12,000 deaths and over 10,000 arrests, according to sources and the Human Rights Activist News Agency respectively. This represents the largest wave of public unrest since the 2022 protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman arrested by Iran’s morality police.

Origins & Key Participants

Unusually, the initial impetus for the current protests came from the Bazaris – Iranian merchants and shop owners traditionally loyal to the Islamic regime. Their discontent stems from the country’s economic policies. These merchants played a crucial role in the success of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, providing financial support to the rebels, and have remained a key constituency ever since. Their current actions include street protests and widespread shop closures.

This movement has broadened to include several key groups:

• Student Groups: Drawing on a history of activism, including protests in 1999, the 2009 Green Movement, and the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” movement. Demonstrations are occurring at universities nationwide.
• Teachers: A nationwide letter of support from Iranian teachers demonstrates broad-based opposition.
• Ethnic Minorities: Kurds and Baloch people, long advocating for increased rights and representation within the Iranian government, are actively participating.
• Monarchists: Supporters of restoring the monarchy, rallying behind Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah’s heir. Pahlavi has publicly endorsed the protests, calling protestors “brave patriots” and advocating for non-violent resistance, specifically a nationwide chant of anti-regime slogans. He has also appealed to President Trump for intervention.

Calls for External Intervention & Potential Responses

Reza Pahlavi, in an interview with CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell, directly urged President Trump to take action against the Iranian regime “so this regime finally collapses.” Alyssa Eers, Director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, discussed potential US responses.

Eers highlighted that any intervention must be considered in terms of its objectives and potential impact. She noted that the Trump administration has already implemented non-military measures, such as tariffs on countries trading with Iran, and could further support protestors by circumventing the information blackout.

Regarding military intervention, Eers cautioned that while targeting the regime’s security forces could inflict pain, it could also strengthen their resolve to use violence against protestors. Trump reportedly stated that any intervention would not involve “boots on the ground.”

Post-Regime Collapse Scenarios

Eers emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the aftermath of a potential regime collapse. She noted the unprecedented size and demographic diversity of the current protests, building on the momentum of the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” movement. However, she believes the regime will not relinquish power easily.

Key questions remain:

• Political Organization: How will the protests organize themselves politically?
• Leadership: Can the movement coalesce around a central political figure?
• Security Apparatus: What will happen to the extensive security apparatus that has maintained control for decades?

Role of Israel & External Actors

The potential role of Israel was also addressed. Eers acknowledged that Israel and the US have weakened the regime through military actions over the past year. However, she cautioned against attempting to “tip the balance” from the outside, emphasizing the risks involved. She stressed that any sustainable outcome must be driven by the Iranian people themselves.

Quote:

“So this regime finally collapses.” – Reza Pahlavi, urging US intervention.

Technical Terms:

• Theocracy: A system of government in which priests rule in the name of God or a god.
• Morality Police: A specialized unit of Iranian law enforcement responsible for enforcing Islamic dress codes and social norms.
• Information Blackout: The deliberate suppression of information, often by a government, to control public opinion.

Synthesis & Conclusion

The ongoing protests in Iran represent a significant challenge to the current regime, fueled by economic hardship and a growing desire for political and social change. The unusual participation of the Bazaris, alongside established activist groups and ethnic minorities, indicates a broad and diverse base of opposition. While external actors like the US and Israel could potentially play a role, the ultimate outcome will depend on the ability of the Iranian people to organize and sustain their movement. The path forward remains uncertain, with significant questions surrounding the potential for regime collapse and the establishment of a new political order. The situation is highly volatile and requires careful consideration of the potential consequences of any intervention.