How will Phase 1 of a Gaza ceasefire play out? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Gaza Ceasefire Deal (Phase One): An agreement outlining immediate steps for a temporary cessation of hostilities, hostage release, and aid delivery.
• Hostage Release: The primary objective for Israel in Phase One, involving the release of living Israeli hostages by Hamas.
• Humanitarian Aid: A critical component of the deal, allowing increased entry of supplies into Gaza.
• Israeli Political Coalition: The ruling government in Israel, facing internal divisions over the ceasefire deal, particularly from far-right ministers.
• Religious Zionist Party: A far-right Israeli political party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, opposing aspects of the deal.
• Palestinian Prisoners: Individuals held by Israel, whose potential release is a contentious point for some Israeli ministers.
• Disarmament of Hamas: A major sticking point for any long-term resolution, concerning Hamas's military capabilities.
• Technocrat Committee: A proposed interim governing body for Gaza, as part of the Egyptian plan for post-conflict administration.
• Doha Attack: An Israeli strike in Qatar targeting Hamas leadership, identified as a pivotal moment that pushed parties towards negotiation.
• Humanitarian Catastrophe: The severe and widespread suffering in Gaza due to destruction, displacement, and lack of resources.

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Phase One Ceasefire Deal: Immediate Implementation and Terms

The proposed Phase One of the Gaza ceasefire deal is set to unfold rapidly following Israeli cabinet approval.

• Approval and Commencement: As soon as the Israeli cabinet approves the deal, the ceasefire immediately goes into effect.
• Israeli Actions:
  • Troop Withdrawal: Israeli troops will have 24 hours to withdraw to an agreed line.
  • Aid Entry: Israel will allow "hundreds of aid trucks every day" to enter Gaza, bringing much-needed supplies.
• Hamas Actions:
  • Hostage Release: Hamas has 72 hours to release the "20 remaining living hostages," meaning this is expected to happen by Monday at the latest.
  • Deceased Hostages: The return of the remains of deceased hostages may take longer, as Hamas claims it does not know the location of the bodies in some cases.

Reactions to the Deal

The announcement of the deal has elicited varied and complex reactions from different stakeholders.

• In Israel: Public Joy vs. Political Opposition
  • Public Sentiment: Ordinary Israelis are "incredibly happy" that the hostages are finally set to return, a day many have been waiting for, campaigning for "weeks, for months really, for almost two years." This joy is, however, "mixed with a degree of disbelief."
  • Far-Right Opposition: Far-right ministers within the Israeli coalition government, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (leader of the Religious Zionist party) and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have expressed strong opposition. Smotrich stated he supports the release of hostages but "opposes the deal if it halts the war permanently, if it releases Palestinian dangers (prisoners), and if it signals a return to peace negotiations," which he views as a "risk to Israel's security."
  • Government Stability: There is uncertainty whether these ministers will leave the government, potentially collapsing the coalition. However, opposition leaders have signaled they would "cast a safety net" to ensure the deal's fulfillment.
• In Gaza: Jubilation Mixed with Fear and Ongoing Suffering
  • Initial Joy: Palestinians are "jubilant at the prospect of an end to this war," expressing "a feeling of joy" and relief after "two years" of suffering. Many described it as "a joy to be recorded in history" and "the day of relief from God."
  • Humanitarian Catastrophe: This joy is "disturbed by this humanitarian catastrophe and warnings from the future." The territory has been "raised to the ground," with "80 to 85% of Gaza strip destroyed."
  • Casualties and Displacement: According to the Hamas Health Ministry, "67,000 people" have been killed, representing "about 12% of the population growth," mostly women and children. "1.9 million" Palestinians have been displaced multiple times.
  • Vulnerable Populations: There are "55,000 orphans," "more than 40,000 widows," and "about 5,000 amputated children" who have lost limbs. Tens of thousands of children suffer from malnutrition and lack medication.
  • Lingering Fears: Despite the ceasefire, "Israeli strikes continue to rain onto northern Gaza," reminding Palestinians that the war is "not over yet." There are fears Israel will "resume its offensive once the Israeli hostages are released" and that a ceasefire might resemble the situation in Lebanon, where "regular Israeli air strikes do still continue."
  • Danger of Return: People are "fed up from displacement" but are warned not to return home yet, as Israelis "will not show any mercy on them." A family attempting to return to Gaza City "two days ago" was reportedly killed.
• International Perspective: German Chancellor's Optimism
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed optimism, stating that "developments in Israel give us cause for optimism" and there is a "significant opportunity to reach an agreement with Hamas in the coming hours." He sees a "chance that the hostages will be released this week and that the Israeli army will withdraw from the Gaza Strip as proposed in the 20-point plan put forward by the US president and the Israeli government."

Political Dynamics and Challenges within Israel

The deal's approval within Israel's government highlights internal tensions and external pressures.

• Far-Right Opposition and Government Stability: While expectations were that it would be "much harder for Netanyahu to get the votes" from extreme right members, they "seem to be willing to let that happen." This could be due to "very big public demand" for hostage return or "mighty and strong" American pressure.
• Netanyahu's Position and External Pressure: The deal provides Israel with a "very good timing" for a break. DW Middle East analyst Shani Rosanis notes that "Israel needs this time now," and the question of whether fighting will resume "remains to be seen."

Ongoing Military Activity and Tensions

Even as the ceasefire deal was announced, military activities continued, underscoring the volatile situation.

• Pre-Ceasefire Operations: Israel "continued its attacks in the Gaza Strip" after the deal was announced, with "huge clouds of smoke" observed. The Israeli military stated it is "making operational preparations to implement the first phase of the Gaza deal" and warned Palestinians that "northern Gaza remains a dangerous combat zone."
• Palestinian Warnings Against Return: Ahmad Shaba of the Palestinian NGO Network reiterated warnings for displaced Palestinians not to return to Gaza City or northern Gaza due to continued danger, citing a recent incident where a family trying to return was killed.

Driving Forces Behind the Deal

Several factors converged to make this deal possible after previous failed attempts.

• Public Demand and US Pressure: The "growing outcry in the Israeli public" demanding the return of hostages, coupled with "mighty and strong" American pressure, played a significant role.
• "Now or Never" Sentiment: There was a feeling among parties that "it's now or never," fearing a spiral "out of control" if they didn't seize the "lifeline that the Americans and negotiating teams are offering."
• The Doha Attack as a Catalyst: The Israeli attack in Doha, Qatar, targeting Hamas leadership, was identified as a "very crucial moment." While controversial, Israel viewed it as a "win-win" – either eliminating Hamas leadership or creating a "shock effect" that made negotiations possible and forced Hamas to realize they are "never safe" and need to make "concrete compromises." For the Americans and Arab allies, it was a "wakeup call" that things could "go very much array" and bring the region into a "wider war."

Long-Term Challenges and Future of Gaza

Beyond Phase One, significant hurdles remain for a lasting resolution and the future of Gaza.

• Phase Two Hurdles: Disarmament and Governance: The "bigger hurdles" for Phase Two include the "disarmament of Hamas" and the "mechanism of governing of Gaza." Hamas has indicated it would not "fully giving away arms" but would dissolve into a new Palestinian entity.
• Humanitarian Catastrophe and Rebuilding Efforts: It will "take decades to rebuild the territory." The immediate challenges include ensuring aid delivery, addressing the needs of orphans, widows, and amputated children, and facilitating the safe return of displaced people.
• Future Leadership: Egyptian Plan: The Egyptian plan proposes a "technocrat committee that will govern Gaza for a while," followed by "elections" to achieve "unity of the Palestinians."
• Guarantees and Leverage: The success of future phases depends on "guarantees and assurances" from mediators like Qatar, Turkey, and the US, who have "vouched and pre-promise both sides that they are committed to this process in whole both phases." The US plan, as seen by Trump, "goes far beyond Gaza into the whole Middle East and trying to build a new vision for it." Israel is seen as having "very little leverage" and will "have to comply" as long as the US pushes.

Conclusion: Main Takeaways

The Gaza ceasefire deal represents a critical, albeit fragile, moment of de-escalation driven by intense public pressure, humanitarian urgency, and international mediation. While Phase One offers immediate relief through hostage release and increased aid, it is overshadowed by deep political divisions within Israel, profound suffering and fear in Gaza, and significant unresolved issues concerning Hamas's future, Gaza's governance, and long-term regional stability. The deal's sustainability hinges on the commitment of all parties and the continued leverage exerted by international actors, particularly the United States, to navigate the complex challenges of disarmament, reconstruction, and political reconciliation.