Has Putin changed his mind on meeting Zelensky? | BBC Ukrainecast

Key Concepts:

• Zalinski's diplomatic efforts in Washington
• Potential Trump-Putin-Zalinski meeting
• Western security guarantees for Ukraine
• Russian public opinion on the war
• Motivation of Russian soldiers
• Effectiveness of economic sanctions on Russia
• Trade relations between the US and Russia
• Putin's approach to Trump
• Prospects for future elections in Ukraine
• Kremlin's view of Zalinski's legitimacy

1. Zalinski's Diplomatic Efforts and Potential Meeting:

• Vladimir Zalinski engaged in a "industrial-scale charm offensive" in Washington, D.C., meeting with European political leaders and Donald Trump to discuss strategies for compelling Russia to negotiate peace.
• Trump claimed a meeting between Zalinski and Putin was "closer than ever," suggesting a "trilad" meeting could lead to ending the war.
• The Kremlin downplayed Trump's claim.
• The West is divided, with America rejecting Europe's call for a ceasefire as a prerequisite for negotiations.
• Washington softened its stance on security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

2. Western Security Guarantees for Ukraine:

• James Waterhouse notes a potential shift in the US position on security guarantees for Ukraine, specifically collective military assurance.
• The specifics of these guarantees remain unclear (air support, intelligence sharing, ammunition).
• Europe and Ukraine seek these guarantees because Europe alone is insufficient to deter Russian aggression.
• There are "huge question marks and gaping gaps in detail" regarding how the West would act as a backstop for Ukraine's security.
• Ukraine has "next to little confidence" in Western-backed deals, citing the Budapest Memorandum as an example of broken promises.

3. Russian Public Opinion and Motivation of Soldiers:

• Steve Rosenberg states that Russians who consume state television believe the West is obstructing peace in Ukraine.
• However, many Russians want the war to end due to its increasing impact on their lives (relatives fighting, injuries, deaths).
• Recent polling indicates a growing preference for a negotiated settlement over continued war.
• The Russian government is offering "huge sums of money" to attract volunteers to fight in Ukraine.
• While some Russian soldiers may believe they are defending the "motherland," financial incentives are a key motivator.

4. Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions:

• Rita from London questions whether economic sanctions can change Putin's actions, given his control and apparent disregard for Russian quality of life.
• Steve Rosenberg acknowledges that Russia has survived numerous sanctions, but the Russian economy is "creaking," with a widening budget deficit and falling oil and gas revenues.
• Sanctions are making it harder for the Russian government to fund the war.
• The impact of sanctions depends on factors like whether India and China continue to buy Russian oil.
• The only concrete step Donald Trump has taken is to give the green light for Europe and Ukraine to buy US weaponry.

5. US-Russia Trade Relations:

• Andy McQuiston asks about Putin's claim of a 20% growth in trade between the US and Russia since Trump took office.
• Steve Rosenberg confirms that while there may be a 20% increase, it starts from a "very low base" after trade declined following the war.
• The US continues to buy fertilizer, palladium, and uranium from Russia.
• India has pointed out the "double standards" of the US urging them to stop buying Russian oil while continuing to purchase other goods.

6. Putin's Approach to Trump and Potential Meeting with Zalinski:

• The Kremlin has repeatedly emphasized the potential for profitable business deals between Russia and America.
• Putin may have mentioned the 20% trade increase to impress Trump, given his business background.
• Putin has stated that "conditions have to be right" for him to meet Zalinski, implying he wants to get everything he wants.
• A meeting with Zalinski would be a concession from Putin only if Zalinski signed Ukraine's capitulation.
• Russia wants to raise the status of delegates at the next direct talks between Ukraine and Russia.

7. Prospects for Future Elections in Ukraine:

• Elections in Ukraine are currently on hold due to martial law.
• Holding free and fair elections is difficult due to the occupation of territory and ongoing attacks.
• Technically, elections would not take place if the war continues for another five years.
• There is a growing view that Zilinsky has the appetite to keep going.
• The Kremlin has been working to delegitimize Zilinski, claiming his term has expired.
• Putin does not want to be seen negotiating with Zilinski as an equal.

8. Conclusion:

The discussion highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of the conflict in Ukraine. While diplomatic efforts are ongoing, significant obstacles remain, including divisions within the West, Russia's unwavering objectives, and the challenges of ensuring Ukraine's long-term security. The effectiveness of economic sanctions is debated, and the potential for a negotiated settlement hinges on Putin's willingness to compromise, which appears unlikely at this time. The future of Ukraine's leadership and the possibility of elections remain uncertain, further complicating the path towards a resolution.