Will Presidents Trump, Zelensky and Putin meet to make a deal to end the Ukraine war? | BBC Newscast

Key Concepts

• Transatlantic Unity
• Security Guarantees for Ukraine
• Potential Meeting between Putin and Zelensky
• Coalition of the Willing
• NATO Membership and Article 5
• Territorial Dispute vs. Control over Ukraine
• Fact-checking Trump's claims of resolving wars

Analysis of Washington Meetings and Potential Outcomes

The discussion begins with an assessment of the meetings held in Washington, focusing on the interactions between President Trump, President Zelensky, and other world leaders. While the meetings were presented with a sense of conviviality and optimism, the actual achievements and substance are questioned.

• Avoidance of Conflict: A key point is that the meetings successfully avoided any major rows or disputes, which is seen as a positive outcome in itself. James Landale notes, "the avoidance of row the avoidance of controversy and and dispute uh you know is not to be underestimated." He also suggests that a "physical demonstration of transatlantic unity" is a negative signal for Russia.
• Uncertainty Regarding Security Guarantees: The potential for a bilateral meeting between Trump and Zelensky and the US's willingness to participate in post-war Ukraine security guarantees are discussed. However, many questions and uncertainties remain unanswered.
• Trump's Perspective on Security Guarantees: Asma Khaled analyzes Trump's interview on Fox News, where he suggested the US could offer aerial support but reiterated his stance against putting US troops on the ground. This aligns with his campaign promise of reducing US involvement in foreign wars.
• Shift in Conversation: Asma notes a shift in the conversation around security guarantees since a February meeting where Trump was primarily interested in a mineral deal. The current discussions suggest security guarantees are now a viable part of the conversation, although their tangible form remains unclear.
• Vitali's Skepticism: Vitali expresses skepticism, stating, "Talk talk talk is my take on it. So many words and I look forward so much to some action really something that will help people from will stop people from being killed." He emphasizes that discussions focused on security guarantees and a potential Zelensky-Putin meeting, but the details of the security guarantees remain unknown.
• Zelensky's Perspective: Vitali reports that Zelensky mentioned funding for the Ukrainian army, weapons production in Ukraine, and intelligence sharing as part of the security guarantees. However, Zelensky's non-answer regarding new weapons packages suggests uncertainty about the specifics.

Progress on Formulating Security Guarantees

The discussion shifts to the progress in formulating security guarantees, highlighting the UK's involvement and the existing groundwork.

• UK's Role: James mentions that the head of the UK armed forces has gone to Washington for detailed conversations about security guarantees.
• Building on Previous Discussions: The current discussions are not starting from scratch, as previous conversations about a "coalition of the willing" and potential roles for different countries have already taken place.
• Technical Details: James outlines the technical aspects being considered, such as which air forces will provide squadrons, where they will be located, and how they will be rotated.
• American Involvement: The key question is how the American contribution will fit into the existing plans, given their public commitment to engage in the process.
• US Involvement in Coalition of the Willing: The US has been closely tied to European discussions at a military level, but clarity from the White House was needed to determine the extent of American involvement.

Potential Meeting Between Putin and Zelensky

The possibility of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is explored, along with the challenges and potential outcomes.

• White House's View: The White House believes a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is possible, followed by a potential trilateral agreement involving Trump.
• Ukrainian Perspective: The Ukrainian president's office stated that Putin suggested Zelensky come to Moscow for the meeting, which is deemed unacceptable by the Ukrainians. Asma suggests this may be a way for Putin to set untenable terms and effectively decline the meeting.
• Trump's Desire for Peace: Trump is portrayed as having a strong desire for peace and wanting the war to end quickly, but he has found it more difficult to achieve than initially anticipated.
• Previous Meetings: James notes that Russia and Ukraine have met at different levels throughout the conflict, including early meetings on various borders.
• Lavrov-Rubio Meeting: There was a suggestion of a potential meeting between Lavrov and Rubio (foreign ministerial level) before any Zelensky-Putin meeting.
• Need for Trust: Vitali emphasizes the need for Russia to keep its word this time, given the history of violated agreements. He argues that the threat of a meaningful response from the West is crucial to deter Russia from violating any new agreements.
• NATO Membership as a Sticking Point: The discussion touches on the fact that Putin has made it clear that NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table, and Trump may be willing to negotiate on this point to achieve a deal.
• Vitali's Counterargument: Vitali questions why Putin is so strongly opposed to Ukraine joining NATO when he doesn't seem as concerned about other Russian neighbors like the Baltic states or Finland being NATO members. He suggests that Putin wants Ukraine to be defenseless.

Analysis of Maps and Territorial Control

The conversation turns to the maps used during the meetings and the implications for understanding the conflict.

• Map Discussion: James discusses a photo of Trump and Zelensky looking at a map of Ukraine, noting the potential for errors and the importance of detail.
• Territorial Dispute vs. Control: James suggests that the focus on the map indicates that Trump and the White House may still view the conflict as a territorial dispute rather than a broader effort by Russia to control Ukraine.
• Zelensky's Map: Zelensky mentioned that his aide brought a map to the White House, which helped change the Americans' minds about what Ukraine controlled.
• UK's Assessment: James references a UK Defense Intelligence post suggesting it would take Russia 4.4 years to gain full control of the territories it partially controls in Ukraine.
• Interpretations of UK Post: Adam interprets the post as a tacit admission that the mission is now to stop Russia from gaining more territory, while James sees it as an illustration of the military importance of the territory and the difficulty of Russia conquering it.

Fact-Checking Trump's Claims

The podcast addresses a listener's question about Trump's claims of resolving multiple wars.

• Trump's Claims: Trump has claimed to have settled six or seven wars in the last few months.
• Asma's Fact-Check: Asma provides a list of conflicts that the Trump administration is likely referring to: India-Pakistan skirmish, Iran-Israel war, Thailand and Cambodia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Rwanda and Congo. She notes that the other two are murkier, possibly Kosovo and Ethiopia-Egypt.
• Unresolved Wars: Asma points out that the two biggest wars Trump inherited, in Gaza and Ukraine, remain unresolved.

Conclusion

The podcast episode provides a detailed analysis of the meetings in Washington, the potential for security guarantees for Ukraine, and the challenges of achieving a lasting peace. While the meetings were presented as positive, many uncertainties remain regarding the specifics of security guarantees and the willingness of all parties to compromise. The discussion highlights the complexities of the conflict and the need for concrete action to stop the violence.