‘In excess’: Sources estimate Iranian dead protesters number over 16,500: Sheridan

Key Concepts

• Iran Protests (2023-2024): The scale, suppression, and lack of international attention surrounding recent protests in Iran.
• Geopolitical Significance of Greenland: The strategic importance of Greenland due to its location, potential mineral resources, and changing Arctic landscape.
• Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy: Trump’s unconventional approach to international relations, characterized by unilateral actions, transactional negotiations, and personal motivations.
• NATO Alliance: The role and potential response of NATO to a hypothetical conflict involving Greenland.
• Narcissistic Personality Disorder: A psychological assessment of potential motivations behind Trump’s actions regarding Greenland.

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Iran Protests: Severity and Lack of International Response

Greg Sheridan assesses the recent protests in Iran as the “most serious challenge the Iranian government has faced since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.” While acknowledging the difficulty in obtaining precise figures, he suggests the number of civilian deaths is “very strongly in excess of 16,500,” characterizing this as a “modest estimate” based on his sources. Despite the scale of the unrest, the protests have largely been confined to ethnic Iranian Iranians and some sympathetic individuals outside of Iran, with limited international outcry. Sheridan contrasts this with the lack of attention given to the 150,000 deaths in the Sudanese civil war and the Israel-Hamas conflict, noting a perceived disparity in concern from “the left.”

He emphasizes the regime’s resilience, highlighting the absence of “real cracks” within the government, including a lack of defections even among those considered moderates. Crucially, no segments of the Iranian military have refused orders to fire on citizens. Sheridan explains that dictatorships typically fall due to liberalization or internal elite conflict, neither of which are currently occurring in Iran. While potential actions by Donald Trump, such as military strikes or increased sanctions, could inflict harm, there is currently “no real sign that they’re cracking up.”

Greenland: Trump’s Pursuit and Geopolitical Implications

The discussion shifts to Donald Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland. Sheridan criticizes Trump’s rationale as having “no justification at all,” despite the territory’s strategic importance. Greenland is described as a “huge territory, much much bigger than France,” with increasing accessibility to mineral resources as the ice melts and potentially more navigable Arctic seaways.

The United States already maintains a military base in Greenland, welcomed by both Denmark and the Greenlandic population, and could establish further bases without issue. Trump’s stated concern about potential Russian or Chinese occupation is dismissed by Sheridan, who argues that both countries would be operating far from their home bases and that the United States, as a NATO ally, would be positioned to respond.

Sheridan posits that Trump’s motivations extend beyond security concerns, suggesting a connection to “Trump’s…narcissistic personality disorder and ego mania.” He believes Trump desires to be remembered as a leader who significantly expanded American territory, akin to the Louisiana Purchase or the Alaska purchase. He acknowledges the potential for “diabolical” consequences, including invading the territory of a NATO ally, but believes even Republicans would strongly oppose such a move.

Trump’s Negotiating Tactics and Potential Outcomes

Sheridan characterizes Trump’s pursuit of Greenland as a “typical Trump bluster to get people to the negotiating table and give him what he really wants.” He suggests this is a common tactic employed by Trump to achieve favorable outcomes. He further notes that a direct purchase of Greenland could be achieved by offering a substantial sum to the Greenlandic population – approximately $1 million per person, totaling $57 billion – which he deems a “bargain.”

Logical Connections and Overall Assessment

The conversation flows from a discussion of a current internal crisis (Iran) to a potential international dispute (Greenland), both framed within the context of global power dynamics and the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump’s foreign policy. Sheridan consistently applies a pragmatic and often critical lens to Trump’s actions, acknowledging occasional positive contributions while firmly condemning actions he deems irrational or unjustified. He emphasizes the importance of understanding Trump’s personality and negotiating style to anticipate his future moves.

Data and Statistics

• Iran Protests: Estimated 16,500+ civilian deaths (modest estimate).
• Sudan Civil War: Approximately 150,000 deaths.
• Greenland Size: Larger than France.
• Greenland Purchase Cost: Approximately $57 billion (based on $1 million per resident).
• British Military Support to Denmark/Greenland: One soldier.

Notable Quotes

• Greg Sheridan on Iran Protests: “I think [these protests] were the most serious challenge the Iranian government has faced since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.”
• Greg Sheridan on Trump and Greenland: “He has no justification for what he's doing at all. Not a speck of justification.”
• Greg Sheridan on Trump’s motivations: “I think it's really tied up with Trump's with the the dark side of the Trump personality, narcissistic personality disorder and ego mania.”
• Andrew Bolt on Greg Sheridan’s journalism: “one thing I admire about your journalism is that you tell the truth about Trump when he does good things and when he does bad things.”

Conclusion

The discussion highlights the complex and often unpredictable nature of contemporary geopolitics. The situation in Iran underscores the brutality of authoritarian regimes and the limitations of international response. Trump’s pursuit of Greenland exemplifies his unconventional approach to foreign policy, driven by a combination of strategic considerations, personal ambition, and a willingness to challenge established norms. Sheridan’s analysis emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of both the geopolitical landscape and the motivations of key actors, particularly Donald Trump, to navigate these challenges effectively.