Global power shift: Trump, Xi and the end of rules-based order? | Berlin Briefing Podcast

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript, maintaining the original language and technical precision:

Key Concepts

• Rules-Based International Order: A system of international relations based on agreed-upon laws, norms, and institutions, aiming for predictability and cooperation.
• Realpolitik: A foreign policy based on practical considerations of national interest and power, rather than ideological or moral concerns.
• Hard Power: The use of military and economic might to influence others.
• Soft Power: The use of attraction and persuasion to influence others, often through culture and values.
• Normative Power: The ability to shape international norms and values.
• Economic Coercion: The use of economic pressure to influence a state's behavior.
• Authoritarian State Capitalism: An economic system characterized by state control and authoritarian governance.
• Oligarchic Tech Supremacy Capitalism: A capitalist system dominated by a few powerful tech companies and oligarchs.
• Transactionalism: An approach to international relations focused on immediate, mutually beneficial deals rather than long-term alliances or shared values.
• Multipolar Paradigm: A global system with multiple centers of power.
• Zero-Sum Game: A situation where one party's gain is another party's loss.
• Global South: A term often used to refer to developing countries, particularly those in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
• Existential Crisis (UN): A severe threat to the fundamental existence and relevance of the United Nations.

Summary

Olaf Scholz's Declaration and the Shift in Global Order

The discussion begins with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's unprecedented statement in a newspaper interview declaring a "de facto suspension of the rules-based international order." This statement is analyzed as a stark acknowledgment of a new global reality where "power rules," specifically "hard power," and where international law is frequently disregarded. Scholz also posits that Europe currently lacks the capacity to "thrive and survive and shape this world."

Key Points:

• Scholz's analysis identifies a world dominated by great power conflict and a decline in adherence to international law.
• He explicitly states that Europe is not equipped to navigate this new landscape.
• The statement is characterized as a display of "honest realpolitik analysis."
• However, Scholz did not pledge concrete actions for Germany or the EU to actively defend the rule of law.
• His remarks suggest a resignation to a transitional phase where "strength will once again play a major role and rule-based agreements will fade into the background."

Contrast with Angela Merkel and the Evolution of German Policy

The transcript contrasts Scholz's current stance with that of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who, upon Donald Trump's election in 2016, emphasized shared values like democracy, freedom, and respect for the rule of law, offering close cooperation.

Key Points:

• Merkel's approach was based on the assumption of a stable, rules-based order and secure US guarantees.
• Scholz, in contrast, recognizes a fundamentally new world order dominated by great power politics.
• He argues that defending key values and interests now requires "power," not just "soft power" or "normative power."
• The idea of Europe as a purely "normative power" is dismissed as a "fantasy."
• Scholz's statement implies that Germany and the EU are currently "weak" in terms of power projection.

US Perspective on German Leadership and Trump's Approach

Enis P, reporting from Washington, notes that Scholz's directness has been appreciated in the US, with Germany being seen as finally having a leader who understands its global role and economic strength.

Key Points:

• There's a perception that past German policy naively mixed up values and interests, particularly in relation to the US.
• Donald Trump's approach is described as "clearly interest-driven," with a focus on "great deals" and business.
• Scholz is seen as a "strong leader" who understands the changing times and the inadequacy of solely talking about shared values.
• The example of the ceasefire agreement in Egypt is cited, where European leaders were present but had no substantive role, highlighting a lack of influence.
• Trump's interaction with Scholz at this event, where he appeared to struggle to recall his name, illustrates his transactional and self-centered approach, where he prioritizes immediate US interests over European ones or the nuances of transatlantic relationships.
• Trump's primary concern is making deals that benefit the US, with little regard for the perceived strength or weakness of European leaders.

Challenges to International Law and German Policy-Making

The discussion delves into the practical implications of a diminished reliance on international law, using the example of the US government shutdown affecting German employees of the US military in Germany.

Key Points:

• The US military's failure to adhere to German labor law during the shutdown highlights a breakdown in fundamental legal commitments.
• German policymakers are seen as ill-equipped to "thrive and survive" in a competition of systems, particularly against "oligarchic tech supremacy capitalism" (Trump) and "authoritarian state capitalism" (Xi).
• There's a recognized need to rebuild Germany's technological base, foster innovation, and enhance deterrence against aggression and economic coercion.
• The importance of supporting international organizations and humanitarian assistance is acknowledged, but with fewer resources available.
• Germany needs to rethink its priorities and identify which parts of the international order to support and how to rebuild institutions with reduced funding.
• The UN, despite its challenges, is seen as surviving the Cold War and still valuable for middle and smaller powers. The current environment is described as more "hostile and acrimonious."

China's Strategic Positioning and the Global South

The transcript examines China's rhetoric on international law, particularly in light of its own violations (e.g., in the South China Sea). Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's statements at the Munich Security Conference are analyzed.

Key Points:

• Wang Yi criticized countries that believe "might makes right" and operate under the "law of the jungle," advocating for a multipolar paradigm that is not in disarray.
• His message is seen as a strategic play for public opinion in the "non-West."
• The "rules-based international order" is argued to have lacked significant buy-in from the non-West, often perceived as a cover for Western self-interest.
• Donald Trump's blatant disregard for international law, without shame or pretense, is contrasted with previous administrations that masked their actions.
• Despite its own transgressions, China is perceived by many as a force of stability compared to the US under Trump, appearing more rational and predictable.
• This perception is concerning, as it allows China to make credible arguments even when not based on facts.
• China's policy of creating dependencies in the Global South is also noted.

The United Nations in Crisis

The discussion turns to the state of the United Nations, with a pessimistic outlook on its current existential crisis.

Key Points:

• Donald Trump's stance on funding and his questioning of the UN's effectiveness are seen as potentially leading other countries to withdraw support.
• The Global South often feels unrepresented in the UN.
• The UN is described as a "huge bureaucracy" facing increasing scrutiny regarding its necessity and outcomes.
• There is a lack of clear strategy within the UN to address threats to its funding and relevance.
• The UN's legitimacy is fading, particularly in countries not directly impacted by World War II.
• While the UN's specialized agencies face funding crunches, the General Assembly and Security Council are expected to persist due to the Global South's representation.

Trump's Role and the Future of International Order

The transcript explores the complexity of Donald Trump's approach, acknowledging his role in facilitating peace agreements, albeit through unconventional and self-interested means.

Key Points:

• Trump's focus on making deals and achieving peace, even if for personal gain (e.g., Nobel Peace Prize), is seen as potentially more effective than value-driven speeches with no outcomes.
• His honesty and transparency about his intentions are highlighted as a positive aspect, allowing others to know where they stand.
• This clarity is seen as beneficial for Germany and Europe, enabling them to prepare for dealing with him.
• Crucially, the sentiment is that the shift away from the pre-Trump era of international relations is permanent, regardless of who is in the White House. Germany and Europe must become stronger and more self-reliant.

The Path Forward: Rebuilding Strength and Reforming Institutions

The conclusion emphasizes the need for Germany and Europe to build their own strength and reform international institutions.

Key Points:

• Olaf Scholz's directness is praised for not "putting lipstick on a pig" and for acknowledging the reality of the situation.
• Germany needs to build its own strength (economic, technological, military) to defend its interests in a volatile world.
• The "fantasy" of being a normative power that stabilizes the international system is dispelled; it was the US's hard power that underpinned the system.
• The current environment, where countries like Russia and China feel empowered to disregard international law without punishment, necessitates a change.
• Germany's interest in a functioning international order where international law is adhered to remains, given its size and reliance on such a system.
• The possibility of the US rediscovering an interest in a functioning rules-based order is uncertain and depends on future political developments.
• Uncertainty is a major concern for business leaders in both Europe and the United States.
• The future of the international order is in flux, and "unthinkable" is no longer a relevant concept.

Conclusion

The discussion concludes that the rules-based international order, as previously understood, is effectively suspended. Germany and Europe face a stark reality where power dynamics and national interests are paramount. While the United Nations is in crisis, its institutions may persist, but their effectiveness will depend on renewed commitment and reform. The key takeaway is the urgent need for Germany and Europe to bolster their own strength and capabilities to navigate a more volatile and power-centric global landscape, regardless of future US administrations. The era of relying solely on shared values or the benevolence of a hegemonic power is over.