‘This is Donald Trump we haven’t seen before’: US President supports Iranian protesters

Key Concepts

• Islamist-Stalinist Regime: A descriptor used for the current Iranian government, highlighting its authoritarian and ideological nature.
• Liberal Interventionism: The policy of intervening in other countries on grounds of promoting liberal values, often criticized for unfulfilled promises of support.
• Decapitation Strike: A military strategy aimed at removing key leadership figures to destabilize a regime.
• Sanctions: Economic penalties applied to a country to influence its policies.
• Cyber Interference: Using digital tools to disrupt or manipulate another country’s systems.

Iran Protests and Potential US Response: An Analysis

The Current Situation in Iran

The interview focuses on the ongoing protests in Iran following a violent crackdown by security forces, described as one of the most significant challenges to the Iranian regime since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Greg Sheridan characterizes the regime as an “Islamist-Stalinist” one, emphasizing its brutal and authoritarian nature. He notes that despite the scale of the protests and the reported killing of “thousands and thousands and thousands of Iranian civilians,” the regime has so far remained intact, lacking visible defections from within its ranks or disunity among security forces. Sheridan points out a historical pattern: “dictatorships often fall not because they’re too rough but when they start to liberalize,” referencing the fall of the Soviet Union and the Shah of Iran as examples.

Donald Trump’s Involvement & Shifting Stance

A key point of discussion is the unexpected involvement of US President Donald Trump, who has expressed support for the Iranian demonstrators, framing it as a matter of “human decency.” Sheridan describes this as a surprising shift, labeling Trump as a “neoconservative,” a “liberal internationalist,” and a figure “we haven’t seen before.” He welcomes Trump’s support but remains skeptical about the effectiveness of military intervention.

Prospects of US Military Action

The conversation addresses Trump’s hints at potential military action, including possible air strikes, signaled by his online statement, “Help is on its way.” Sheridan assesses the likelihood of a US strike as “genuinely impossible to predict.” While acknowledging Trump’s recent successes in Venezuela, Gaza, and a strike on Iranian military facilities, he argues that a military strike is unlikely to materially aid the protesters or lead to regime collapse. He believes the Iranian system is “pretty solid” and capable of quickly replacing lost leadership, rendering a “decapitation strike” ineffective.

Sheridan raises a critical point regarding Trump’s rhetoric: stating support and promising help creates a “big moral obligation” to deliver on that promise, referencing the criticisms of “liberal interventionism” where sacrifices are made based on unfulfilled promises.

Alternative Courses of Action

Sheridan suggests that non-military measures, such as increasing sanctions or engaging in cyber interference with Iranian state security forces, are more plausible and potentially effective options for the US. He notes that cancelling negotiations with Iran would make inaction on Trump’s part appear “foolish” given his previous strong statements.

Historical Context & Regime Stability

The discussion highlights the historical precedent of regimes collapsing after attempts at liberalization, rather than through direct external force. This suggests that internal pressures for reform, rather than external intervention, are more likely to bring about change in Iran. The lack of internal dissent within the regime and the security forces’ willingness to use lethal force are presented as key factors contributing to the regime’s current stability.

Notable Quotes

• “Dictatorships often fall not because they’re too rough but when they start to liberalize.” – Greg Sheridan
• “This is Donald Trump the neoconservative. This is Donald Trump the liberal internationalist. This is Donald Trump we haven’t seen before.” – Greg Sheridan
• “One of the long-term criticisms of liberal interventionism has been that you get people to sacrifice their lives in a good cause on the promise of help that never quite arrives.” – Greg Sheridan

Synthesis/Conclusion

The interview paints a picture of a deeply entrenched Iranian regime that, despite facing significant protests, appears resilient. While Donald Trump’s support for the demonstrators is welcomed, the prospect of a US military intervention is viewed as unlikely to be effective and potentially counterproductive. The discussion emphasizes the importance of considering alternative, non-military strategies, such as sanctions and cyber interference, while acknowledging the political pressure on Trump to take action following his strong rhetoric. Ultimately, the analysis suggests that the fate of the Iranian regime will likely be determined by internal dynamics rather than external intervention.